Hopes are running high that European leaders may finally agree on a plan to address the continent's debt crisis at a make-or-break gathering on Friday. Summit speculation is likely to dominate this week's headlines but scheduled data releases elsewhere in the world also have a story to tell. Here is a preview of key global events to watch in the economic week ahead.
Europe
A meeting of French and German leaders on Monday, a rates decision from the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday and a gathering of European Union (EU) member nations on Friday are likely to dominate global economic news in the week ahead.
On Monday, Germany's Angela Merkel and France's Nicholas Sarkozy will meet to discuss their plans for greater fiscal integration in Europe. Expectations are high that the two leaders will agree on a joint proposal to be presented to all 27 EU heads later this week.
A plethora of recent news reports suggest that the plan is likely to include a call for close monitoring of national tax and spend policies and sanctions for non-compliant member states.
Although the two leaders appear to agree on broad strokes, some disagreements remain.
Germany wants centralised budgetary control to be enforced by the European Court of Justice. France would prefer a less formal process. France also wants immediate crisis fighting measures such as euro bonds and a greater role for the ECB included in the proposal. Germany opposes both measures. Markets are hoping that the two leaders will work out their differences in time for this week's summit.
Between the two meetings, attention will shift to an ECB meeting on Thursday. Given Europe's deteriorating economic outlook, most economists expect policymakers to announce a 0.25% cut to the bank's current 1.25% rate.
At his post-meeting press conference, ECB president Mario Draghi is likely to face extensive questions on the bank's willingness to provide additional aid to Europe's debt-laden countries by stepping up bond purchases. In a speech to the European Parliament last week, Draghi hinted that the bank may be willing to take more aggressive action but only if the continent's politicians act first.
Economists, investors and political leaders across the world are hoping that this action will occur at Friday's summit. Given the rapid deterioration of the European situation, they have pointedly signalled to the continent's leaders that, this time, failure is simply not an option.
United States
Beyond developments in Europe, new data on America's manufacturing and services sectors, labour market and foreign trade will attract investor attention in the week ahead.
Two data releases, scheduled to occur simultaneously on Monday, will provide insight into America's manufacturing and services sectors. Both the commerce department's factory orders data and the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) non-manufacturing survey results will be in focus as the trading week begins.
Factory order data shows how busy America's manufacturers will be in the months ahead as they work to fill the orders they have received. Analysts' expect orders fell 0.3% in October following a rise of 0.3% in September.
ISM's data will provide an insight into America's non-manufacturing sectors — also referred to as the country's services sector — which accounts for roughly 70% of private-sector economic output and employment. An index reading above 50 indicates expansion. Below 50 indicates contraction. Analysts expect an uptick to 53.9 in November from 52.9 in October.
On Thursday, markets will shift their attention to weekly jobless claims data. New claims rose unexpectedly last week to 402 000, well above a consensus forecast of 393 000.
Economists expect this week's release to again fall below the psychologically important 400 000 mark.
Finally, on Friday, economists will get a snapshot of America's trade situation as the government releases import and export data for October. Economists expect that the world's largest economy's trade deficit increased slightly from $43.1-billion in September to $43.4-billion in October.
Asia
Markets are awaiting the release of a slew of economic data from China, the world's second largest economy, this week. Data on fixed investments, industrial output, consumer spending and inflation are all slated for release.
The two key inflation measures are likely to garner the most scrutiny. Consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) data are both scheduled for release by government officials on Thursday.
The annual rate of consumer price rises fell from 6.1% in September to 5.5% in October but politically volatile food inflation is still recording double digit annual gains. The annual rate of growth for producer prices also eased in October to 5% from 6.5% in September. Analysts generally expect to see a further drop in both measures in November's data. This would be welcome news for Chinese authorities.
Two forward-looking measures of Chinese manufacturing data released this past week showed that the country's economy appears to be slowing significantly. Recent survey results from the state-sponsored China Federation of Logistics and Planning fell into negative territory for the first time since February 2009. A similar measure from HSBC hit its weakest reading since March 2009, indicating a stark deterioration in business conditions.
A slow growth, high inflation environment presents a difficult policy dilemma to Chinese officials. Tight monetary policy — consisting of high interest rates, reserve requirements and other measures — reins in inflation but can stunt economic growth. Loose monetary policy has the opposite effect. By making money and credit more readily available, it stimulates economic growth but also feeds price rises.
Over the coming year, this will likely be China's chief policy conundrum. With anaemic growth expected in the world's other two economic powerhouses — the US and EU — markets are hoping that China is able to prop-up world growth by finding a precise policy balance.
South Africa
As with the rest of the world, South African markets will be following developments in Europe closely in the week ahead. But a number of domestic data releases may also generate headlines.
On Wednesday, Statistics South Africa will release wholesale, motor and retail trade data for October. On an annual basis, wholesale trade rose 9.5%, motor trade 20.4% and retail sales 8.3% in September.
Although the rate of wholesale trade growth is expected to have increased in October, both motor and retail sales growth is expected to have declined.
On Thursday, the Reserve Bank will release its bulletin for the third quarter. Economists are likely to scour the report for information on South Africa's current account balance, a measure of the country's trade in goods and services. Previous figures showed that South Africa's current account gap increased to 3.3% of gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter from 3.1% in the first. This quarter's data is expected to show a further widening.
Also on Thursday, Statistics South Africa will release mining and manufacturing data for October. Mining data disappointed throughout the July to September quarter and October's numbers are not expected to paint a brighter picture. Manufacturing data is expected to show that growth in the sector slowed in October after healthy gains in the previous two months.
- Matt Quigley writes the weekly economic preview for the Mail & Guardian. He is CEO of African Foresight Network, a former divisional director at the US treasury department's office of the comptroller of the currency and a former policy analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.