/ 20 May 2013

Economic week ahead: A great deal of talk

Economic Week Ahead: A Great Deal Of Talk

Over the coming days, global markets will take their cues from speeches by the heads of the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan along with a series of closely followed data releases. Here is your guide to the week ahead.

United States
America's central bank will feature prominently in this week's economic news. Federal Reserve chairperson Ben Bernanke will testify about the central bank's outlook for the world's biggest economy to Congress on Wednesday. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent policy meeting will be released the same day.

Markets will pay close attention to both events. The big question on everyone's mind is when the Fed will begin to reduce its latest quantitative easing programme, an $85-billion per month bond buying initiative.

Beyond the Fed, investors will be paying close attention to a series of housing-related data releases this week. The National Association of Realtors will release last month's existing home sales data on Wednesday. April's new home sales figures will follow from the government on Thursday.

Economists expect existing home sales to have risen to a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 5-million units in April from 4.92-million in March. New home sales likely rose to 425 000 from 417 000 over the same period.

Home improvement retailers Home Depot and Lowe's will also report earnings this week, offering additional insight into housing-related demand. Analysts surveyed by Reuters expect Home Depot to report an 18% increase in earnings per share (EPS) and a 5% rise in revenue on Tuesday. Lowe's is forecast to report 15% growth in EPS and a 2.0% rise in revenue on Wednesday.

America's data week will close with April's durable goods orders report on Friday. Consensus is for a 1.1% monthly increase, 0.4% excluding transportation.

Europe
Euro zone data released last week was terrible, adding to speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will lower rates or otherwise act to stimulate the continent's moribund economy during the second quarter. More disappointing data is expected this week.

On Thursday, flash purchasing managers' index (PMI) readings for Germany, France and the euro zone are expected to show that the continent's two largest economies and 17-member common currency zone will continue to lose ground as 2013 rolls on.

Germany's services PMI is expected to edge up to the 50.0-mark separating expansion from contraction from 49.6 in April. Europe's largest economy's manufacturing PMI is also expected to rise, from 48.1 to 48.5.

France's services' PMI is forecast to remain largely unchanged at 44.5, an abysmal reading.The manufacturing PMI for Europe's number two economy is expected to fall slightly, from 44.4 in April to an even worse 44.0 in May.

The euro zone's flash manufacturing PMI is predicted to rise slightly, to 47. The region's services PMI is also expected to climb, to 47.2. The region's composite PMI – below the 50-mark for more than a year – will undoubtedly remain so in May. Economists expect the index to rise to 47.2 from 46.7 in April.

Beyond these data points, markets will be paying close attention to a speech by the ECB's Mario Draghi in London on Thursday. The last time Draghi spoke in London, in July, he pledged to do "whatever it takes" to protect the euro zone from collapse.

Asia
All eyes will turn to the Bank of Japan's governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, at the conclusion of the bank's policy meeting on Wednesday. Since assuming office in March, Kuroda and his colleagues have pursued aggressive policies aimed at winning the country's decades-long battle with deflation and igniting growth in the world's third largest economy.

The question on everyone's mind is whether or not he will announce further policy easing this week. Most economists expect the bank to leave its benchmark rate on hold at a record low 0.1% but, despite a recent increase in bond yields, to step-up its bond purchases.

Elsewhere in the region, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will release the minutes of its most recent meeting on Tuesday. Policymakers surprised many economists earlier this month by cutting the bank's overnight cash rate target by 25-basis points to 2.75%, a record low. This month's rate cut was the seventh in the past 19-months.

Australia's current account has been in deficit since 1975. As a result, policymakers at the RBA have historically kept rates at higher levels than other developed economies in order to attract overseas capital.

Money markets expect officials to keep rates on hold at their next meeting, but cut rates at least once more in the third quarter. According to an analysis of rate futures by Bloomberg, contracts show a 68% chance that officials will keep rates on hold in June, but indicate that the benchmark rate will fall to 2.5% or lower by September.

Africa
Wednesday's release of consumer inflation data is the big item on South Africa's economic calendar this week. Consensus is that the consumer price index (CPI) in Africa's largest economy eased to 0.2% month on month growth in April from 1.2% in March.

On an annual basis, inflation probably slowed to 5.7% last month from 5.9% in March. However, current weakness in the rand – driven principally by fears over labour unrest in the mining sector – will add to price pressures moving forward.

Policymakers at Nigeria's central bank will announce their rates decision on Tuesday. Their colleagues in Ghana will follow with their latest monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

Despite statistics released last week by Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics showing that real GDP growth slowed in the first quarter of 2013 relative to the previous quarter and that consumer inflation increased in April, most economists expect Nigeria's monetary policy committee to leave the bank's 12.0% benchmark interest rate unchanged.

Inflation will be forefront in the mind of Ghana's central bankers as well. Ghana's CPI inflation has increased sharply since February, driven primarily by an upsurge in fuel prices and depreciation in the local currency. Despite rising price pressures, most analysts believe that officials will not change the country's 15.0% benchmark rate this month.

Elsewhere on the continent this week, Morocco will release April's CPI figures. Ghana is expected to release producer price inflation readings. Nigeria will report overseas remittances, private sector credit growth and money supply data.

Matt Quigley writes the Mail & Guardian's weekly economic preview. You can follow him on Twitter at @mattquigley.