/ 11 October 2013

Amplats shares weather storm

Amplats Shares Weather Storm

Two weeks into the strike at Anglo American Platinum (Amplats), the share price of the embattled mining giant has remained relatively unscathed and still has a distance to fall before it reaches the low of R273.18 it recorded in July.

As members of the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union (Amcu), the dominant union at Amplats, wind up 14 days of a work stoppage at one of Amplats's major operations, the share price has been only moderately affected.

By Wednesday, Amplats shares had dropped by 1.1% over the past week.

At R402.96 a share on Wednesday, the price had dropped by 3.3% over the past month but, compared with the lows seen in June and July, remained relatively stable.

About 80% of the workforce at Amplats's operations in North West province downed tools on Friday September 27 and the company says it is losing 3 100 ounces of platinum a day as a result.

Unlike most other strikes this season, Amcu's is not wage-related. It is a show of solidarity with workers who have found themselves jobless because of Amplats's restructuring plans.

In January, the world's largest platinum producer announced its intention to cut 14 000 jobs in a bid to shed nonperforming operations as profits waned.

However, in response to fierce opposition from unions and the government, it reduced the number to 4 800, with 1 500 of those being paid off, meaning less than a quarter of the employees it originally announced would be retrenched.

But the concessions have not satisfied Amcu, which has demanded that Amplats sack contract workers instead of the comparatively more expensive full-time workers who have been given the boot.

Its president, Joseph Mthunjwa, this week threatened to mobilise a sector-wide strike if its demands are not met.

Despite the ongoing unrest, Amplats's share price has weathered the storm.

Nic Norman-Smith, chief investment officer at Lentus Asset Management, said that the share price has already taken into account the negativity created by the strike.

"There's so much bad news and negativity priced into the market already," he said.

"If they do get a turnaround and get any positive news, the share price will probably rally. We think it's a very attractive price."

Despite smaller margins and rampant labour tensions, platinum giants such as Amplats and Impala Platinum are, from a price-to-book perspective, "trading at valuations we haven't seen in a while", Norman-Smith said.

Nevertheless, the government's intervention over the planned job cuts skewed investors' expectations about Amplats's eventual recovery.

"It's disappointing the government has interfered," Norman-Smith said. "The normal market process would be for mines to shut down if they aren't making money.

"If a Shoprite outlet was losing money, would the government force them not to shut it down? This worsens investors' perceptions."