Sudan People’s Liberation Army soldiers and displaced citizens gather outside the UN Mission. South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir fired SPLA chief Paul Malong who fled and may be gathering his forces.
NEWS ANALYSIS
On Tuesday evening, President Salva Kiir unceremoniously dismissed army chief Paul Malong, plunging South Sudan into yet more political instability. Malong, once considered the power behind Kiir’s throne, is now fighting for his political life. South Sudan nervously awaits the outcome.
Ever since the country descended into brutal civil war in 2013, Malong has been a major powerbroker, and has been implicated in some of the conflict’s worst atrocities. He allegedly masterminded the deadly violence in the capital Juba in July last year, which forced rebel leader Riek Machar into exile and destroyed the fragile peace deal that had been agreed to the year before.
The announcement of Malong’s sacking came out of the blue. Tensions between Kiir and Malong had been rising all year but Malong’s influence in the army — not to mention the powerful private militias he controls — meant the risks of firing him always outweighed the risks of keeping him inside the tent.
For Kiir, that calculation has now changed, with several related issues coming to a head. Remember Miamingi, the co-founder of the South Sudan Human Rights Observatory, said: “The first is that, for the past two weeks, Kiir could not meet military commanders. He was informed that if he stepped into military barracks then he wouldn’t come out alive. He could not move within the city because of Malong.”
Malong, in other words, was getting too big for his military-issue boots and Kiir feared a coup.
Kiir and Malong also disagreed about the planned deployment of a new United Nations peacekeeping force, intended to secure Juba. Kiir views the force as vital to his long-term efforts to keep power, but Malong saw only a threat to his own influence.
Kiir’s decision to fire Malong is a hig-risk power play. Malong remains popular in his home state of Aweil, where he controls a large militia force known as the Mathiang Anyoor (or brown caterpillar in Dinka). It is also unclear how the army will respond to his sacking. Attempts by Kiir to keep Malong in Juba failed, and Malong is currently in a convoy heading home, where he may rally his loyalists against the government.
“It’s a gamble. If he fails in this gamble, the cost will be his presidency,” said Miamingi.
If he succeeds, Kiir might just win back the support of the international community and consolidate his grip on the presidency.
Malong was a major driver of ethnically motivated violence against Sudan’s Nuer population and by firing him Kiir can distance himself from the very worst atrocities — and, perhaps, regain support from leading Nuer politicians.
Nelson Alusala, an analyst at the Institute for Security Studies, argues that, having successfully implemented the decision to fire Malong, Kiir will probably reap the benefits. “I think Kiir is safer with Malong out of the military command, even if Malong has his own clique of militias. Even if Malong does take up arms, his militia will be just one of many others,” he said.
There are also serious questions about Malong’s health. In December last year, he went to Nairobi for medical treatment, supposedly to treat an increase in blood sugar levels, but local media outlets reported that his condition was much more serious.
Nevertheless, Malong can’t be written off, and what he does next is likely to define South Sudan’s immediate future. If he goes quietly into the night, then Kiir may be able to give himself a clear path to victory in the national elections that are supposed to be held next year. If Malong takes the fight to the government, then South Sudan will be looking at a further collapse of central authority.
Although another Kiir presidency is hardly appealing, the complete collapse of his government is an even scarier prospect. “At the South Sudan Human Rights Observatory, we have seen for ourselves the level of atrocities and intercommunal killings, the hatred that is going on,” said Miamingi.
“So if the centre collapses suddenly, all those will turn into genocide spots, all over the country, one community will be at the throat of each other.”
The rise and fall of ‘King Paul’ Malong
South Sudan’s conflict is often seen through the prism of the rivalry between rebel leader Riek Machar and President Salva Kiir. But if we are to reduce a civil war to personality politics, then Paul Malong deserves a seat at the table too.
He forged his reputation as governor of Northern Bahr el Ghazal province, on the border with Sudan, before taking over as boss of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) in 2014.
The civil war was still in its early stages, but Malong quickly put his stamp on things: he has been implicated by the United Nations in inciting ethnic violence and emphasising the divisions between the country’s two largest tribes, the Dinka (to which he and Kiir belong) and the Nuer.
In Juba, Malong proved to be a divisive figure. “To his numerous supporters, Paul Malong, the chief of staff of the SPLA, is known as King Paul. He is lionised for his strategic military brain, and his ferocious determination to conquer back all the territory in the hands of Riek Machar’s rebels,” wrote James Copnall, author of several books on South Sudan.
“Malong’s detractors — and there are many — are mainly silent, at least in public. The man has a reputation for ruthlessness.”
For Kiir, Malong was a useful ally, helping him to maintain control of the army and keep the rebels at bay. But he was also a threat, and Kiir has long feared that Malong’s ambition and ruthlessness would eventually come at his own expense.
It didn’t help that Malong created a network of private, well-armed and largely unaccountable militias, which answer only to him.
With Malong’s sudden dismissal this week, Kiir has avoided being upstaged by his army boss for now, at least. But Malong’s political savvy, coupled with his ruthless streak, means that there might be life in the old general yet.