Zuma vote: How many ANC MPs broke ranks?

As few as 31 or as many as 40 “rebel” African National Congress MPs may have voted for the motion of no confidence in President Jacob Zuma during Tuesday’s secret ballot in Parliament, depending on a range of possible scenarios that could have played out during the vote.

Several influences have been considered to build possible scenarios involving plausible figures for the total number of ANC MPs that voted in favour of the vote of no confidence.

These scenarios, albeit based on real factors that we understand to have been in play during the proceedings in Parliament, are merely educated guesses and should not be viewed as factual pronouncements on the number of ANC MPs who chose to side with the opposition.

Scenario 1: 31 ANC votes against Zuma
There are officially 151 opposition MPs in Parliament.

News24 understands that two members of the Democratic Alliance, one member of the United Democratic Movement and another member of one of the opposition parties were absent for the vote, which leaves us with 147 opposition MPs.

Further to this, we have learnt that the Pan Africanist Congress’ one MP openly stated that he would abstain from the vote.

If the remaining 146 opposition MPs had therefore all voted in favour of the motion of no confidence, 31 ANC MPs would have needed to break ranks with the ruling party in order to reach the total of 177 “yes” votes in favour of the motion.

But there was a total of nine abstained votes, meaning that apart from the PAC MP mentioned above, another eight MPs abstained from the vote.

If, in the highly unlikely scenario that all eight of the remaining abstainees were among the ranks of opposition parties, only 139 votes in favour of the motion could have come from opposition MPs.

In this unlikely scenario, 38 ANC MPs would have needed to vote against Zuma.

Scenario 2: 40 ANC votes against Zuma
In this scenario we factored in the fact that MPs from the National Freedom Party (NFP) and the African Independent Congress (AIC), two minor opposition parties, may not have voted in favour of the motion alongside the larger opposition parties.

The AIC is in an alliance with the ANC in the Ekurhuleni metro in Gauteng while Zuma in 2014 extended somewhat of an olive branch to the NFP by appointing the party’s leader, Zanele kaMagwaza-Msibi, to his Cabinet as the deputy minister of science and technology.

Both factors could possibly have influenced the NFP and the AIC’s decisions for Tuesday’s vote.

The NFP has six MPs and the AIC has three.

If we subtract these nine MPs from the total number of 151 opposition MPs who could possibly have voted for the motion of no confidence, along with the four absent opposition MPs and the PAC MP who indicated he would abstain from the vote, as mentioned in scenario 1, we would be left with a maximum of 137 opposition MPs who could have voted in favour of showing Zuma the door.

This means that 40 ANC MPs would have needed to side with the opposition in order to reach the total of 177 “yes” votes.

Scenario 3: 39 ANC votes against Zuma
This scenario involves only a slight tweak of scenario 2.

If the unknown absent opposition MP had been a member of either the NFP or the AIC, and if both parties’ MPs indeed chose to back Zuma, there would only have been eight MPs between the NFP and AIC.

This, along with the absent MPs from the DA and the UDM, as well as the PAC’s abstainee, would leave a total of 138 opposition MPs to vote for the motion.

In this scenario 39 ANC MPs would have needed to side with the opposition. – News24

Paul Herman
Paul Herman works from London. London based Songwriter/Producer. Paul has written songs for Artists like Dido, Emeli Sande, Corinne Bailey Rae, Eminem, Izzy Bizu, Raleigh Ritchie... Paul Herman has over 260 followers on Twitter.
Advertisting

De Klerk now admits apartheid was a crime against humanity

Apartheid’s last president walks back comments that definition was a Soviet plot

February 11 1990: Mandela’s media conquest

Nelson Mandela’s release from prison was also South Africa’s first ‘media event’. And, despite the NP’s, and the SABC’s, attempt to control the narrative, the force of Madiba’s personality meant that he emerged as a celebrity

Eastern Cape MEC orders graft investigation after two workers killed...

The killing of two council workers at the Amathole district municipality appears to be linked to tender fraud and corruption

Strike-off case pulls in judge

Judge Mushtak Parker is implicated in an application to strike off his former partners. He is also involved in the fight between the Western Cape high court’s judge president and his deputy
Advertising

Press Releases

Response to the report of the independent assessors

VUT welcomes the publishing of the report of the independent assessors to investigate concerns of poor governance, leadership, management, corruption and fraud at the university.

NWU student receives international award

Carol-Mari Schulz received the Bachelor of Health Sciences in Occupational Hygiene Top Achiever Award.

Academic programme resumes at all campuses

Lectures, practicals, seminars and tutorials will all resume today as per specific academic timetables.

Strategic social investments are a catalyst for social progress

Barloworld Mbewu enables beneficiaries to move away from dependence on grant funding

We all have a part to play to make South Africa work

Powering societal progress demands partnerships between all stakeholders

So you want to be a social entrepreneur?

Do the research first; it will save money and time later

Social entrepreneurship means business

Enterprises with a cause at their core might be exactly what our economy desperately needs

Looking inwards

Businesses are finding tangible ways to give back – but only because consumers demand it