ANC research shows 56% support for governing party in Gauteng
(Photo Archive)
The battle of the polls is heating up as the ANCs own research shows that it will hold onto the Gauteng province, with 56% of the vote.
In a move to influence sentiment a week before the country votes, the two largest political parties leaked their internal polling, which paints massively divergent pictures of the state of play in the country’s economic heartland. The Institute of Race Relations also released its latest survey data, which paints a dismal picture of the ANC’s support in Gauteng, placing its support at 39%, with a voter turnout of 70.4%.
According to the ANC’s own polling conducted between March and April the party’s researchers predict that it will hold onto Gauteng, with the latest poll tracking its support higher then two months ago, when it stood at 50%.
The Mail & Guardian understands that the research places support for the Democratic Alliance (DA) at a low 17% and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at 11%. This was among registered voters and excluded respondents who said they would not vote.
Among all voters — both registered and unregistered — the ANC’s support slid to 47%, the DA to 14% and the EFF to 10%. Voter “intent” stood at 67%, with both the ANC and the DA appearing to be able to be in a position to ensure that their supporters turned out to vote on May 8. The EFF battled in this regard, with the poll showing that it was may only be able to draw out 69% of its supporters.
The research also shows that the ANC’s support had increased since late last year, when it stood at 54%. A sample of 1826 voters were visited by researchers who conducted face-to-face interviews with them.
The margin of error was 2.3%.
The ANC research tracked issues as well as voter sentiment. It is understood that load shedding, corruption allegations as well as internal strife in the ANC had dented sentiment toward the party.
ANC Gauteng researchers indicated that Gauteng residents disliked coalitions, but the survey also showed a fluid electorate in the province, implying that it was still anyone’s game to win.
In response to questions in the survey, 44% of those polled agreed that the ANC was the “party for them”, 39% felt the ANC was “soft on corruption, 42% felt that the DA was “racist” and 27% felt the EFF was the most “divisive” party.
The ANC research comes amid a report by News24 that the DA’s internal research showed a massive decline in support for the ANC in Gauteng and a surge in support for the official opposition.
The IRR places the DA’s support nationally at 21.3%, down by 0.5 percentage points from its February poll and at 24% on a 71.9% turnout.
The IRR polled the EFF at 14.9% nationally, up 2.7 percentage points from February, and 14% on a 71.9% turnout scenario.
It places the DA’s support in Gauteng at 31.9%, down 0.5 percentage points from February, and at 39% with a 70.4% turnout scenario.
The IRR polled the EFF at 13% in Gauteng, down 5.2 percentage points from February, and 12% with a 70.4% turnout scenario. The poll uses a sample of 2 375 registered voters, with researchers out in the field from April 18 to April 25.
The IRR is conducting its final polling up until May 5, with results available on Monday next week.
News24 reports that the DA’s internal poll shows the opposition party has moved to within six percentage points of the ANC in Gauteng. The ANC is down from 48% to 44% in its latest poll and the DA is up from 38% to 34%.
The final flurry of polls both party and independent comes as South Africa enters the last stretch toward the key May 8 polls, promising to be the toughest contest for the governing party since 1994, particularly in Gauteng.