While odds are stacked against the ANC in making an impact in the big metros of Johannesburg and Cape Town, a post-election ANC-DA coalition could be in the offing, according to experts.
As the two leading members of the GNU at national government prepare to face off in the local government polls, independent election analyst Michael Atkins, this week said the significance of the polls would lie in the conduct of parties during coalition negotiations.
“Irrespective of any possible legislation, we need to build up a culture of respect across divides, where the needs of voters are prioritised over short-term interests,” said Atkins.
Atkins said public opinion polls showed a clear possibility of the ANC going below 30% in Johannesburg.
“A key implication would be the possibility of an overhang, where the ANC retains more wards than the total PR (proportional representation) seat allocation.
“This gap could be as high as five seats, meaning the ANC without PR councillors,” he added.
Despite some decline in the Cape Town DA support, its provincial results in 2019 and 2024 were better than at national level - pointing to the party’s core local support remaining intact.
Predicting the likelihood of a hung council in Johannesburg, Professor Sethulego Matebesi of the University of Free State and head of the Department of Sociology, quoted the MarkData poll, which placed the DA at 35% and the ANC at 21.8%.
“Polls like this, struggle to model who will actually vote in low-turnout local elections.
“While the DA will do well in Johannesburg, it will keep its mayoralty of Cape Town.
“But an outright majority is uncertain in Cape Town.
“Political parties like the Patriotic Alliance will garner significant electoral support – something that will decrease the DA’s support.
“For this reason, a high turnout matters more than any campaign issue,” said Matebesi.
In Cape Town, turnout would decide whether the DA would keep its majority.
He said a post-election coalition environment would be “a real test for political parties and voters”.
“We have noted how black voters have openly associated themselves with parties like Freedom Front Plus.
“Going forward, it will be interesting to see what impact this shift will have on the outcome of the elections and the next episode of national and provincial elections,” said Matebesi.
With DA Johannesburg mayoral candidate Helen Zille having ruled out a possibility of an EFF and MK Party coalition, the ANC was set to be a perfect partner.
“In terms of projections, the DA is polled at about 35% and ActionSA at about 10% - even together falling short of a majority. We must remember that rough poll shares are not seats. Combinations with enough weight to govern are the DA plus the ANC, or the DA with several smaller parties. The first is more stable but politically costly for both. The second depends on repairing the Zille-Mashaba relationship. A broad ANC-led alliance of MK, EFF and ActionSA is arithmetically possible, but would be hard to hold together,” he maintained.
High crime levels in the Cape Flats and in traditional black townships of Langa, Khayelitsha, Gugulethu and Nyanga, have put the DA on the back foot in Cape Town – with the debate often driven by the party’s mooted plan to spend millions on building a nine-kilometre concrete barrier along the N2 highway between Baden-Powell Road and Bhunga Avenue.
Said Matebesi: “Firstly, 45.3% of the people in Cape Town blame the national government for gangsterism, against 25.3% - limiting the damage to the DA. Secondly, whether the wall is ‘racially divisive’, is a value judgement - and public opinion appears to split, depending on where people live. The acting police minister said such walls cannot replace policing. That is the strongest neutral point against treating it as the main crime strategy. The DA has been accused of prioritising affluent suburbs, while its supporters say black residents get better services where it governs.”
Strongly opposed to the erection of the Cape Town wall as means to fight crime, Dr Oscar van Heerden, research associate and senior research fellow at the University of Johannesburg’s Centre for African Diplomacy and Leadership, described the plan by Executive Mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis as “racially-motivated”.
“With the majority of citizens in Cape Town being racist, they will unfortunately support such an initiative.
“It is a dangerous precedent - creating prison-like territories in and around the city, least curbing crime,” said Van Heerden.
While the DA prided itself on clean governance, Van Heerden claimed the opposite.
“Helen Zille and the people of Johannesburg seem to have forgotten the little fact that the DA after 2016, ran a number of metros and yet could not turn those cities around. Regarding spending more money on services in affluent suburbs, compared to poor black townships, our courts have agreed on this reality. The DA has been exposed for inadvertently maintaining the apartheid spatial morphology, having done very little to ensure integration in housing and socio-economically,” he said.
Announcing the DA key priorities for the financially-ailing Johannesburg, Zille has listed the fixing of finances, putting honest and capable people in charge; declaring war on corruption, making the municipality work for residents and restoring law and order.
Speaking at the DA’s last rally in line with the theme “Now or Never: Don’t Joburg’s Last Chance”, Zille said the DA had a track record in governing.
“Twenty years ago, the blue team won the metro from the ANC and turned it into the world’s best city. Three years later we did the same in a province. We know the difference between making speeches and making government work. In Cape Town, old water and sewer pipes are being replaced at five times the rate of Joburg. When Eskom cuts the power, Cape Town has systems to keep the lights on. There are more working streetlights in Khayelitsha than in Sandton. Right here in Gauteng, DA-run Midvaal has achieved 12 consecutive clean audits. That is what happens when public money is used for the public good. But the biggest test of all is jobs.
“Since 2016, Cape Town has added more jobs than all the other seven other metros combined. In fact, Cape Town has created 120 000 more jobs than Joburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, eThekwini, Nelson Mandela Bay, Buffalo City and Mangaung put together. That is the best proof that the DA is the party that offers hope and opportunity to all, especially the poor,” said Zille.
In its manifesto, the ANC has pledged to turn around municipal service delivery, with key targets and first 100 days’ plan being to Invest at least 8% of municipal asset values into maintenance and renewal, having 50% or more municipalities achieve clean or unqualified audits and allocating procurement or employment shares for women (40%), youth (20%) and people with disabilities (3%).
With Ramaphosa having remained the face of the party during campaigning, the ANC has pinned its hopes in building on its 2021 support, as it challenges the DA in the Cape Town metro, which the ANC last governed in 2006.
Ramaphosa has been taking aim at the DA’s governance record, claiming it failed to address the needs of poorer communities.
He has described Cape Town as “a tale of two cities”, saying quality services were concentrated in wealthy areas, while townships faced severe water, housing, and sanitation challenges.
In highlighting a deep socio-economic divide in Cape Town, Ramaphosa said while affluent areas enjoyed high-tier infrastructure, townships and informal settlements continued to struggle with basic needs.
He pledged to redouble government efforts to fight crime, saying rebuilding public trust in law enforcement required aggressively rooting out corruption and the criminal infiltration within the SA Police Service.