Powering the future: Overcoming South Africa’s energy trilemma

National Energy Month shines a spotlight on our local challenges, such as how to achieve net zero emissions

As National Energy Month draws to a close, South Africa finds itself at a crucial crossroads in its energy landscape. The country’s power supply crisis is nothing new; rolling blackouts or load-shedding have now become a routine part of daily life. Ongoing conflicts and instability on a global scale have seen the cost of fuel skyrocket, and, as a result, the cost of living. The “energy trilemma” — security, affordability and a move to carbon neutrality — has been exacerbated by local challenges and global uncertainties. Amid the darkness, however, there is a glimmer of light as innovative solutions and a renewed commitment to sustainable energy sources begin to take hold.

As the country and its citizens battle an array of energy-related challenges and the far-reaching impact of increasingly frequent, lengthy blackouts and their devastating consequences for industries and small businesses, National Energy Month aims to shed light on the pressing issues surrounding South Africa’s energy sector. Observed in May each year, it provides a platform for stakeholders, industry experts and policymakers to engage in meaningful discussions and deliberations in pursuit of viable solutions. 

Addressing the National Council of Provinces earlier this month, Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy Gwede Mantashe said that many of the current challenges are not unique to South Africa: “The global Covid-19 pandemic, worsened by factors linked to the Russia-Ukraine war, has affected all countries, thereby adding pressure on our mining and energy industries. Add to these the global imperative to transition towards low carbon emission economies, and more than ever before, global solidarity for development and peace is a necessity.” 

According to the United Nations, global development agendas are premised on peoples’ right to sustainable development and poverty eradication, but to realise this right and bring millions of people in South Africa and hundreds of millions of people on the continent out of poverty requires widespread access to secure, affordable and reliable energy. Africa remains the world’s least electrified region, with inadequate, unreliable and generally expensive supply, which severely constrains its development ambitions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that around 570 million Africans (more than a third of the population) live without electricity. 

Challenges not insurmountable

In his address Mantashe reiterated the government’s commitment towards achieving universal access to electricity, addressing energy poverty and ensuring energy security, but also acknowledged that significant obstacles would need to be overcome for this vision to be realised. “Two critical challenges face the ability of the state to fully meet its objectives on energy supply and security, with the first being the lack of grid capacity to connect new generated power; for example, 3 200 MW could not be allocated [recently] due to the unavailability of grid connection in the Northern and Western Cape provinces.” He added that his department was finalising an electrification master plan aimed at resolving national capacity challenges.

The second challenge, he said, was the ongoing contestation between development needs and environmental challenges: “As a result, foreign-funded lobbyists lock the department in protracted litigations that halt progress. While we sit with endless interdicts, South Africa, despite it being the most industrialised country on the continent, lags behind even the poorest of our neighbours.” 

The energy sector contributes close to 80% towards the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions, of which 50% are from electricity generation and liquid fuel production alone.  With these challenges in mind amid an ever-changing energy environment, Mantashe said the 2019 Integrated Resource Plan  (IRP) was under review, with a new draft policy set to be presented to Cabinet later this year. 

According to experts, one of the critical obstacles that must be addressed if South Africa is to achieve energy stability is its ageing infrastructure and increasingly strained power grid. State-owned power utility Eskom continues to grapple with financial woes, operational inefficiencies, widespread corruption and a backlog of maintenance issues. This has resulted in an increase in load-shedding, with households, businesses and essential services often facing blackouts of up to 12 hours a day. The country’s reliance on coal-fired power plants has also taken its toll on the environment, contributing to air pollution and exacerbating climate change concerns.

Just transition

For the transition from fossil fuels to renewable or cleaner energy sources to be just, the country and the continent cannot just transition. Africa and its economies are disproportionately impacted by climate change, with the most vulnerable populations hit the hardest. This is despite the fact that the continent has the smallest carbon footprint globally. According to the Statistical Review of the World by global oil and gas company BP, Africa contributed just 3.9% to global fossil fuel emissions in 2020, despite it being home to 17% of the world’s population. If South Africa and the countries in North Africa are excluded, this contribution drops to just 1% of all emissions. 

During the United Nations High-Level Dialogue on Energy in September 2021 — the first such dialogue in over 40 years — UN Secretary-General António Guterres acknowledged that while Africa’s climate ambitions and the drive towards net zero emissions must be relentless, its energy transition cannot be identical to the rest of the world, and pragmatic solutions are required. 

The shift must be accompanied by a strong commitment to job creation and skills development, which would include retraining and upskilling workers from the coal industry to minimise the impact on affected workers and communities. The sector must explore the potential of emerging technologies and actively address regulatory frameworks to foster investment and innovation. Partnerships, international investment and innovative funding mechanisms will also be key in overcoming the financial barriers and substantial costs of the transition. 

According to a report by UN Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), the global drive for a green transition and net zero emissions presents African countries with both risks and enormous opportunities: “Africa’s energy access and transition must be compelling and must be defined and owned by Africa, based on tapping the huge opportunities in terms of energy access, jobs and industrial development, using the continent’s abundant renewable energy resources.” 

Experts say while this is both a developmental goal and a commitment to climate action, it is also a business opportunity that could positively impact the continent’s employment rates and economic development — if it is done right. According to the UNECA report, if adequately supported, “Africa can harness its abundant energy resources to transform its economies and become a global leader in inclusive green growth”. 

Gas to fuel Africa’s Green Renaissance 

Conversations about green energy often centre on photovoltaic or solar solutions, wind energy and hydropower. The role of natural gas in achieving sustainability and a low-carbon future must, however, not be overlooked. Investing in gas is vital as a transition fuel, to facilitate the phasing out of more polluting fossil fuels. “While it does contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, increasing its use in power generation enables African countries to phase out more polluting fuels such as coal, diesel, heavy fuel oil (HFO) and traditional biomass, while bringing on board more renewables,” according to the UNECA report.

Natural gas power plants can provide system flexibility by being able to respond rapidly to changes in demand at very short time intervals, and it may even be possible to switch from coal and HFO to natural gas using existing infrastructure to deliver more climate-friendly energy. This is especially important in light of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which has given rise to uncertainty in Europe’s already skyrocketing gas market. “There is an opportunity for Africa’s gas market to develop to fill this gap and serve domestic and international markets,” the report states.   

Natural gas can also address another of the continent’s challenges: “Over 80% of Africans lack access to clean cooking. This impacts mainly women and girls and results in about 500 000 unnecessary premature deaths each year related to indoor pollution from dirty cooking solutions. Natural gas promotes a win-win for energy access, clean cooking, better jobs and climate ambition.” 

Both Africa and South Africa stand at a pivotal moment in their energy journey. National Energy Month serves as a timely reminder that the energy challenges faced by the country and the world are not insurmountable. By embracing renewable energy, enhancing energy efficiency and fostering collaboration, South Africa can harness its abundant natural resources, tap into its entrepreneurial spirit and step into a brighter and more sustainable future. — Jamaine Krige

Skills for a just energy transition

South Africa’s energy transition is critical but complex, and as the country embarks on the journey towards a more sustainable and renewable energy future, the need for a skilled workforce becomes paramount. Globally, the quest for energy security, availability and affordability has presented unique challenges and opportunities that can significantly impact employment and economic growth. 

As South Africa embarks on ambitious action to safeguard its failing electricity grid and reduce its carbon footprint, it becomes increasingly important to prioritise a just and inclusive approach that leaves no one behind. By focusing on the necessary skills for a sustainable future, the country has the potential to create pathways towards inclusive growth, equitable job opportunities and a cleaner environment. 

But this transition will require more than a skilled, future-ready workforce; it will demand ongoing measures to create new employment pathways and ensure a fair distribution of benefits to address existing social inequalities without deepening the societal divide. Job displacement is inevitable, and workers affected by the closure of coal mines or fossil fuel-based industries will need comprehensive support mechanisms. 

Fortunately, studies show that renewable energy projects create more employment opportunities per unit of electricity generated compared to fossil fuel-based projects. Investments in renewable energy infrastructure, manufacturing, and research and development can spur job creation across various skill levels, benefiting local communities. Providing retraining programs, income support, and access to healthcare can ease the transition and help individuals acquire new skills for employment in the renewable energy sector.

A road map for the future

At the start of 2023, the South African National Energy Association (SANEA), in partnership with Wits University’s Centre for Researching Education and Labour (REAL) and the Wits Business School’s African Energy Leadership Centre (AELC), launched the South African Energy Skills Roadmap to ensure that there is the human capacity needed to deliver technical energy solutions, both now and in the future. 

They found that there appears to be an adequate supply of traditional energy courses, but they often lack focus on areas of specialisation, like renewables or clean energy. This is in contrast to industry developments, where the provision of electricity is largely skewed towards renewables, with a focus on solar, but not so much on grid integration and energy efficiencies. 

Their research also reveals that the public service sector has remained largely focused on traditional energy jobs, with the private sector proving more responsive to renewables and alternate technologies. According to SANEA Chairperson Kiren Maharaj, local and global uncertainties in the energy sector and a dynamic, fast-changing energy landscape pose specific challenges when it comes to planning: “A responsive skills road map is needed, and this means that flexibility and contingencies need to be built in, as well as continual tracking of the environment as uncertainties unfold.” 

The demand for future skills is expected to be shaped by climate change and decarbonisation, thus concentrating skills demand in electrical maintenance, energy efficiency, energy planning, ongoing monitoring and solution-finding skills. Leadership development will be key if South Africa is to see this vision realised. 

Going forward, technical competencies for maintenance will still be in demand, with a need for accredited electricians, diesel mechanics, welders, boilermakers, as well as electricity distribution skills such as grid maintenance skills. There will also be an increased need for “enabling” workers in fields such as the legal regulatory environment, pricing and finance, supply chains and procurement. 

Industry trends must drive educational response 

A series of workshops held with industry players identified critical trends expected to impact the industry between now and 2050, identifying technology drivers such as renewable energy, hydrogen and other clean molecules, energy storage and smart technologies. Global trends in robotics, automation, digitisation and Artificial Intelligence are also likely to impact the sector and must be taken into consideration when it comes to building an adequate skills profile for the future. Other developments like prosumerism and new business models, a push towards the greening of systems, sector coupling, new value chains, the acceleration of technology and social change are also expected to shape the skills needed. 

REAL Director Dr Presha Ramsarup says it is not enough to identify current and future skills needs — there must also be deliberation about what educational responses are needed to address these needs. “We are in this crisis, and the focus up to now has been on the technical solutions, with little attention given to the skills dimension and whether there is the capacity to deliver on these technical solutions,” she explains. “Skills are always tagged on at the end rather than coherently planned for as an integral part of industrial and technical planning.” 

South Africa’s Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) Colleges and universities were found to have fragmented, rather than coordinated, responses to deal with the energy transition. The energy sector of the future is also more likely to be a decentralised one, which will require more localised capability. “In view of this, the role of community and TVET colleges in areas where renewable technology is emerging will become important in terms of provision. Currently, it would appear that they are not being sufficiently responsive to such developments,” says Ramsarup. 

The acquisition of new skills, addressing challenges, and harnessing opportunities will be instrumental in achieving a successful transition. By investing in renewable energy technologies, energy storage, energy efficiency and the necessary policy framework, South Africa can not only reduce its carbon footprint but also foster employment and economic growth, creating a brighter and greener future for all. By equipping the workforce with the necessary skills, a sustainable talent pipeline can be created that fosters innovation and entrepreneurship, and brings about societal change.