Perhaps China’s motivation for mobilising BRICS countries behind its efforts to influence the outcomes of the Ukraine war is for financial gain.
Beijing is well aware that it cannot solve the problem on its own
After last year’s brilliant success of Chinese diplomacy in reconciling centuries-old ethnic and religious rivals Iran and Saudi Arabia, the world was expecting Beijing to take on another Gordian knot — Russia’s war against Ukraine.
But over time, hopes gave way to disappointment. The 6-Point Consensus initiative, allegedly developed jointly with Brazil, seemed too vague and unspecific. At times, it seemed more like an initiative for the sake of an initiative; China’s desire to meet the expectations that prevailed in many countries of the South. There was also criticism of the Chinese plan on both sides of the front.
But it seems that the situation is beginning to change dramatically. China is trying to take advantage of the current electoral uncertainty in the United States and get serious about ending the war in Ukraine, preventing even a hypothetical peacekeeper from taking the peacemaking laurels of the current or future White House administration.
It would seem that Beijing could have applied its peacekeeping energy to another conflict, particularly in Africa, where security problems are by no means scarce. But Beijing chose the war in Ukraine.
Beijing is well aware that it cannot solve the problem on its own. For example, Ukraine distrusts Beijing, which is widely believed to be covertly playing along with Russia in the war. On the other hand, Russia, which has many excuses for its attempts to redraw the borders of the former Soviet republics, is irritated by Beijing’s reminders of the principles of sovereignty.
But now the Celestial Empire has a reliable recipe — the Global South. Beijing simply needs to assemble a certain “majority coalition” (whether it is to be assembled with a stick or a carrot is a separate question) in order to dictate the terms of peace to both sides of the conflict and the whole world on its behalf.
It seems that the first act of the Chinese play entitled “resolving the war in Ukraine” is taking place right now on the platform of the 79th session of the UN General Assembly. On the sidelines of the event, Beijing needs only to gather ministers or high-ranking representatives from BRICS allies and loyal states of the Global South to form a core group that will support the now concrete, not vague, Chinese plan to freeze the war.
But the core group is still not the entire Global South, or even a majority coalition. Furthermore, according to the Chinese directors’ scenario, the play envisages the rapid expansion of this group to include other states in Africa, Latin America, and Asia or regional international organisations such as the African Union. The play will rely on a kind of pyramid effect, whereby individual BRICS member states will engage states that are oriented towards them in supporting the Chinese initiative.
China itself will do the most work, of course. The set of Beijing’s arguments can be very broad and will be applied individually to individual countries of the Global South. But everyone knows the key argument — money — or, to be more precise, economic dependence on China. This foolproof argument got its name back in 2017, when Brahma Chellaney promulgated his high-profile article China’s Debt-Trap Diplomacy.
But let’s get back to the play at hand. If China manages to gather enough support, at least at a level to justify claims that 110 countries have already backed the Brazilian-Chinese 6-Point Consensus initiative, the play will reach its climax. The stage is set for it — the October summit of the BRICS leaders in Kazan, Russia. It is there that Beijing expects to clearly propose its specific plan to force Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, but of course on behalf of the majority from the South.
For the successful implementation of this plan, it would be very desirable for China to enlist the support of at least one authoritative European player in addition to the Global South. However, it seems that in this regard, Beijing has already learned how to conduct separate negotiations with individual European leaders who feel uncertain about their positions within their countries, and take into account local business and the benefits of cooperation with China.
What does all this have to do with Africa or other regions of the Global South? It seems like just another good deal with China, right? Chinese money (investments, loans, technologies) in exchange for Beijing’s political support in resolving a war that is taking place, for example, tens of thousands of kilometres away from South Africa or Latin America.
But the real threat is the imperceptible replacement of the UN and the entire global architecture based on international law by Chinese arbitration, where Beijing will be guided solely by its pragmatic interests. Tomorrow, Chinese arbitration will disregard the principle of inviolability of borders in Africa, enshrined in a special resolution of the Organisation of African Unity of 1964, and only because it will serve the interests of Beijing’s next logistics mega-project. By indulging China’s political initiatives in Europe today, the Global South risks not only economic but also political Chinese hegemony at home tomorrow.