Analysts say the Economic Freedom Fighters’ (EFF) decision to launch its election manifesto at Moses Mabhida Stadium in Durban on 10 February is expected to bolster the party's national support base. (Photo by Darren Stewart/Gallo Images via Getty Images)
Analysts say the Economic Freedom Fighters’ (EFF) decision to launch its election manifesto at Moses Mabhida Stadium in Durban on 10 February is expected to bolster the party’s national support base but that its growth in the coveted province of KwaZulu-Natal will be marginal.
This comes as the ANC announced on Wednesday that it will be launching its election manifesto at the same venue on 24 February. This is the same month the Electoral Commission of South Africa is expected to host its final registration weekend.
The stadium can accommodate 56 000 people but its capacity can be increased to 85 000. The ANC used the venue for its election manifesto launch in 2019, filling it to capacity.
The so-called battle of the stadiums began in July when the EFF filled the 100 000-seater FNB Stadium in Johannesburg for its birthday celebration.
In previous years, both the EFF and ANC have bused in thousands of supporters and supplied them with food and free T-shirts in a bid to fill stadiums.
Speaking to the Mail & Guardian, political analyst Dr Ongama Mtimka said if the EFF manages to replicate its past success at packing stadiums, as seen at FNB Stadium, it holds the potential to attract significant support.
“Moses Mabhida is important for the campaign craft of the EFF nationally, in general. It’s part of the optics that help a party’s election campaign do significantly by attracting significant support,” he said.
He added that the party could also take advantage of the changing political environment, which has seen the growth of breakaway parties which have left the ANC and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) to form their own political homes.
“We must also keep in mind the changing political environment of the ANC. There is an electoral market of the former ANC president Jacob Zuma’s support base from the radical economic transformation group that is up for the taking. It is no longer a foregone conclusion that the political homeless will choose the IFP,” he said.
Mtimka, however, said although the party would see growth, it would be marginal because of the traditional political cultures of the province, which have in the past been resistant to the EFF’s leadership style.
Political parties have zeroed in on Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal as the ANC has been forecast in numerous polls to take a knock in both provinces.
Last week, EFF leader Julius Malema announced that he would be launching his party’s election strategy in KZN to showcase its growing power in the province.
Malema described this as a tactical move essential for the party to position itself as a daring and potent alternative political force in KwaZulu-Natal, a political stronghold of both the ANC and IFP.
He has consistently expressed his conviction that he will be the next president of South Africa. He exudes steadfast confidence in his party’s ability to establish the next governments, both at national and provincial level.
He added the EFF would be the party that would remove the ANC from power.
“When we spoke and said to you, ‘We are the government in waiting,’ they said we were mad, and they did not know what they were talking about. Some were even making jokes about it saying, ‘You are a government in waiting and you will wait forever,’” he said.
Malema criticised the Patriotic Alliance (PA) and ActionSA for failing to fill their venues at their manifesto launches.
“You saw prisoners trying to imitate the EFF. These ex-convicts, called the PA, tried to imitate the EFF. You saw [ActionSA founder Herman] Mashaba, a man who is a hairdresser who is masquerading as a politician.
“Yesterday, he went to the place where he was born. He said: ‘I am going to launch a manifesto on a playground where I was born.’ He could not fill a stretch tent,” he said.
The EFF’s provincial chairperson, Mongezi Twala, said the party’s goal of securing 1 million votes in the province in next year’s elections, had prompted the decision to launch the campaign there.
He added that the province was ready to host the manifesto, which would see it win more seats in the legislature.
The elections are expected to take place between May and August next year, with President Cyril Ramaphosa set to announce the date after consultations with the Electoral Commission of South Africa.
Leading up to the 2021 local government elections, the party’s manifesto focused on critical issues, including land expropriation without compensation, strengthening state and government capacity by abolishing the tender system and ensuring free education, healthcare, housing and sanitation.
Twala emphasised KZN as the second-largest voting region after Gauteng, highlighting that all political parties would concentrate their efforts in the province.
“We perceive growth opportunities in KZN and our goal is to significantly increase our votes, aiming for no less than a million votes.”
KwaZulu-Natal continues to be a battleground for power, with the EFF and IFP fighting for significant wards.
The EFF’s share of the vote in KwaZulu-Natal increased from 1.97% in 2014 to 9.96% in 2019. In the 2021 local elections, the party received 10.31%.
Mtimka added that the EFF “showing respect” for leaders in the province, such as the Zulu king, would also bode well for them. On Tuesday, the EFF leadership pledged its party’s support for King Misuzulu kaZwelithini.
But the secretary of the ANC in KZN Bheki Mtolo has said the EFF was of no significance in the province and the ANC was “not bothered about them”.
He said that, contrary to statements made about political polls, “the people in the province still believe that the ANC is the only party with the capacity to lead the government of the day over the next five years and beyond”.
Multiple surveys, including one conducted by the ANC, continue to suggest the potential is high for the ruling party’s electoral support to dip below 50% in 2024, which will pave the way for a national coalition government.
Political analyst Khanyi Magubane said that the elections are a crucial make-or-break time for the ANC, which could see the EFF secure a share in the government pie.
“Next year’s election will be viewed as the most important one since the dawn of democracy and the end of apartheid in 1994,” she said.
She said that voter apathy could harm the ANC and other political parties hoping to increase their numbers in the province and nationally.
It was important for the ANC to “work hard” in KwaZulu-Natal to appease voters who have “had enough” of service delivery failures.
Magubane added that the ANC would be faced with the challenge of convincing the youth to vote for them, which could be an opportunity for the EFF.
Political analyst Sysman Motloung said that the election would inspire “hope” and bring about new ideas to improve the country.
It would, however, be a difficult election for the ANC, he said, because, for the first time in seven years, “they don’t know if they are guaranteed to return to power both nationally and in the KwaZulu-Natal province”.
Anticipating a fragmented electoral outcome, seven political parties recently inked the Multi-Party Charter, signalling a collective willingness to form coalitions if no party secures an outright majority.
This move, Motloung said, was positive as it would test the maturity of South Africa’s democracy and give the country an opportunity to experience change and growth.