Governments’ planned and projected production of coal, oil and gas against global levels consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. (Delwyn Verasamy/M&G)
A decade after the Paris Agreement was adopted, governments, in aggregate, still plan to produce far more fossil fuels than would be consistent with limiting global warming to between 1.5°C and 2°C, new analysis has found.
Countries are now collectively planning even more fossil fuel production than two years ago, with projected 2030 production exceeding levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C by more than 120% — and 77% more than would be consistent with 2°C, according to the 2025 Production Gap report.
Produced by the Stockholm Environment Institute, Climate Analytics and the International Institute for Sustainable Development, the analysis assesses governments’ planned and projected production of coal, oil and gas against global levels consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C.
The report provides new analysis for 20 major fossil-fuel-producing countries that are responsible for about 80% of global fossil fuel production. They are Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and the United States. Most of these countries continue to plan fossil fuel production at levels inconsistent with their net zero climate ambitions.
The analysis found that governments’ fossil fuel production plans remain well above global levels implied by their stated climate mitigation (reducing climate change) policies and announced pledges as of September 2024, as modelled by the International Energy Agency.
Taken together, governments now plan even higher levels of coal production to 2035, and gas production to 2050, than they did in 2023, the report said. Planned oil production continues to increase to 2050.
“These plans undermine countries’ Paris Agreement commitments, and go against expectations that under current policies global demand for coal, oil, and gas will peak before 2030.”
The report found that the aggregate planned coal production for 2030 is 7% higher than estimated in the 2023 report analysis, while planned gas production is 5% higher. “To be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, global coal, oil, and gas supply and demand must decline rapidly and substantially between now and mid-century.
“However, the increases estimated under the government plans and projections pathways would lead to global production levels in 2030 that are 500%, 31%, and 92% higher for
coal, oil, and gas, respectively, than the median 1.5°C-consistent pathway, and 330%, 16%, and 33% higher than the median 2°C-consistent pathway.”
Collective failure
The continued “collective failure” of governments to curb fossil fuel production and lower global emissions means that future production will need to decline more steeply to compensate.
“Reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions in the second half of the century, as the Paris Agreement calls for, will require cutting fossil fuel production and use to the very lowest levels possible.”
Every year that countries fail to make progress in curbing fossil fuel production and use, it becomes harder for the world to achieve its climate goals, the report said. “In the first half of the 2020s, rather than peaking and falling rapidly, fossil fuel production has continued to grow.”
The delay in cutting fossil fuel production has two major consequences. First, total fossil fuel production during the 2020s will now be far higher than what is compatible with keeping global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C.
This means that even if the world manages to bring production down to safe levels by 2030, the total amount of coal, oil and gas extracted over the decade will still overshoot what the climate can handle.
Second, because so much new fossil fuel infrastructure has been built in this period, cutting production later will be much harder and more expensive. Even with urgent action starting today, fossil fuel production in 2030 is still expected to be above levels needed to stay on track for 1.5°C.
Despite this, governments have reaffirmed their commitment to the 1.5°C target. At COP28, they pledged to “keep 1.5°C within reach” and to set stronger national targets.
The International Court of Justice has also confirmed that 1.5°C is the Paris Agreement’s core temperature goal, requiring global emissions to reach net zero in the second half of the century. Achieving this will mean cutting fossil fuel production and use to the lowest possible levels.
While a few major fossil-fuel-producing countries have begun to align production plans with national and international climate goals, most still have not.
The report said that as governments submit their third round of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — or their national climate plans — under the Paris Agreement, they must commit to reversing the continued expansion of global fossil fuel production, explicitly integrate plans for reducing production within wider energy transition efforts, and redouble cooperative efforts to ensure a just transition globally.
Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) have achieved some successes but faced implementation challenges in the four countries where they launched —Indonesia, Senegal, South Africa and Vietnam, it said.
“These difficulties have prompted leading donor countries to consider course corrections and alternative approaches. Although new JETPs are unlikely in the near term, multiple countries are exploring similar models for cooperation, including energy transition ‘country platforms’.”
Analysis of South Africa
In terms of policy updates, the report noted that in October 2024, the government enacted the Upstream Petroleum Resources Development Act, creating a regulatory framework for the state and for black South Africans — who were historically excluded from natural resource development — to explore and produce fossil fuel resources.
“Following passage of this Act, the government officially launched the state-owned South African National Petroleum Company to manage the country’s oil and gas resources … South Africa enacted the Climate Change Act in June 2024, which requires sectoral emission targets to meet South Africa’s NDC.”
The Climate Change Act notes the decommissioning of coal power plants as an essential measure for achieving the sectoral target for the power sector.
“Nevertheless, a draft Integrated Resource Plan for the power sector incorporates the decision of Eskom to extend the lifetime of its oldest coal power plants up to 2030, citing energy security reasons. Plants that were due to shut down by 2027 are now expected to run until at least 2030.”
The government continues to lack national projections or targets for coal and oil production. In April 2024, the government published a draft Gas Utilisation Master Plan that outlines how South Africa will address reduced gas supply from Mozambique because of declining reserves in the Pande and Temane gas fields.
The plan proposes increasing domestic gas production from offshore fields and importing liquid natural gas to meet gas demand. Since 2020, the government has provided an average of R611 million annually to fossil fuel producers through tax reductions for oil and gas development and direct budgetary transfers to coal power and coal mine projects.
In 2022, the government spent a “notably higher amount” of R1.45 billion, largely on coal projects.
The government continues to implement its Just Energy Transition Implementation Plan and accompanying Accelerating Coal Transition Investment Plan. Although the US withdrew its support for South Africa’s JETP, R235 billion of the original R253 billion in international support remains from the other JETP partners, with R48 billion of this amount spent to date.