/ 8 August 2023

Trump could run for president from behind bars

Donald Trump
US President Donald Trump. (File photo by Seth Wenig-Pool/Getty Images)

On 3 August, former US President Donald Trump pleaded not guilty to charges of attempting to overturn the 2020 election results — his third criminal indictment of the year. Despite these legal challenges, he remains resolute in his pursuit of a White House comeback in 2024. 

The last indictment levied three criminal conspiracies against him, including charges of defrauding the US by employing dishonest tactics to hinder lawful federal government functions. Additionally, Trump faces accusations of corruptly obstructing and impeding the congressional proceedings on 6 January 2021 to certify the election results. 

The indictment also cites a conspiracy targeting the right to vote and the accurate tabulation of votes. Amid these mounting legal woes, Trump’s ambitions for a return to the presidency remain firmly in the spotlight, setting the stage for a contentious and closely watched political saga. 

With three criminal cases already ensnaring him, Trump braces for a potential fourth. In New York, he confronts 34 felony charges involving hush-money payments to a porn star. 

In Florida, 40 felony counts implicate him for withholding classified documents and obstructing retrieval efforts. 

Additionally, four counts in Washington relate to his alleged endeavours to overturn the 2020 election. 

Another storm is brewing for Trump in Georgia, where a county district attorney is investigating his purported efforts to undermine the election results in that state. The legal maze unfolds as the primaries loom, promising a protracted struggle that could shape the former president’s political future.

The latest indictment looms as Trump’s paramount challenge. Experts consider the 2020 election interference case the most serious of the three, labelling it as “probably the most significant legal case in US political history”. The indictment charges Trump with seeking to invalidate valid votes and undermine the election results, aiming to thwart Biden’s 2020 triumph. 

The stakes are unprecedented, and the outcome could reverberate through the annals of American jurisprudence and presidential history. Prosecutors highlighted Trump’s role in the lead-up to the US Capitol attack on 6 January 2021, as his supporters besieged the building to obstruct Biden’s election certification. The trial’s implications extend beyond Trump himself, because it confronts the core tenets of justice and governance. 

The world watches as this legal battle unfolds, with potential repercussions that reach far beyond the courtroom. The latest indictment draws extensively from the now-defunct US House select committee’s investigation into the Capitol riot, an investigation that has split American society along partisan and ideological divides. The committee’s conclusive report, released in December last year, established Trump’s rejection of the 2020 election results and his concerted efforts to overturn the outcome. 

Unfazed by the committee’s findings, Trump, seeking a third White House term in November, denounced the investigations as politically motivated. 

The charges against Trump represent a pivotal moment, reflecting the deep-rooted divisions in American society and the complexities of holding a former president accountable for his actions. The trial transcends mere legal proceedings, resonating with the fundamental questions surrounding the sanctity of elections and the future of democracy in the US. Ironically, the majority of Republican voters seem unaffected by the prospect of Trump’s entanglement in multiple grave criminal cases. The implications of this sentiment on the political landscape points towards the fast corrosion of political norms and standards of a society that is ready to accept a tainted politician as the head of state. 

All the opinion polls in the US suggest that, after each indictment in a new case, Trump’s popularity is further jacked up. Last week, in a joint poll by The New York Times and Siena College, Republican voters expressed strong support for Trump, with a 54% backing. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis trailed far behind with only 17% support. Other notable contenders, including Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, and Tim Scott, received negligible backing, each garnering no more than 3% support. The survey’s results reflect Trump’s continued sway within the Republican base and the challenge he poses to potential rivals as the party contemplates its future leadership. The American political theatre plummets into new depths of absurdity, entertaining the possibility of a highly controversial former president’s return to the White House in its decaying democracy. 

Curiously, even if incarcerated, Trump could still vie for the presidency, as US laws don’t prohibit a path from prison to the White House — rendering the impeachment process rather ineffective for Democrats. No provisions in the Constitution bar individuals under indictment, convicted, or imprisoned from seeking the presidential slot. Even amid the grip of a “speedy trial”, Trump could potentially orchestrate his presidential campaign from behind bars. 

The drama of the 2024 presidential race is going on full-throttle, but the larger farce of American politics is far from over. 

Dr Imran Khalid is a freelance columnist on international affairs based in Karachi, Pakistan. He qualified as a physician from Dow Medical University in 1991 and has a master’s degree in international relations from Karachi University.

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Mail & Guardian.