Talkin’ bout a revolution: The cases of Bangladesh, Kenya and Nigeria

In the early 1960s and 1970s, the generation of young people in the United States almost brought the country to the brink of revolution. Among them are people who cannot be ignored such as Stokely Carmichael,  who marched with Dr Martin Luther King Jr. He made popular the phrase “Black Power” while a student activist for civil rights as he rose up the ranks of the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee (SNCC) at a pivotal time in US history. 

In the South, the SNCC organised sit-ins at the counters of segregated restaurants, sponsored freedom ride on interstate buses to segregated states, registered black people to vote and supported country-wide protests against the Vietnam War by effectively breaking the draft with the slogan “Hell no, we won’t go.”  We can also argue that the SNCC inspired many other movements and organisations that either joined the civil rights movement or followed after, such as the women’s movement and the Vietnam Veterans Against the War. 

Carmicheal married the beautiful South African singer, Miriam Makeba, and moved to West Africa. He became known as Dr Kwame Ture and championed Pan-Africanism. In many of his discourses, Ture advocated for revolution, just like many of his contemporaries — arguing that the role of students in any revolution is simply to spark the revolution, while the peasants and masses carry it to the end. This observation makes sense in the historical context but falls flat on its face if we look at the struggles of today. Simply put, times have changed, and dynamics are no longer the same. 

Tracy Chapman, who gave us the song “Talkin’ Bout a Revolution in the early 1980s, says: “Don’t you know talkin’ about a revolution? Sounds like a whisper.” But nothing is a whisper given the advent of social media. Modern revolutions have all been entwined or associated with X, TikTok, Facebook and other platforms. Good examples include the Arab Spring and Brexit.

Bangladesh student protests 

The news of revolution coming out of Bangladesh, after weeks of student protests and with more than 300 people dead, according to Al Jazeera, should be a lesson in safe logic. The uncompromising student-led protests forced the prime minister to flee to India. It’s a victory for the protestors and came at a huge cost of human life. But, as Malcom X said, “Revolutions are bloody.”  The ousted prime minister, Sheikh Hasina Wazed, is a daughter of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the first president of Bangladesh and considered the father of the nation. He was assassinated in 1975 by the military junta that took power through a coup d’etat.  Sheikh Hasina was out of the country at the time. She was the only member of the family that survived. Sheikh Hasina returned to Bangladesh and was prime minister from 1996 to July 2001 and again from January 2009 to August 2024. 

It is unthinkable that the experienced and skillful politician failed to correctly read the mood in the country. Had she done so much earlier, she could have found ways to manage the situation. Like many of the ruling elite in other countries, Sheikh Hasina underestimated the voice of the downtrodden. They overlook the real issues people are faced with; they close their ears to the whisperings of those who mean well for the people. Instead, the upper class assumes that the masses are stupid. In such situations there is a tendency to try to pacify the angry mob by handpicking a few bourgeois fellows to speak for the aggrieved. This is a clear miscalculation, because the bourgeois class do not really have the interest of the masses at heart. Hence, they fall short to articulate the thoughts and feelings of the agitators of change. 

Another failed strategy by those in power in dealing with protestors is unleashing the police or even the army to crackdown on dissent. This has never worked anywhere, especially in our modern era. Thus, if politicians were good students of history, they would never consider such an option. The dilemma of strategically using law enforcement for crowd management and maintaining law and order, as opposed to cracking down on opposition or protestors with brutal force, is real. A smart leader navigates this thin line with skill and tact. 

Instead, Sheikh Hasina will be remembered for having the blood of young people on her hands. A testament of these young people’s victory is that an interim prime minister of their choice has been installed, a man who was critical of the previous regime. Muhammad Yunus is a Nobel peace laureate and a respected figure. Students refused to hand over power to the military, choosing a civilian interim government. This is a unique state of affairs and demonstrates that contrary to the belief that the role of students is to “spark” a revolution. Instead they not only sparked the revolution, but owned the revolution and saw it right up to the end of the road.  

Kenyan tax protests

Another case study of protestors and a possible revolution is the predicament of Kenya today. Reports from the Human Rights Commission in the country indicate that since the beginning of protests in June 2024, about 50 people have been killed. The government of Kenya, led by President William Ruto, introduced a finance bill that would raise taxes. Slowly, this bill became a topical issue at dinner tables in people’s homes, in workplaces, in schools and then the unforgiving streets of social media. It was evident that Ruto had one problem — the protestors did not have a top-down hierarchy to guide their operations or stage protests. It was spontaneous, unplanned and went all over the place. This made it difficult for the government to call for negotiations or meetings to resolve grievances. 

The students took centre stage with the influence of social media. Their demands were clear and uncompromising. Before long, the government had no option but to withdraw the controversial bill and give in to the demands of the masses on the streets of Nairobi. The president went a step further and fired all his cabinet ministers with the exception of his deputy, and one other strategic cabinet position. This was unprecedented, and to a larger extent a victory for the protestors of this generation. Unfortunately, this was not to be satisfactory for the protestors, who have gone back to the streets with a new set of demands — including that Ruto resign with immediate effect. 

But, unlike the protest against the finance bill, it remains questionable as to whether these resurfaced protestors on the streets of Nairobi can or will achieve their desirable results. The drive and the momentum of these protestors seems different from the initial group of young people who fought their government over the discredited 2024 finance bill. Nonetheless, only time will tell because, as in any revolution the struggle tends to take different forms as dynamics change. Kenya may as well teach us unprecedented lessons when all is said and done. 

Is Nigeria the next protest frontier?

The bug of protests by young people has spread to Nigeria. Deaths have been reported, with Amnesty International saying 22 people had died and the police giving a figure of seven from accidents.

After the police crackdown and President Bola Tinubu calling for a pause in demonstrations, the protests have for now diminished. But the government is worried about these protests against the soaring cost of living. To squash these protests, the following questions have to be answered: will the young people do to Nigeria what we have seen in Bangladesh and Kenya? Can the demands of the protestors be met by the Nigerian government without commotion? Are these protests in Nigeria spontaneous and unplanned? Do they have any form of hierarchy, with a top-down leadership? Is it the young people who are protesting or are there other competing interests?