South Africa is presented with opportunities and problems created by the Musk-Trump regime
The US is a preponderant power — it essentially dominates almost every aspect of international affairs.
It is also South Africa’s second-biggest trading partner and this is critical for funding the country’s fiscal deficits and its deteriorating debt-to-GDP ratio.
To understand present SA-US relations, note that after 1994, America and South Africa entered into several multi-faceted strategic partnerships, which spanned security, energy, health, military and other aspects. Foreign aid and development assistance from the US to South Africa is valued at about $500 million a year, more than half of South Africa’s total annual aid receipts.
Both the US and South Africa are important role players in Africa and in the age of austerity, the US needs partners.
Moreover, for its grand strategy to be effective, the US must be able to effectively shape its security and foreign policy and it needs key partnerships to do so.
South Africa, alongside Nigeria, has played a key role in shaping Africa’s institutional architecture, including New Partnership for Africa’s Development (Nepad), the African Union and the Pan-African Parliament.
It has also led regional cooperation efforts, particularly in transforming the Southern African Development Community.
The US has long relied on South Africa’s support for defence initiatives, given its leadership in the region. Over the years, South Africa has contributed significant funding, military resources and political support to missions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Mozambique and Sudan.
Cutting future funding to South Africa would have both immediate and long-term economic consequences for South Africa and regional political implications for the US.
A major point of contention remains South Africa’s non-alignment stance — a policy established by Nelson Mandela and upheld by successive administrations, though inconsistently applied.
This tension reflects the intersection of politics and economics. Not only is the US South Africa’s second-largest trading partner, it is its fourth-largest investor, with 600 US companies employing about 143 600 people. In a context of 32% unemployment, this is considerable.
Any deterioration in economic ties will affect South Africa’s economy.
Points of contention
Expropriation Act: President Trump criticised this Act by stating that the US would cut off all future funding to South Africa until a full investigation into the issue has been completed. Others in Trump’s administration, such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, cited the new Act as one of the many reasons he is snubbing the G20 being hosted in South Africa.
Brics+: Russia and China have strained relations with the US, as does Iran, one of the newest Brics members, and South Africa’s strengthened relations with these countries is perceived by the US as anti-Western.
Lady R: The US was dissatisfied with South Africa’s decision to allow the US-sanctioned Russian cargo ship Lady R to dock in the Simon’s Town naval base in December 2022.
China: Issues with China include establishing the private test flying academy in South Africa, which the US says recruits former American and North Atlantic Treaty Organisation pilots to train Chinese pilots.
Israel: South Africa took Israel to the International Court of Justice on the charge of genocide, which appeared to demonstrate to the US that South Africa sympathised with terror group Hamas.
A shift in US-SA relations
Before Trump’s presidency, tensions between the two countries were already growing, one of the key points of contention being South Africa’s position on Palestine and Israel.
Last year, there were threats to exclude South Africa from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), which accounts for a significant portion of export access to US markets. Former international relations minister Naledi Pandor responded to this pressure by stating, “We will not be bullied”, particularly regarding calls to take a side in the Russia-Ukraine war.
South Africa continues to maintain relationships with Washington’s geopolitical rivals, including Russia, Iran and China, while trying to preserve its economic ties with the US.
These tensions escalated last year when the US House of Representatives’ Committee on Foreign Affairs passed the US-South Africa Bilateral Relations Review Bill, which would require the government to undertake a comprehensive review of its relationship with South Africa, including re-evaluating the country’s participation in Agoa.
At the heart of this issue is Congress’s belief that South Africa’s foreign policy no longer aligns with its stated commitment to non-alignment. Instead, Pretoria is perceived as increasingly favouring China and Russia, a stance that US policymakers argue undermines American national security and foreign policy interests.
What all of this means
There is no denying that the US will continue to retaliate for perceived threats to US interests and security. One such measure is potentially withdrawing South Africa’s Agoa membership and the recent decision to boycott the G20 being hosted in South Africa this year. Notably, after this announcement, China extended its support to South Africa’s presidency of the G20, and the EU has also declared its support.
Shifting focus from South Africa could push the country toward stronger ties with US adversaries and other developed nations. Aware of this risk, the Biden administration was reluctant to enforce measures such as the Review Bill, fearing that alienating South Africa could drive it further into the Russia-China camp.
The US’s position can be interpreted in two ways. The US is making a clear statement that it is moving away from South Africa as a strategic partner and this decision may force South Africa to make a pronounced shift, potentially moving away from its non-alignment stance.
An act of defiance?
During his State of the Nation address, President Cyril Ramaphosa explicitly stated that “we will not be bullied”, reinforcing South Africa’s commitment to resisting external pressure.
This stance aligns with its positions on Agoa, the Russia-Ukraine war and engagement with US geopolitical rivals, emphasising South Africa’s sovereignty and strategic autonomy.
These tensions arise amid a shifting global landscape, where emerging and middle powers offer South Africa new opportunities to diversify economic and political partnerships.
This push for a multipolar world strengthens its role within the Brics bloc and the Global South while reducing reliance on Western ties.
Countries and blocs such as Japan, the European Union and Germany have increased engagement in Africa through initiatives such as the New Asian-African Strategic Partnership, the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation and the Tokyo International Conference on African Development, positioning South Africa to align with alternative key players.
Given the US’s stated commitment to respecting Africa’s autonomy, as reaffirmed in 2022 by Antony Blinken, the secretary of state in at the time, singling out South Africa for its diplomatic choices appears contradictory.
The US maintains strong ties with countries such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey, despite their engagements with Russia.
Thus, US-South Africa relations should be framed within mutual respect for sovereignty and the right of nations to shape their own foreign policies.
South Africa faces the delicate task of managing its relationship with the US, because strained ties will not serve its national interests. Skilful diplomacy will be essential in navigating these difficulties. While South Africa’s non-alignment stance is not new, leaders such as Mandela and Thabo Mbeki effectively balanced diplomatic engagement with strategic autonomy.
Ramaphosa must now invest in a similar approach. As South Africa assumes the G20 presidency, it has an opportunity to strengthen ties with key global players such as the EU, Canada, and Mexico — nations also facing economic pressures from the US. Domestically, the government of national unity must find greater alignment and adopt a united front to ensure a coherent and consistently applied foreign policy that serves national interests.
In its negotiations with the Trump administration, South Africa should aim to make strategic concessions that align with Trump’s domestic political priorities, demonstrating how cooperation could benefit his supporters. Ultimately diplomacy will be the determining factor in the future of US-South Africa relations.
Dr Mmabatho Mongae is a data analyst in the Governance Insights and Analytics Programme at Good Governance Africa.