Since the start of Israel’s war on Gaza at least 116 journalists have been killed, making this the deadliest war for journalists in history. Almost 20 000 children have been killed. (Photo by Fadi Alwhidi/Anadolu via Getty Images)
As in Chronicle of a Death Foretold by Gabriel Márquez there are signs telling us what is coming. As in the novel, these are being ignored. The signs are telling us that the world is moving closer to a wider war in the Middle East, a war that will result in more boots on the ground, more deaths and more suffering.
Since the start of Israel’s war on Gaza at least 116 journalists have been killed, making this the deadliest war for journalists in history. Almost 20 000 children have been killed. The number of UN and aid workers killed is the “the highest ever in a single crisis”. Israel has bombed embassies, killing diplomats and high-ranking officials from Syria, Iran and Lebanon.
Israel has killed people protected by diplomatic immunity without any consequence, such as the August killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, shortly after he attended the inauguration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. In July, Israel assassinated Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut with a “precision strike”, which killed seven civilians, along with an Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
Israel’s war crimes have been systematically enabled and legitimated by the Western powers. The contrast between how the West responded when Russia invaded Ukraine could hardly be starker. This double standard has been repeated here in South Africa as the Western-aligned commentators and media organisations that became frenzied after Russia invaded Ukraine have fallen silent.
According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, Israel has conducted over 17 000 attacks in five countries since the Hamas attack on the southern towns of Israel in October 2023. These include the occupied Palestinian territory, Iran, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen. In Lebanon, the Israel Defence Forces have killed over a thousand people.
It seems clear that Israel is endeavouring to expand its war against Gaza into a regional conflagration. Israel is trying to force a geopolitical shift in the Middle East that will push the US to become more directly involved in the conflict than just providing weapons, money and ideological and diplomatic cover. The build-up of US warships in the Red Sea and personnel in the Middle East increases the possibility of violent encounters with forces fighting against Israel.
The expanding war will continue to divide not only the Middle East but the world. The leeway and latitude given to Israel by the West continues to erode not only the “liberal democratic order” but also the idea that there is a rules-based international order.
It continues to undermine global institutions such as the UN and it continues to push the Global South to look for groupings and institutions outside of those led by the West as the standing of these is being deliberately enervated. The Global South watches as Israel’s impunity is allowed to continue; acts that no other county on the planet would be allowed to even contemplate are excused and rationalised.
Here in South Africa, that part of the largely white commentariat and media that refuses to condemn Israel in the same way that it condemned Russia after the invasion of Ukraine stands similarly exposed for its gross double standards. There is a deep rift between it and much of the rest of the country.
The US has failed to rein in Israel, despite its many egregious acts of systematic violence and crimes against humanity perpetrated against Palestinians, with American weapons. The US has stood by Israel, joining it in warning Iran and other countries against retaliating or considering retribution against Israeli strikes. This continues to give Israel the kind of carte blanche that no other country in the world enjoys.
This past year, we have watched on our screens in real time as the Israel Defence Forces committed genocide. The International Court of Justice has made provisional genocide findings against Tel Aviv and the International Criminal Court is seeking indictments against Israeli leaders for crimes against humanity.
Despite this, the US and its allies, including its proxies here at home, will maintain that they are completely behind Israel. This makes it unequivocally clear that Israel can do no wrong in the eyes of the West.
This past Friday, Hassan Nasrallah, the Lebanese Shia and Hezbollah leader, was killed in Beirut by an Israeli attack using bunker-busting bombs which are forbidden by the Geneva Convention from being used in densely populated areas. At least six large apartment buildings were destroyed in this attack, leaving many injured and homeless.
After the Israeli-orchestrated explosion of pagers and walkie-talkies in Lebanon, Nasrallah had anticipated his death repeatedly saying in a recent recorded speech, “If you will see me again …”
The killing of Nasrallah and the other Hezbollah leaders who died with him will not stop or break Hezbollah. Hezbollah was forged to fight Israeli occupation in Lebanon and in Palestine. As long as the world stands back and allows Israel to act with impunity the commitment to resist Israel will only grow across the region.
Despite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly praising himself for creating “the conditions to both return all our abductees and achieve the goals of the war”, he has scuppered attempts to end the war on Gaza, allowed more Israeli abductees to die in captivity and deliberately and consistently pushed for the expansion of the war.
Despite the world knowing all this, knowing what type of a politician Netanyahu is and seeing him push Israel and the world into a more widespread war, nothing is being done to stop the coming hostilities. Even though this script has been written and played out before, it is being allowed to happen again.
Diplomacy has worked to resolve many seemingly intractable conflicts, such as that in South Africa. This country’s negotiated settlement was not perfect and some of its shortcomings still reverberate. However, at some point, all sides accepted that the status quo could not hold. They had to accept that they would not get everything that they wanted. As the intellectual Neville Alexander argued the settlement remains vastly preferable to the alternative, which would have been a long war that neither side had the capacity to win outright.
When it comes to Israel, however, there does not seem to be the political will in Tel Aviv, or from its backers in the West, to reach a point of compromise.
Until this changes there is never going to be peace and security for Israel. Indeed, there is never going to be peace for the whole of the Middle East. The generational strife and hatred in the region is likely to continue unabated until the grown-ups can stand up.
However, this is not going to happen for as long as the US government — from the White House to Congress — continues to fan the flames by giving Netanyahu standing ovations and continually stating that Israel has the right to defend itself against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.
With the West unable or unwilling to do the hard work to tame Israel the rest of the world, including the Global South, needs to take the lead. South Africa, in its leadership of the G20, needs to rally like-minded leaders who support the use of negotiation and compromise to bring the war in Gaza to an end and prevent the expansion of the conflict.
Nontobeko Hlela is a research fellow with the Institute for Pan African Thought & Conversation in Johannesburg and a non-resident fellow on the Global South with the Quincy Institute in Washington.