The promise of $300 billion by 2035 is not only insufficient; it’s a betrayal of the principles of climate justice. (Guillem Sartorio/Getty Images)
The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) unveiled at COP29 promises $300 billion in annual climate finance by 2035. But this figure isn’t a lifeline — it’s a calculated deflection that risks locking Africa into more debt and delaying the shift to renewable energy. Instead of addressing the immediate and huge funding required for just transitions, this commitment reflects the Global North’s prioritising economic factors over the climate emergency.
Africa contributes less than 4% of global emissions but faces disproportionate climate impacts. Yet African nations are expected to shoulder their transitions to renewable energy with insufficient and conditional support.
Furthermore, the continent has an energy poverty crisis; more than 600 million people don’t have electricity.
Africa’s renewable energy transitions require rapid and substantial investments to phase out fossil fuels, build clean energy infrastructure and ensure equitable access to energy. Experts estimate that the Global South needs $1.3 trillion annually to meet these goals. The $300 billion by 2035 falls far short, equating to just 23% of the required funding. And the timeline pushes critical action into the future.
The failure to act now has cascading consequences. Without immediate financial resources, countries have to prioritise short-term energy security through coal, oil and gas projects, contradicting climate targets and undermining global efforts to cap warming at 1.5°C.
Reliance on fossil fuels not only locks African nations into high-emission energy systems but also deepens socioeconomic inequalities. Fossil fuel projects often benefit urban and industrial centres, leaving rural areas — home to the majority of Africa’s population — without access to modern energy services. Delayed just transitions reinforce cycles of poverty and limit Africa’s ability to mitigate and adapt to climate change.
At the core of COP29’s failure is its overreliance on debt-financed solutions, predominantly through multilateral development banks (MDBs) and private sector mobilisation. This approach ignores the structural debt burdens already crippling Africa. In 2024 alone, African countries paid $163 billion in debt service — nearly the same as the NCQG’s annual target for 2035. Such financial obligations leave little fiscal space for climate investments.
MDBs frequently impose conditions that exacerbate economic vulnerabilities. Loans come with interest rates that surpass those offered to wealthier nations, perpetuating cycles of dependency. Worse, MDB projects rarely account for the socio-economic contexts of African nations, prioritising profits over meaningful development.
For instance, Zambia and Ghana have faced International Monetary Fund restructuring programmes tied to stringent austerity measures, limiting their capacity to invest in renewable energy projects.
Private sector financing is no better. Investments tend to gravitate toward low-risk, high-return projects, sidelining critical but less profitable sectors such as rural electrification. Moreover, private finance often focuses on short-term returns rather than long-term structural transformation, undermining the resilience and inclusivity of funded projects.
These trends collectively highlight the pitfalls of debt-based climate finance. But the NCQG’s inadequacies are not just an African problem – they threaten global climate goals. The continent is home to vast renewable energy potential that could significantly contribute to decarbonisation efforts. But, without adequate financing, this potential remains untapped. The Global North’s refusal to act decisively compromises shared ambitions to limit warming, increasing the risk of catastrophic climate events that know no borders.
The promise of $300 billion by 2035 is not only insufficient; it’s a betrayal of the principles of climate justice. COP29 should have been a turning point for equitable financing and rapid action. Instead, it became a stage for the Global North to further entrench economic hierarchies.
Karabo Mokgonyana is a renewable energy campaigner at Power Shift Africa.