Measuring a country's capacity to achieve its NDC targets is crucial, because it provides the foundation for improving capacity development, enhancing knowledge and optimising financial flows.
In 2025, countries will submit their updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The NDCs are a response from member states to the 2015 Paris Agreement to reduce their carbon emissions as they work towards Net Zero by 2050.
But the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) and the Africa Group of Negotiators Expert Support (AGNES) identified that countries were not aligning their capacity for implementation with their response to the UNFCCC. In response, the IWMI and the AGNES have developed an NDC capacity scorecard to provide an objective measure for countries to ascertain whether they have the capability to meet their NDC targets and identify potential areas for capacity building in government and national institutions.
It is important for countries to have this understanding of their capability to deliver, given that they will be held to account for the targets that are set. The consequence of only focusing on ever increasing targets for emissions reduction is that most countries in the Global South don’t have the capacity to achieve the targets, which sets them up for failure.
A critical consideration is how to achieve a “whole of government” approach that links the business and private sector to develop a collaborative, sustainable approach. In a session held at the recent COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, this question was explored with inputs from South Africa, Kenya, Uganda and the National Business Initiative of South Africa. A framework for the discussion was provided by Brian Mantlana, of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research. Post-2015, the focus has been on domestic action — the “N” in NDC. Cooperative governance is key to the successful implementation of climate response.
Cooperative governance works best when coordinated from a central point, preferably from the presidency, as it is done in South Africa. This also enables accountability; the different government departments and institutions can be tracked through a national monitoring and evaluation system.
In most countries, the government ministries develop climate responses based on their specific mandates, capacities and allocated fiscal budgets. This requires comprehensive planning over different administrative terms of government. In response, a number of countries have adopted national development plans as a way to develop long-term strategies.
In addition, one should not downplay the various tiers of governance — national, provincial and local. Local governance is particularly important because that is where the implementation occurs.
Developing a conducive policy environment requires well-capacitated government officials. In some countries, knowledge of climate change remains limited across different ministries. Implementing NDCs effectively requires a dedicated and mandated institution with a deep understanding of climate change and its associated impacts. This knowledge centre is crucial given the complexity of climate variability, which requires a multi-, inter-, trans- and intra-
disciplinary approach. Addressing this problem requires equally complex and collaborative approaches to finding the solution.
Climate change at its core is a development issue for the Global South. From a livelihoods and wellbeing perspective, climate change poses significant economic and social threats. According to the World Meteorological Organisation, 1,839 disasters have been attributed to climate extremes in Africa from 1970 to 2021. These disasters caused 733,585 deaths and more than $40 billion in economic losses.
The experience of the water sector in managing events such as Day Zero approaching in Cape Town, which faced the real possibility of no water coming out of the taps, can be translated into measures and strategies, especially from an institutional integration perspective, to address climate impacts. The long-term comprehensive plans in national development plans must align with climate strategies to create an ecosystem of development and climate policies. These inter-linked long-term plans allow climate resilience to go beyond mandates and administrations.
But this coordination across the government is difficult to get right in practice. It requires a single government entity that can coordinate multiple institutes, mandates and capacities to ensure accountability within the system and that alignments are pursued with intent.
Everyone is working to be Net Zero by 2050 but has only a prescribed idea of how to get there. A single responsible and accountable government entity has to ensure alignment to national strategies and climate response plans.
Tied to this is a need to increase the knowledge base in society, business and the government. The more people and institutions understand what the effect of their action and non-action is on the planet, the sooner transformation into a climate responsive world can commence. Investing time and resources to build capacity is essential.
Measuring a country’s capacity to achieve its NDC targets is crucial, because it provides the foundation for improving capacity development, enhancing knowledge and optimising financial flows. Without such measurements, progress toward achieving these targets cannot be effectively managed or sustained.
Dr Henry Roman is the country and regional representative for Southern Africa, from the International Water Management Institute.
Acknowledgement: Mahlatse Nkosi for her valuable contribution to the session and the text