Chinese President Xi Jinping. (File photo)
For 80 years, from the end of World War II to 19 January 2025, there was one geopolitical blockbuster playing in every cinema.
The actors came and went, but they all knew their lines and stuck to the script, even when they improvised. Now, with several movies playing at the same time, leaders must manage complexity and uncertainty simultaneously.
For decades, the geopolitical stage was dominated by a single script — globalised institutions supported by American leadership. This script revolved around Western-style democracy, free markets and free trade, and aiming for peace and wealth through coordinated global interventions to deal with problems, from rising powers to regional conflicts.
But, as we get into 2025, the well-worn script has given way to a multiplex of competing narratives.
One of the most gripping features in this geopolitical multiplex is The China Syndrome. China has transitioned from mere competitor to a strategic adversary of the US in many respects.
The US is still the leading economic power with a GDP about $10 trillion bigger than that of China but Chinese influence is growing.
China boasts the largest standing army and advanced technologies like hypersonic missiles and cyber capabilities but America, with about 1.3 million soldiers, is still generally rated first for military power.
The confrontation spans multiple domains: technology, space, economics and alliances. The US response includes strategic realignments with allies including Japan and India, while fortifying its presence in critical areas like Taiwan and the Indian Ocean.
This movie is not just about rivalry; it’s about redefining global norms.
Another feature playing out is Wall Street, which focuses on America’s internal recalibration to improve competitiveness.
Focused on energy dominance, smaller government, deregulation and re-industrialisation through tariffs and technology protection, this story is about economic sovereignty as statecraft. Artificial intelligence, energy dominance and re-industrialisation are key themes in this plotline.
The Middle East remains a hotspot with overlapping narratives captured in a double feature titled Tehran & Black Hawk Down. Iran is seen as the root of extremism in the region, while Israel transforms from an ally to a strategic partner for the US.
This storyline forces regional players like Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan to make tough choices amid growing instability in Syria, Yemen and Sudan. The chain reaction of conflicts threatens not just regional security but also global energy supplies — a subplot that keeps audiences on edge.
Europe faces its own cinematic drama in Hunt for Red October. The Ukrainian conflict has become a European problem demanding collective responsibility. Russia emerges as both an adversary and a potential ally in countering China’s dominance. Europe and the UK must recalibrate their economy, defence policies and energy strategies.
This narrative underscores the struggle for Europe to assert itself on a fragmented global stage.
Africa enters the geopolitical multiplex with Out of Africa, where Muslim extremism and Chinese influence are key antagonists. The US, China and Europe are all cutting aid while vying for strategic minerals, geographic assets and energy investments. Initiatives like the Lobito Corridor Railway line aim to boost transport infrastructure for African allies.
But Africa faces tough choices between Western-leaning policies or aligning with China — a dilemma that could shape its future trajectory.
In The Gods Must Be Crazy, South Africa grapples with existential questions about governance models — free markets versus state control — and alliances with Western powers or China.
Corruption versus rule of law and affordable energy access remain recurring themes in navigating opportunities in energy and agriculture. The consequences of poor choices could lead to isolation or collapse under sanctions and restricted access to global financial systems.
Don’t forget Chitty Chitty Bang Bang, where the land of Vulgaria banned children. As before 1914, demographics influence decision-making.
China’s population could shrink from its current 1.4 billion to about 525 million by 2100, a reduction of more than 60%. Russia’s could drop by almost as much. No wonder they think that military adventurism has to happen now or never.
Across Asia, women seem to be losing interest in not just children but marriage, compounding the state-induced gender imbalance. Fertility rates in North Africa and parts of West Asia have also plunged.
By contrast, more than half the babies born globally in 2100 will be African, mostly West African. Imagine a future where Europe and East Asia compete desperately for Nigerian and Malian immigrants to sustain their ageing societies.
What makes today’s geopolitical landscape so challenging is not just the number of narratives but their interconnectedness. Leaders must navigate overlapping conflicts while balancing economic priorities and military strategies.
For instance, the US’s focus on trade and re-industrialisation cannot be divorced from its rivalry with China. These decisions ripple across global trade networks, policy choices and political alliances.
With the old script shredded, improvisation is essential. Leaders must embrace complexity, become creative and seek opportunities for innovation in uncertainty. As audiences worldwide watch these stories unfold, one thing is clear — managing complexity will be the defining skill of global leadership beyond 2025.
Francois Baird is a Distinguished Fellow at the Energy Policy Research Foundation (EPRINC) in Washington DC.