Developing cities like Cape Town are at great risk of climate risk, they need to plan smart
More than half (58 percent) of the world’s population lived in cities in 2024. This number is expected to jump to 70 percent by 2050.
As cities grow, they also become more prone to extreme weather events. A concentrated population and a dense built environment mean cities can suffer from heat island effects and be more easily flooded or battered by hurricanes and sea storms.
The consequences can be worse in developing and low-income cities, which are often overpopulated, have substandard infrastructure, and lack green cover. Because developing cities often face the greatest climate risks, it is, therefore, critical that they plan ahead and build smart.
Cape Town1(population 5 million) in South Africa and Mumbai2(population 12 million) in India are leading the way in this regard. Their total greenhouse gas emissions are similar, and both cities aim to reach net zero by 2050. Interestingly, both cities face complications with water: Mumbai grapples with too much and Cape Town with too little. Both situations are exacerbated by climate change.
Mumbai climate action plan
Located on the Arabian sea, Mumbai is highly vulnerable to rising sea-levels and many parts of the city could be under water by 2050 if current trends persist. Severe rainfall and flooding occur regularly and Mumbai is routinely ranked high on lists of the world’s cities most vulnerable to climate impacts. To help address these vulnerabilities, the city has set a goal to become carbon neutral by 2050, outstripping the national goal by 20 years. This includes reducing emissions by 30 percent by 2030 and 44 percent by 2040 (from a 2019 baseline).
To achieve these goals, Mumbai launched the Mumbai Climate Action Plan in 2022. The municipal corporation in Mumbai has allocated INR 31,775 crores (US$3.7 billion) for capital expenditure in FY25, with about a third of the funds earmarked for climate-relevant activities.
The majority (about 95%) of the money will be channeled towards flooding and water resource management. The remainder has been allocated to climate friendly activities such as the use of LED streetlights, planting trees to increase the city’s green cover, installing rooftop solar solutions to city owned buildings, and new sewage treatment plants. Mumbai has already taken steps like expanding protected mangrove areas, planting trees, and investing in public transport electrification.
Cape Town climate action plan
Cape Town is also acutely vulnerable to the impacts of extreme weather events and faces a complex set of challenges including water scarcity, insufficient infrastructure, social equity, and overall climate resilience.
The city has adopted a two-pronged approach: aiming for carbon neutrality by 2050 and outlining a strategy to implement large-scale adaptation measures, including a new water strategy focused on diversifying water sources (desalination, groundwater, and water recycling).
Cape Town is drawing on various public and private sources to fund the plan, including green funding instruments such as the city’s 2017 green bond and the C40 Cities Finance Facility. IFC is also supporting the city with an 18-year, ZAR 2.8 billion (US$150 million) loan for infrastructure upgrades and replacements, including electrical and transport infrastructure, and to expand water, sanitation and wastewater management infrastructure.
Following the lead from Cape Town and Mumbai
Mumbai and Cape Town show that developing cities can make tangible measures towards climate resilience. But how can other developing cities follow their lead? Drawing on decades of experience in the field, across South Asia and Africa, I believe the following steps are needed:
a) Awareness: Cities need to join the national dialogue on climate change and make climate a central element of city planning and budgeting. Cities also need to communicate to citizens the potential effects of extreme weather events — and emphasise the urgency of taking suitable action.
b) Action Plan: Cities should assess their climate footprints and vulnerability and then prepare action plans to address their adaptation needs, with a focus on physical infrastructure, water and electricity, transportation, green spaces and community needs. Action plans need to be aligned with the city’s development plan, and need to be inclusive by integrating inputs from citizens, government, businesses, and academia. It should identify a pipeline of projects for implementation.
c) Align with national action: National governments should include city representatives when developing national, sectoral, and thematic climate strategies and provide funding and incentives for climate action, especially to smaller and poorer cities.
d) Build capacity: Cities should create a climate change cell or department and allocate climate change responsibility within their governance structures. Cities can rely on their national governments for knowledge and resources and can also benefit from best practices shared by local and global peers.
e) Allocate resources: In parallel with capacity building, cities also need to allocate human and financial resources for climate action plans. This can be a challenge, though national governments can support with grants and devolved funds. Cities can borrow domestically from banks and DFIs, issue bonds, turn to commercial lenders and philanthropies or multilateral development banks and climate funds. Internal sources such as municipal fees and fares and savings from design and efficiency measures can augment funding sources.
f) Policy and implementation coherence: The final step—the last but perhaps the hardest—is long-term commitment. This requires substantial coordination within city agencies, but also with the national government. Implementation needs to be tracked and reported.
The two critical inputs to address the climate resilience challenge for cities are technical expertise and financing. Both are challenges in themselves, and cities need to embark on this journey sooner than later, if they are to provide a climate secure future for their citizens.
Rajeev Gopal, outgoing South Africa Senior Country Officer, IFC