(Oupa Nkosi)
We are living through tumultuous times. Amid skyrocketing living costs and a looming global recession, a climate crisis that is unfolding faster than previously anticipated and multiple geopolitical tensions that threaten to unleash conflict on entire regions, governments, including our own, will have to become more adaptable and flexible in addressing these and other novel systemic threats that result from the unpredictable ways in which they may converge.
But this imperative for flexibility and adaptability does not negate the need for consistency and continuity in the pursuit of long-term national objectives. Because circumstances beyond the control of governments change, course corrections in the form of strategy updates are inevitable in ensuring better alignment with the state’s long-term objectives.
When these corrections occur in the absence of a longer-term vision, or worse, when such a vision exists but is consciously overlooked, governance outcomes will, at best, be characterised by perpetual mediocrity. At worst, it will actively undermine state resilience and progress.
Although mention of it has become increasingly scant in recent years, South Africa happens to have a long-term vision for governance outcomes. Formally adopted by the government in 2012, the National Development Plan (NDP) 2030 articulates this vision for a more just and equitable society and identifies clear developmental and social objectives that should be achieved by 2030.
Honing on structural weaknesses, such as poverty, inequality and unemployment, its goals are explicit as are the strategies envisioned for their implementation in years to come. But more than just being a plan with tangible goals, it was hoped that the NDP would rally the country behind a common vision that could, over time, promote greater social cohesion.
And yet, in 2022 South Africa resembles a rudderless ship, aimlessly adrift in stormy seas. With poverty on the rise, unemployment levels in excess of 30%, violent crime proliferating, and infrastructure crumbling, government officials have already conceded that most, if not all, critical NDP targets for 2030 will be missed by a substantial margin.
As time runs out, there are also clear signs of conflict potential. Polarisation among South Africans and between South Africans and migrants from other parts of the African continent are reaching increasingly combustible levels, with political opportunists keenly exploiting these fault lines. In light of this, many fear the spectre of directed violence linked to perceptions of unfair resource distribution in a context of growing scarcity.
With the mayhem of the July 2021 looting sprees in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng still freshly imprinted in memories, it can legitimately be asked whether a weakened state apparatus will be able to pre-empt or counter any substantial, organised challenge to the rule of law when it occurs.
In a recent report by the Institute for Justice and Reconciliation, titled Vertical and Horizontal Tensions Stretching South Africa’s Social Fabric, colleague Jaynisha Patel and I contend that poor governance outcomes are now combining to put a severe strain on the country’s social fibre.
After positive developments in the first decade of democracy, the report not only provides evidence of a subsequent stagnation and deterioration in governance outcomes relating to poverty, inequality and employment, but it also points to a concurrent erosion of social cohesion as captured in public opinion results of the South African Reconciliation Barometer and Afrobarometer surveys.
Trust between South Africans is declining, as is the trust that citizens have in the state to execute its constitutional mandate. While recognising the constraints imposed by the country’s apartheid legacy, as well as external factors over which it has little control, the report argues that these are largely self-inflicted and attributable to a ruling party that has lacked consistency in sticking to and implementing a long-term development plan that it has crafted itself.
This has resulted in mediocre outcomes, and in instances like the poor management of the country’s energy supplies, nothing less than developmental sabotage. These are constraints that the country simply cannot afford at this critical juncture when people feel anxious and resources are scarce.
What needs to be done to improve governance outcomes? The report points to the blurring of lines between the state and the governing party as a critical impediment to improved outcomes. In this regard, the research underscores the extent to which state patronage has been used to reward factionalist loyalties in the party, resulting in a hollowing out of institutional capacity and discontinuity in policy and implementation. It contends that this has resulted in a political culture that is characterised by impunity, underpinned by poor legislative oversight and weakened checks and balances on executive power.
In this regard, the Judicial Commission into Allegations of State Capture, Corruption and Fraud in the Public Sector and Organs of State, or the Zondo commission for short, have provided ample evidence of the extent to which this has dealt near-fatal blows to the latter’s developmental capacity.
In light of this diagnosis, two of the core recommendations point back to some of the key long-term NDP proposals, aimed at promoting continuity and innovation within the state. These specifically relate to the creation of a competent and independent public service that is insulated from narrow party politics.
The state should be capacitated to implement government policy in a professional and competent way, without having to be affected by the whims of government changes or the internal machinations of ruling parties.
Such insulation should equally be extended to bodies that conduct oversight and provide checks and balances on state power to counter a prevailing impression that sanction is reserved only for those that fall out of favour with a predominant faction. Transparency and accountability demand adherence by all and should be applied without fear or favour.
In addition to the achievement of consistency and continuity in governance, the public service also needs to prioritise improved foresight capacity to become increasingly attuned to signals of change in its operating environment.
In this regard, we propose a stronger institutionalisation of strategic foresight practices across government to encourage systemic approaches that consider policy adjustments within the context of their alignment with the broader long-term vision.
Within a context of constrained resources, these proposals will cost relatively little but have substantial potential for catalytic change. More than anything else, they require a change in orientation that returns agency to South Africans.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Mail & Guardian.