Andy Capostagno Rugby
The statisticians will protest otherwise, but there are only four teams who can win the Super 12 this year: the Stormers (short-priced favourites even in New Zealand), the Otago Highlanders, the Queensland Reds and the Canterbury Crusaders.
In theory another six teams can still qualify for the semi-finals, but in practice the four who are currently in the frame will occupy the same places in two weeks’ time.
That may seem unfair, particularly on the Sharks, who escaped almost unscathed from last week’s defeat by the Chiefs thanks to the other results. And if the Sharks were up against any other team in the competition this weekend they would have a better than even money chance of a win. Unfortunately for Ian McIntosh’s charges, they have to play the Crusaders in Christchurch and that is a bridge too far.
A month ago the odds would have favoured the Sharks, but now Canterbury are on a roll. The second-half demolition of the Cats last week was reminiscent of the Auckland Blues’ 74-28 win against the Stormers last year. It was tidal-wave rugby, with Andrew Mehrtens piloting the surf board with familiar aplomb.
The noises coming from New Zealand suggest that All Black coach John Hart is in a pickle. Far from reappointing Taine Randell as his captain, Hart is no longer certain whether the Otago captain is Test class. Hart is uncertain about most things at the moment, in which case he should take careful note of which All Blacks stand up to be counted in the next fortnight.
Foremost among them is the superb Mehrtens, a man who, in English conditions, is capable of winning the World Cup on his own. Who else would have slotted the drop goal to win the game against the Northern Bulls a fortnight ago? Not one other fly- half in the world (although I might have put a few bob on Zinzan Brooke). In the circumstances Mehrtens’ lack of grace in celebration can be forgiven. If professional sportsmen live out the fantasies of those who watch them, then who hasn’t dreamed of doing exactly what Mehrtens did at Loftus?
And if the Crusaders are peaking at the right time, then the Highlanders are on the crest of a slump. They were so poor in beating the Brumbies 9-8 last week that it is no bad thing they have this week off to reassess.
The Highlanders have probably done enough already to earn a home semi-final, but the fixture list that sees them finish against the ever-unpredictable Hurricanes in Wellington does them no favours.
Last year it was the Hurricanes who began the season like a house on fire, becoming the only team ever to win three out of three in South Africa. After that they lost the plot so completely that they went from champions elect to not even making the semi-finals. Highlanders supporters may be feeling a sense of dj vu watching a superb side who may just have peaked too early.
If there is one side who have yet to peak at all it must be the Reds. Written off before the competition began due to the injury- enforced absence of their captain and talisman, John Eales, the Queenslanders have somehow lost only two games, one of which was by a single point to the Highlanders. They now find themselves lying third in the log with two home matches against the Cats and the Sharks to come.
It is unlikely that the Reds can earn a home semi-final, but if they can avoid the Stormers, they will fancy their chances of beating the Highlanders in Dunedin.
Those with short memories may need reminding that four years ago Queensland were the strongest province on the face of the Earth with back-to-back wins in the Super 10. Don’t expect them to do any favours for their South African opponents in the next two weeks.
That leaves us with the Stormers, a team who shrugged off the loss of Bobby Skinstad to play some of the best rugby of the season against the Blues last week. For once the statistics speak for themselves: the Blues had conceded seven tries in eight games prior to their visit to Newlands. The Stormers put four past them and they did it with less than 50% of the ball.
It is not the first time a South African side has revealed something true: the team that tackles well and takes its chances can beat anyone. It is a lesson worth bearing in mind during World Cup year and worth hanging on to for the rest of the tournament.
As with the other semi-finalists, the fixture list has favoured the Stormers. It is inconceivable that they can lose to the Chiefs this week or the Cats next week. After that everyone starts from scratch again.