Minister in the Presidency for Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation Maropene Ramokgopa. Photo: Supplied.
Newly elected ANC second deputy secretary general Maropene Ramokgopa has emerged as the biggest threat to Minister in the Presidency Mondli Gungubele’s position in President Cyril Ramaphosa’s cabinet amid talks of an imminent reshuffle.
Another view is that Ramokgopa will replace Naledi Pandor as the minister of international relations.
Insiders close to Ramaphosa say he is likely to reshuffle his cabinet this week with Ramokgopa, ANC deputy president Paul Mashatile and national executive committee (NEC) members Sihle Zikalala and Parks Tau set to be sworn in as members of parliament on Monday afternoon.
Ramokgopa, who is currently Ramaphosa’s international relations adviser, is said to be the leading contender for the position of minister in the presidency while Gungubele, who led the charge for Ramokgopa to become the faction’s choice for deputy secretary general, is said to be on the chopping block or will be moved to another ministry.
Ramokgoba’s position as Ramaphosa’s adviser also makes her the most eligible to head up the international relations ministry.
ANC insiders say Ramaphosa wants to keep Ramokgopa in his office and values her as his adviser.
Ramokgopa is also part of a powerful and politically connected family that includes newly elected ANC treasurer general Gwen Ramokgopa and head of the investment and infrastructure office in the office of the president, Kgosientso Ramokgopa.
Although Gungubele is a loyal ally of Ramaphosa, his actions — along with some other ANC leaders — annoyed the party’s president in the lead up to the Nasrec ANC elective conference.
Gungubele and Derek Hanekom led the renew22 campaign for Ramaphosa’s re-election, but some in the Ramaphosa faction refused to acknowledge them.
At the time, Eastern Cape chairperson and staunch Ramaphosa ally Oscar Mabuyane said Ramaphosa was a victim or a beneficiary of those who have identified their view with his.
Gungubele was among those in the Ramaphosa faction who were campaigning for Senzo Mchunu to become his running mate while provinces loyal to Ramaphosa were underwhelmed.
The rift in the faction resulted in a split as provincial leaders chose to field their own candidates.
The friction in the Ramaphosa faction left the deputy president position wide open for Mashatile.
In December, the Mail & Guardian reported that Ramaphosa had to intervene when Ronald Lamola and Mabuyane could not reach an agreement on who would be the candidate to go up against Mashatile.
An NEC member said that although there is a general perception that those aligned with Ramaphosa made the cut in the national working committee, loyal Ramaphosa lieutenants Joe Phahla and Soviet Lekganyane failed to make the cut despite efforts by Gungubele and other power players.
“Mondli made it to the national working committee by the whiskers because the gender parity thing kicked in. This is telling and Ramaphosa knows it. I would say the one person who should be concerned in the Chris Hani cabal is Gungubele,” another NEC insider said.
The cabal consists of party chair Gwede Mantashe, Mabuyane, finance minister and NEC member Enoch Godongwana, as well as Gungubele. All four are from the Chris Hani region in the Eastern Cape.
Mabuza asked to stay on
Meanwhile, Ramaphosa is said to have made attempts to convince his current deputy, David Mabuza, against resigning from his post to make way for Mashatile.
Insiders tied to Mabuza said that despite efforts by Ramaphosa to stall the cabinet reshuffle that would ultimately lead to Mashatile taking a position in the Union Buildings, Mabuza had made up his mind.
Mabuza and Mashatile rekindled their relationship late last year and have been in talks on the matter.
During a funeral in Mpumalanga on Saturday, Mabuza said he was going to resign as deputy president to make way for Mashatile.
TimesLive reported that the presidency office confirmed that Ramaphosa had requested the deputy president to remain in his position until such time that the modalities of his departure and transition had been finalised.
Ramaphosa is believed to be buying time, with insiders saying he was meant to announce his reconfigured cabinet on Sunday. Mabuza’s allies said he was resolute that he would not stay as deputy president.
Insiders said Ramaphosa and Mashatile had met three times since their election at Nasrec to discuss a smooth transition in government.
According to the party insiders, the two ANC leaders met once in December, shortly after the governing party’s conference where Mashatile beat Mabuyane and Ronald Lamola for the position of ANC deputy president.
The two are said to have met twice in January — once during the Free State conference and again shortly thereafter — where the reconfiguration of government was discussed.
Speculation has been rife that Ramaphosa will fire some of his detractors and poor performing cabinet ministers.
Those close to Mashatile have been “anxiously” waiting for him to be sworn in as an MP.
ANC insiders said the inclusion of Mashatile in the provincial list to parliament came after serious wrangling by Gauteng ANC leadership.
It was initially understood that former West Rand mayor Boyce Maneli would make way for Mashatile in the National Assembly, but he declined. “He was not satisfied with his redeployment,” one party leader said.
This is when provincial secretary TK Nciza convinced another MP, Tshilidzi Munyai, to make way for Mashatile.
“It’s a matter of when Mashatile will be appointed as the deputy president, and not if he will be appointed. Comrade David] Mabuza has already indicated that he will resign. He is only waiting for Paul to be sworn in so that there is no vacuum,” one party leader said.
Another insider said there had been efforts to frustrate the process by some in the Ramaphosa camp, but this was thwarted by the two ANC leaders in the presidency.
“There are some who are uncomfortable with Mashatile taking up an office at the Union Buildings,” one NEC member said. They added that Mashatile has been received well by “capital”, which was a threat to those aligned to Ramaphosa.
“Mashatile will not be a lame duck deputy president. His ultimate ambition is to be the head of state. Big business and wealth managers are not opposed to him, in fact they are disappointed with Ramaphosa, and Mashatile is a pleasant alternative. If you look at it that way, he becomes the dominant faction’s biggest threat,” the NEC member said.
Mashatile ruffled some feathers when he held an impromptu media briefing shortly after Ramaphosa delivered the ANC’s annual 8 January statement in Mangaung, with some accusing him of trying to steal the spotlight.
When questioned by journalists, Mashatile said he had been instructed by officials, but the high-ranking NEC member said this annoyed some in the Ramaphosa camp.
The insider added that there were some in the Ramaphosa camp who thought Mabuza should stay on as deputy president, or that a high-ranking female leader should take his place.
But secretary general Fikile Mbalula dismissed this rumour during a recent media briefing, saying it was expected that Mashatile, as the ANC deputy president, would take over Mabuza’s post as deputy president of South Africa.
“There is a deputy president who has now been elected, who, if the deputy president resigns the president can then appoint him or any other member to become a deputy president. But ideally it is the deputy president who is the deputy president of the ANC who becomes deputy president of the country. When that happens the president will announce it,” he said.
Ramaphosa’s reshuffle will probably draw the line in a battle for control for the future of the ANC. While the party has five years to prepare for its next elective conference, there is already talk of who will take over from Ramaphosa.
This could happen sooner rather than later, should Ramaphosa be found wanting by state agencies investigating the Phala Phala scandal.
The controversy brought Ramaphosa to the brink of resignation last year after a panel headed by former chief justice Sandile Ngcobo concluded that he had a case to answer on four charges contained in an impeachment motion tabled by the African Transformation Movement (ATM), and recommended that he faced an impeachment inquiry. Ngcobo was heading an independent panel of silks appointed by the National Assembly.
The report was eventually rejected by the National Assembly after ANC MPs closed ranks around the president. But the ATM has filed court papers asking that the vote be set aside because the speaker acted “irrationally” when she refused an opposition request for a secret ballot.
The charges in the impeachment motion echoed those the two-seat opposition party formulated in its complaint to the public protector.
The public protector’s office has said that it has concluded its investigation into the scandal.
Although ANC tradition has seen deputy presidents ascending to the number one position, some in the party are said to be eyeing Mbalula as a possible contender for the top job.
Mbalula could be Mashatile’s biggest threat for ANC president because of a younger NEC, but one party leader said it was too early to tell.
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