As South Africa marches towards next year’s elections, the prospect of the 30-year-old democracy being led by a coalition is more tangible than ever.
With certain polls predicting that support for the governing ANC will drop below 50%, a coalition government of some form has become a real possibility. But a disastrous track record in some municipalities, and especially in economic powerhouse Johannesburg, has raised questions about the ability of coalitions to bring about stability. This as the country stares down the likelihood of another period of anaemic growth, a predicament with the potential to stir social disquiet.
But South Africa’s coalition experiment is not doomed to failure, with some suggesting that a multi-party government may well bring about economic stability — if its political leaders plan for that eventuality.
“The likelihood of a coalition government is much higher than we have seen historically,” according to Momentum Investments economist Sanisha Packirisamy, who made note of recent surveys showing an apparent decline in ANC support ahead of the 2024 general elections.
A recent report by the Social Research Foundation (SRF) — a privately funded think-tank with a board chaired by Frans Cronje, the former chief executive of the Institute of Race Relations — showed that the ANC’s potential share of next year’s vote had slipped to 46% in October.
The SRF’s findings are based on a survey of 1 412 registered voters, with a national margin of error of about 5%. It follows another survey by the Brenthurst Foundation, a think-tank established and funded by the Oppenheimer family, which found that the ANC could win 41% of the vote.
Conducted after seven opposition parties signed the Multi-party Charter for South Africa, the survey by the Brenthurst Foundation also supports the view that a coalition could get a leg up on the ANC.
According to the survey, the grouping could win 36% of the vote. The charter is made up by the Democratic Alliance (DA), Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), ActionSA, Freedom Front Plus, the United Independent Movement, the Spectrum National Party, the Independent South African National Civic Organisation, as well as the African Christian Democratic Party, which signed on last month.
Three quarters of the survey’s respondents said they would be happy to see South Africa governed by a coalition.
But the surveys also leave the door open for the ANC remaining in power with the help of smaller parties.
“If that happens,” Packirisamy said, “that means the status quo on policy will prevail … But if there is a larger coalition partner, I think that is where things become a lot more sticky.”
This is where a potential alliance between the ANC and the EFF would fit. This scenario has been referred to by DA leader John Steenhuisen as the “doomsday coalition”.
The prospect of an ANC-EFF pact also seems to send shivers down the spines of investors. Earlier this year, Krutham’s Peter Attard Montalto wrote that in this scenario the “live rails” of South African policy will truly be touched.
During a press briefing ahead of his medium-term budget speech, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana said that in the scenario where the governing party slips below 50%, it is likely that whatever coalition is formed will include the ANC.
“A scenario post the elections in 2024 is a government in which the ANC will be a part. I don’t see a scenario in which there is a government that the ANC is not a part of,” he said.
“I think everybody is drawing a lesson from the local government coalitions. I don’t think that, at a national level, everybody would like to have a president today and next month a new president. At a national level, we are going to require stability.”
Packirisamy said a coalition government between the ANC and the EFF would be viewed very negatively by markets, which would expect a more “leftist” policy stance from the alliance.
The EFF, for example, has pushed for the nationalisation of the South African Reserve Bank — something the ANC has committed to in its policy documents, but has never genuinely pursued.
Markets might be happier to see a coalition formed by the ANC and the DA, Packirisamy said. But this outcome appears to be off the table for the time being.
Perhaps the biggest question mark when it comes to a coalition-led government relates to the timeframe in which it is formed. After an election, the new government must be sworn in within 14 days, leaving limited time to negotiate on the coalition’s policy position. In other countries, these negotiations can take months.
“In South Africa, because that timeframe is so short, it is more about lobbying for positions — and so it doesn’t really further the economic prospects of the country,” Packirisamy noted.
“So that can be to South Africa’s detriment, because you don’t have that longer timeframe in which to actually negotiate on policies that can help citizens in the country.”
The DA has advocated for this period to be extended to 30 days to give parties sufficient time to negotiate coalition agreements.
Despite the negative association with coalitions at a local government level, Packirisamy said the transition towards a multi-party framework signals that South Africa’s democracy is maturing.
“It can potentially allow for more checks and balances to be in place than if you have one dominant party,” she added.
“It also then opens the door to say there is not one dominant party that has the holy grail to fix the economy. So you get input from various parties to come up with an economic solution. You can also open the door to appointments being done on a merit basis … They’ve got choices that they wouldn’t necessarily have had under one dominant party.”
Governance expert William Gumede, who chaired the talks on the multi-party charter, shares the view that coalition governments can lead to greater economic stability.
According to Gumede, coalitions stand out as the most successful form of governance in post-colonial Africa. He cited South Africa’s Government of National Unity, which was presided over by then president Nelson Mandela after 1994, as well as the coalitions that have governed Mauritius — one of the oldest democracies in Africa and also one of the continent’s wealthiest.
Notwithstanding the news-grabbing failures in the Johannesburg, Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay metros, coalitions have also had successes at the level of local government, Gumede said.
On concerns about policy discord, Gumede noted that the multi-party charter has endeavoured to avoid unpredictability through a pre-election pact, something that has not yet been attempted in South Africa.
“Prior to the elections, you negotiate your compromises. When you’re not in government, you see what will be your key policy programmes. You agree on what your cabinet will look like — who will be appointed … You have a better chance of stability that way,” Gumede explained.