and diplomatic isolation from the West if it sabotages the current four-nation peace initiative begun in London this week. A joint communiqué following the two day talks yesterday said progress had been made and there would be a follow-up meeting at an undisclosed African venue.
However, with the military balance still tipped in Pretoria's favour, there appears little incentive for South Africa to offer concessions to the Cubans and the Angolans whom they faced over the negotiating table this week. It is widely believed that the military has no intention of letting go of Namibia by implementing resolution 435 and that control of Southern Angola is essential to neutralise Swapo.
The view that South Africa has prepared for a long war in Angola was reinforced by the remarks in parliament this week by President PW Botha who appeared unwilling to make any concessions. But there are strong diplomatic pressures on South Africa not to wreck the initiative.
The Americans, who were reportedly the most optimistic of the four delegations, have a keen interest in securing peace in Angola and toting up major foreign policy success before le end of the Reagan administration. The Soviets, who watched from the wings, are also strongly in favour of a settlement though they are not prepared to abandon their Angolan clients at any cost to their prestige. Both superpowers and the Western European powers have viewed with alarm the escalation in the conflict arias the last nine months, with Cuito Cuanavale rating as the greatest land battle on the African continent since the Second World War.
It is believed a deal is being negotiated between the two superpowers in terms of which the ravaged Angolan economy will, like that of Mozambique, be drawn into the Western sphere …
