After a long period of monastic silence, the lure of the July was too tempting for Thomas Equinus and he is back in the saddle predicting a 16-1 winner
BETTING on the Rothmans July will be even more hazardous this year. The race is run in KwaZulu/Natal, a highly inflammable civil war zone. By the time the event is due to be run, it may already have suffered an apocalypse, leaving sporadic bottles of Spanish Fly on the beach as the only natural resource in the region.
Even if the race is run, it could end in chaos, seeing that Inkatha Freedom Party leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi has called for international mediation over the photo-
There is also concern that the course veterinary surgeon might have to shoot a badly injured horse on the day. It is widely feared that Prince Sifiso Zulu will start shooting back.
Even the threat of a regional Armageddon should not dampen the enthusiasm of South African punters, who have an obsessional love for the “Durban July”, a race first contested in 1897, and run over 2 200m at Greyville on the first Saturday of the month.
Our obsession with the July is difficult to understand. After all, the whole thing is over in two minutes, and during that time the commentator’s voice approximates the frantic squawkings of a Cato Ridge chicken on death row. Why, then, do South Africans punt on the big race? Much of our inspiration comes from our culture of crime. After all, it takes a gang of bank robbers in Gauteng only five minutes to exchange proletarian for Randlord status. And they don’t even have to spend the normal 20-year bridging period in Parkhurst.
Some punters, however, are masochists who use their annual July betting flutter as a means of punishing themselves. A popular self-flagellation method is to take a Double, in which you yoke your July selection to some highly improbable second forecast. For example, you might take 300-1 on the July favourite coupled with the proposition that, by Sunday, Allan Boesak will have discovered R700 000 of Danish money in a shoebox under his bed.
The most popular method of picking a July winner is to consult a witchdoctor who isn’t presently occupying a seat in Parliament. Since the civil war broke out in KwaZulu, the “throwing of the bones” usually involves the upward propulsion of bits of a deceased political opponent. If the pieces come down at an unexpected angle, and pierce the witchdoctor’s arm or leg, this is generally taken as bad news for the favourite, and a good time to leave the kraal.
One can, of course, eschew local methods of divination and rely on something more European. The ancient Greeks, for example, used to predict the future by examining the entrails of animals. The pong which regularly confronted these seers explains the proliferation of Stoics, Sceptics and Cynics in that
The urban Indian from Durban has adapted this procedure, and instead examines the entrails of a family member who has eaten a particularly challenging curry. “Two things are obvious,” one will often hear an Indian necromancer say on race day. “Western Rocket will win the July, and Rajesh needs an imodium.”
Women punters have a different method of picking July winners. They place inordinate, nay superstitious, value on the names of the runners. Horses with names like Alimony, Plastic Surgery and Husband’s Paycheck are automatically ensured of attracting enthusiastic female betting support.
After this year’s field was announced, women betters quickly poured a fortune onto Chief Advocate, a lightly concealed celebration of their divorce lawyers’ matchless skills.
One could, of course, use the old-fashioned method of “reading form”, ie one examines all the relevant data by way of making a rational, intelligent and considered prediction for the race. Alas, this method is no longer in use. All South Africans capable of thinking like this now live in Perth.
There is a better method still — trust in the Catholic Church and the infallible word of Thomas Equinus, the Lord’s earthly representative among the equine
After a week of fasting, two without sex, and three without hallucinogenic communion wafers, I have entered into an elevated mystical plane and can see the future clearly. It’s a great future, although most of it is on cable, and you can only get connected by writing to Louis Luyt.
It is written in the stars that At the Savoy will win this year’s Rothman’s July at 16-1. This may surprise you, but then The Lord works in very mysterious ways. This year, for example, He rewarded South Africa with a World Cup victory even though the country still tolerates the publication of Scope magazine.
The next trick up the Divine Sleeve is to bless Michael “Muis” Roberts with a July winner. Roberts, after all, is called “The Pope” by the British media because of his habit of waving when he enters the No 1 box. This is pleasing unto The Eternal. Also portentous is the fact that At the Savoy is No 6 — the very same numeral that our glorious President sported on his back at last week’s rugby. Roberts is South Africa’s greatest ever rider, but victory in the July has always eluded him. This year he has flown out from Britain to ride At the Savoy and a victory guarantee has been underwritten by
Those of you who are laughing would do well to consider that last year At the Savoy went into the July after recording consecutive wins in Natal feature races. He was forced to check in the big race, however, but still finished a three-length sixth behind Space Walk. This year the five-year-old gelding only carries 0,5kg more than he carried then, and comes into the race after a fluent win over 1 600m at Kenilworth. He hasn’t run since May 20, but loves racing fresh and will get a peach of a ride from barrier position No 5.
Unlike some of his vaunted opponents, At the Savoy has no stamina doubts. He will definitely win — trust me, I’m a bogus priest. If I didn’t know the result in advance, I’d say this was the hardest July I’d ever seen. I therefore understand why some of you fancy horses like National Emblem, Surfing Home, Teal, Fire Arch, Record Edge, Special Preview, Tickets and Tax, Imperial Despatch and even Chief Advocate.
National Emblem is probably the best of this long list of second-place hopefuls. The three-year-old has a fabulous record, but I’d have been more confident if he’d spent more time in Durban during the feature
Surfing Home finished first last year, but was demoted to fifth following an objection. His preparation has not been ideal, but you’d be a fool not to give the Met winner a big chance.
Teal has won both his races during the Natal Feature Season. This gelding is a veritable midget, but he has guts aplenty and could pull it off.
Of the others I’ve mentioned, Special Preview is certainly the most talented. A poor draw and limited preparation might, however, lead to him running below
THE RUNNERS
1 Surfing Home (Trainer: Millard Jockey: Lloyd Weight: 58kg) Finished first last year but was demoted to fifth after causing interference. Won the J&B Met under the same weight as he carries this time. Will have come on with his last run and has top jockey Jeff Lloyd aboard. Rating: Good
2 Space Walk (Trainer: Maingard Jockey: Shea Weight: 55,5kg) Won last year’s race on an objection. Hasn’t raced much, or won, since then and looks to have his work cut out. Rating: Poor
3 Fire Arch (Trainer: P Shaw Jockey: Strydom Weight: 54kg) Finished well behind Surfing Home in the Met but that run is best ignored. Finished a good third in the Greyville 1900 last time and could have found the ideal travelling companion in Piere Strydom. Has attracted some support and merits respect. Rating: Fair
4 Imperial Despatch (Trainer: Azzie Jockey: A Marcus Weight: 54kg) Has a 2kg weight turnaround with Surfing Home for a 1,5-length beating in the Met. Rates a chance on that outing, but would prefer a longer straight. Rating: Fair
5 Firle Beacon (Trainer: Tambourlas Jockey: Neisius Weight: 53,5kg) Looks comfortably held by National Emblem on their last meeting. Ran well to finish second behind Fire Arch (2,5kg worse off) in the Premier’s Cup three runs back but will need to run a blinder to finish in the frame. Rating: Poor
6 At the Savoy (Trainer: Kruyer Jockey: M Roberts Weight: 53kg) Came right back to form last time. Joins the Natal circuit for the first time this season but has modern-day legend Muis Roberts in the saddle. Was forced to check in last year’s July when running a close-up sixth and merits strong consideration. Rating:
7 Barrellen (Trainer: De Kock Jockey: Bonham Weight: 53kg) Won the Woolavington Cup in a slow time in his last start. Should confirm the form with runner-up Elete Fov (2,5kg worse off) but faces stiffer opposition now. Rating: Fair minus
8 Elete Fov (Trainer: Edges Jockey: Delpech Weight: 53kg) Just failed to collar Barrellen in the Woolavington and is now worse off with his conqueror. Yet to win at the course and looks unlike to challenge. Rating: Poor
9 Chief Advocate (Trainer: Stewart Jockey: Sutherland Weight: 53kg) The joker in the pack. Has only raced once since breaking down in the 1993 Gold Cup, but — significantly — he won that comeback race in a canter. Was a top-rate three-year-old and could shine under 53kg. Watch betting. Rating: Fair plus
10 Record Edge (Trainer: De Kock Jockey: Whyte Weight: 52,5kg) Bang in form, having registered back- to-back feature wins during the Natal Feature Season. Obviously in great nick and the question to ask is “Will he stay?” If he does, he’ll run a cracker from No 2 draw. Rating: Fair plus
11 Sleek Machine (Trainer: Brown Jockey: Randolph Weight: 52,5kg) Set a course record when winning over 1800m at Clairwood last time out. Has a much tougher task here and will need to be at the top of his game to challenge. Rating: Unlikely
12 Zelator (Trainer: Stewart Jockey: Louw Weight: 52,5kg) Ran a shocker in the Woolavington Cup, finishing downfield behind Barrellen. Last time out registered a shock win by beating Festive Forever (0,5kg worse off) in the Greyville 1900 when re- equipped with blinkers. Wears blinkers again tomorrow and could shape. Rating: Fair minus
13 La Fabulous (Trainer: Greeff Jockey: Venter Weight: 52kg) Port Elizabeth raider who will need to improve to reverse the form with Teal, who finished 2,5 lengths ahead of him last time. Drawn wide and has as much chance of winning as the lights have of working at the next PE rugby test. Rating: Poor
14 National Emeblem (Trainer: Laird Jockey: Van Wyk Weight: 52kg) Top three-year-old, with nine wins from 12 starts. Two of his three defeats, however, have been at this track. Yet to race over the distance but has won over the tough Turffontein 1800m trip. Drawn in pole position and has strong rider Rhys van Wyk in the saddle. Must go close provided he doesn’t get too far back on the bend. Rating: Good
15 Teal (Trainer: P Shaw Jockey: Geroudis Weight: 52kg) Small animal but gutsy, and has notched up five wins and eight seconds from 13 starts. His last two wins have been at the course and he has a win over 2200m to his credit. Midgets have tights too, and he should make a bold bid from No 3 draw. Rating: Good
16 Western Rocket (Trainer: Payne Jockey: Fradd Weight: 52kg) Cramped last time when finishing a 3,5- length second to Tickets and Tax in the 2400m Natal Derby last time out. Has the worst of the draw and shouldn’t shape on this occasion. Rating: Unlikely
17 Special Preview (Trainer: Soma Jockey: Van Zyl Weight: 52kg) Ultra-talented six-time winner from 10 starts. Needed his last run when a brilliant long-head second to National Emblem (1kg better off) over 1700m at Gosforth Park last time. Will strip fitter now and should make a bold bid if able to overcome a poor draw. Rating: Fair plus
18 Tickets and Tax (Trainer: P Shaw Jockey: Jupp Weight: 52kg) Good recent form includes a close second behind stablemate Teal in the Daily News 2000, and a fluent win in the Natal Derby. Drawn wide but should relish this distance. Chance. Rating: Fair plus
19 Summer Line (Trainer: Ferraris Jockey: Mawing Weight: 51,5kg) Hardy filly who has notched up stakes earnings of over R500 000. Ran a creditable third in the Premier’s Cup behind Fire Arch (1,5kg worse off) and could just make the frame on that level of form. Rating: Fair minus
20 Festive Forever (Trainer: Millard Jockey: Chelin Weight: 51,5kg) Has run close behind July entrants in her last four starts. Was hampered last time when second to Zelator (0,5kg better off) in the Greyville 1900. Drawn wide but trained by Tony Millard and cannot be dismissed. Rating: Fair minus
JEFF BURNS’ BETTING
5-1 Record Edge, National Emblem
6-1 Surfing Home
7-1 Fire Arch
12-1 Special Preview
14-1 Teal
16-1 Imperial Despatch, At the Savoy,
Tickets and Tax
20-1 Western Rocket
25-1 Barrellen, Elete Fov, Chief Advocate, Sleek Machine, Zelator
33-1 Festive Forever
50-1 Space Walk, Firle Beacon,
La Fabulous, Summer Line
* While every effort has been made to check details provided, the Mail and Guardian takes no responsibility for efforts inadvertently made.