Marion Edmunds
The R-word hit the newspaper headlines with meaning for the first time this week, after ANC hard-liner MP Pravin Gordhan warned minority parties that if negotiations failed, a referendum would be a reality.
At a time when parties are shaping up to negotiate the worst of the disputes in the final constitution, this statement has jolted smaller political parties out of any sort of complacency, and perhaps that was what it was intended to do.
The Democratic Party’s Colin Eglin commented this week that a referendum on the constitution would be a disaster. If you take the merits of the recent interim constitution in Kempton Park, it was seen as a healing document. If this constitution was taken to a referendum to break a deadlock, it would divide society and open up old wounds. To contemplate that sort of action is extraordinary and counter-productive to nation-building.
Ironically, it is the interim constitution that makes a referendum a possibility. The Kempton Park negotiators built a referendum into the constitutional text as the ultimate deadlock-breaking mechanism. If parties cannot reach consensus on the final constitution and Parliament fails to pass the constitution with a two-thirds majority, then the interim constitution stipulates that the partially supported constitution should be put to the public for the final say.
If the public then votes in favour of the constitution by more than 60%, it becomes the constitution of the land. If not, Parliament dissolves and fresh elections are held for a new Constitutional Assembly.
With the successes of the local government elections behind it, the African National Congress believes firmly that it would win a constitutional referendum with a fair margin.
Clearly though, it is not a first choice for resolving political impasses, but the ANC is not shy to use the threat of a referendum to reinforce its position as the most powerful negotiator in the Constitutional Assembly.
A referendum is very tempting, said a senior ANC negotiator. I mean, if smaller parties dig in their heels on matters, we could do it.
A number of negotiators from opposition parties say the ANC has never flashed the referendum card in the course of behind-the-scenes bilaterals. However, they insist that ANC MPs drop the referendum possibility in informal conversations, as an unsubtle reminder to the opposition of what could happen if the process went off the rails.
The practicalities of a referendum are mind-blowing. It would cost billions of taxpayers’ rands and would probably be run by a body like the Independent Electoral Commission. The pre-referendum lobbying would end up like a bitter election campaign, and the country would once more have to go to the polls to vote for democracy.
Furthermore, it would probably plunge IFP-led KwaZulu- Natal into chaos. Given that the IFP is resisting the constitution-making process, it would feel justified, no doubt, in resisting the outcome of the referendum which would result in the loss of the province’s autonomy.
A referendum might also backfire on the ANC in Parliament as it could serve to unite all the opposition parties against the ANC on number of key issues of principle.
Corne Mulder of the Freedom Front (FF) said: I think that the ANC is making a mistake in the way it is interpreting the mood of the country at the moment as positive, probably due to the recent sporting successes. South Africa still has a long way to go before it is stable.
In many ways it does not matter if the smaller parties like the DP and the FF squeal at the ANC for its arrogance. If anything, this reminder from the ANC about what it could do to get its way is directed at the IFP, which is still boycotting the process, and the National Party, which needs to be reigned in if they want to get the requisite two-thirds majority consensus to pass the constitution.
While some NP members believe that the ANC is threatening them, the NP, through the voice of Constitutional Minister Roelf Meyer, remains civil: We take it that the ANC is committed to a constitution adopted by full or general consensus, and that is our approach too. We presume that the ANC is sticking to that position as it was stated by Cyril Ramaphosa over recent months.