Gaye Davis
AFRICAN NATIONAL CONGRESS chairman Jacob Zuma is emerging as a strong contender for the position of deputy president of the organisation.
President Nelson Mandela’s announcement that he would step down as ANC president at the organisation’s conference in December 1997, and as the country’s president in 1999, has paved the way for Deputy President Thabo Mbeki to take over.
There is broad acceptance of this: in terms of experience and seniority in the ANC, Mbeki stands head and shoulders above any other candidate.
Not only has he been anointed by Mandela as his heir, but his election as deputy ANC president in 1994 made it clear the job was his: in terms of ANC tradition, the deputy president has always become president.
But it does not follow that whoever becomes deputy ANC president will also become the country’s deputy president.
For a start, it would undermine Mbeki’s constitutional prerogative, as president, to choose his own deputy from the ranks of members of the national assembly. It is also unlikely that anyone ambitious enough to want the position would be content to remain in it until Mbeki completed what could be a lengthy term.
In addition, Mbeki may want flexibility in his choice. If his deputy is there by his own choice, it would be easier for him to effect a reshuffle, in consultation with members of Cabinet, than it would be if the deputy were effectively elected by the ANC conference.
A scenario under discussion in the upper echelons of the ANC is that it would make sense for Zuma, if elected deputy president, to remain at his KwaZulu- Natal base. Having the former ANC intelligence chief there would be important to counter the impact of Inkatha Freedom Party Chief Mangosuthu Buthlezi actually carrying out his threat of leaving the government of national unity and returning to lead the province. Zuma’s elevation within the ANC would also assist him in any contest with Buthelezi for the premiership. In terms of experience and seniority, Zuma would carry the support of large sections of the ANC. If he were to stand, other contenders could see the battle as already won.
More pressing for the ANC at present is finding a new secretary general to replace Cyril Ramaphosa. Cheryl Carolus, elected to the position of deputy secretary general at the ANC’s 1994 conference, is said to be Mandela’s favourite for the post but is understood to be reluctant to take it on if she cannot count on the full support of national and provincial structures.
It emerged this week that top-level discussions are under way around redeploying some ANC MPs to the national office to provide her with the full-time back-up she needs. If this comes about it is possible that the National Executive Committee will appoint her as secretary general to run the organisation until fresh elections are held at conference in 1997.
While the National Union of Mineworkers has indicated that it is not prepared at present to release its leader, Kgalema Motlanthe, for the position, this could have changed by the time conference comes around.
Presidential aide Joel Netshitenzhe has declined to make himself available for the post. A firm favourite with the ANC Youth League, it is understood he prefers not to abandon ship until Mandela’s term ends.