THE Algerian agony gets worse. It also=20 becomes an even more intractable conflict.=20 More than 200 people have died since the=20 start of Ramadan. Those murdered by=20 government militia or in reprisals on=20 civilians are not listed. It is, like all=20 internal conflicts, vicious on both sides.
The regime’s security forces use napalm,=20 torture prisoners and punish civilians. The=20 Muslim fundamentalist armed groups plant=20 bombs in city markets, where maximum=20 carnage will be caused. Government=20 ministers are no longer pretending only=20 “residual terrorism” remains after five=20 years of fighting. Whatever else may be=20 obscure about this appalling conflict, it=20 has by now assumed the character of a civil=20 war.
The latest bombings also suggest an=20 important shift of strategy by the Armed=20 Islamic Group, which leads the=20 fundamentalist assault on the army- dominated government. The security forces=20 have succeeded in penetrating many no-go=20 areas in the countryside. By simple=20 repression, by raising militia with the=20 promise of generous pay, and perhaps by=20 covertly encouraging smaller extremist=20 groups, they have created their own version=20 of terror. This is one reason for the=20 guerrillas’ shift into the urban areas.
The second factor driving the guerrillas is=20 a calculation familiar from many previous=20 civil wars – including the one in Algeria=20 four decades ago. It is the need to ensure=20 that the country does not fade from the=20 headlines, that the foreign governments=20 accepting the current regime have some=20 incentive to reconsider their policy, and=20 that the fiction of an improvement in the=20 situation is brutally exposed.=20
If necessary, ordinary civilians (who may=20 sympathise with the fundamentalists) will=20 be sacrificed to make the point. Some may=20 even die at the mosque, as was claimed for=20 one recent incident, although that could=20 equally well be a “provocation”.
Could any of this have been avoided? It has=20 become idle to argue whether or not the=20 annulment of parliamentary elections -=20 after the Islamic Salvation Front won the=20 first round – was wise or justified. The=20 clock cannot be turned back that far. What=20 is clear is that since then the regime has=20 been bereft of wit or imagination to=20 provide a political alternative that might=20 either entice or isolate the=20 fundamentalists.
President Lamine Zeroual staged a=20 constitutional referendum in November that=20 banned political parties founded on=20 religion and loaded the system in the=20 government’s favour. His claim of an=20 overwhelming 85% vote in favour is=20 unbelievable. The regime has no strategy=20 except to hang on, keep the country roads=20 open by day and patrol the cities by night.=20 It is a familiar formula – Vietnam springs=20 to mind. And sooner or later it will=20 destroy Algeria for all Algerians.