Chris McGreal in Kigali
ZAIRE’S ragged army has claimed the first=20 victory of its long-awaited counter- offensive against Rwandan-backed rebels,=20 saying it has taken a town it has never=20 admitted to losing in the first place.
Within a few days of launching its “total=20 and devastating” attack last week against=20 the guerrilla Alliance of Democratic Forces=20 for the Liberation of Congo-Zaire, the=20 government claimed this week to have seized=20 Walikale.
If true, it is a remarkable reversal of=20 fortune for an army that crumbled in the=20 face of the rebel onslaught in eastern=20 Zaire in October. More likely the battle=20 for the town, 130km west of rebel=20 headquarters in Goma, has only begun.
The Zairean army is keen to revise its=20 image as a force unable to do much but=20 loot, rape and flee. The airport at=20 Kisangani – the northern base for the=20 government’s strike – is piled high with=20 weapons and awash with soldiers in their=20 first new uniforms in years. Newly leased=20 attack helicopters and jets sit on the=20 runway.
Zairean radio has conjured up unswerving=20 international support for the counter- attack. Top of the list is a promise of=20 assistance from Libya, including air=20 strikes by Colonel Moammar Gadaffi’s=20 pilots.
But most faith is placed in white=20 mercenaries. Their Belgian leader claims to=20 have about 300 men.=20
But the mercenaries are unlikely to make a=20 difference on their own. Soldiers from the=20 South African firm Executive Outcomes=20 strengthened government forces in Angola=20 and Sierra Leone against rebel armies, but=20 in both cases they were backing a=20 reasonably well-organised military.
In Zaire the “white legion” is fighting=20 alongside an army more noted for inspiring=20 terror in the general population than in=20 the enemy. And the troops include ageing=20 gendarmes from Katanga’s abortive=20 secessionist war 30 years ago, who do not=20 even scare the civilians.
The obstacles that slowed the rebel advance=20 toward Kisangani are also likely to hamper=20 the government offensive. Soldiers and=20 supplies have to be moved to a front 320km=20 or more from the city on decrepit roads.=20 Supply lines will be long and vulnerable to=20 attack.
Perhaps as crucial as anything in deciding=20 the outcome will be the fate of President=20 Mobutu Sese Seko, who has spent most of the=20 past few months in France with cancer. If=20 he succumbs, the war for eastern Zaire may=20 prove not nearly as important to the army=20 as the battle to succeed Africa’s longest- serving autocrat.