Steve Morris : Rugby
It is one of the enigmas of the game of rugby that sides with all the potential and all the resources do not necessarily turn out to be the winners. This is certainly the case with this seasons Currie Cup.
There are any number of individual cases to choose from that underscore this hard fact of life, but perhaps the two teams who best typify the vagaries of the games fickle fortunes are the inaptly named Gauteng Lions and their Northern Transvaal neighbours.
As Transvaal, the Gauteng team were almost a sure bet for a spot in the Currie Cup final at the start of each new season for the past decade. Perhaps they could have won more often than they did, but there were mitigating factors such as the kicking abilities of a Northerns flyhalf named Naas Botha, a factor to which it is germane to return.
This season, the injury-battered Gauteng are struggling to stay in the hunt for a spot in the semi-finals. Despite the ravages of injuries which have unsettled the selections, they should just make it with a game in hand over both Griquas and Boland who currently lie ahead of them on the log table. But, to make sure, the Ellis Park outfit will have to win all their four remaining games.
Of these, Gauteng must be fairly confident of picking up the points and even the four-try bonus on offer this season against the Gauteng Falcons at home this Saturday, Northern Free State in Welkom the following weekend and Border at Ellis Park in a fortnights time.
The crunch comes in the final week of the run-up to the play-offs when they face Free State in Johannesburg, a game that perhaps is pivotal to the whole outcome of this countrys top provincial competition. For, while Gauteng have been one of the big disappointments of the campaign, Free State have been one of the revelations, carrying their Super 12 form through and producing some of the best rugby seen in a season that has been singularly without sparkle, except from the Bloemfontein Cheetahs and the resurgent Western Province.
Even Natal, once again on top of the log ahead of Province and heading inexorably towards another trophy, have been guilty of grinding their way through at forwards rather than combining this ability with the backline flair which has long been a hallmark of Ian McIntoshs coaching style. It has been winning rugby you cannot argue with a 100% record in 10 outings but there have been many times when it has been far from entertaining to watch.
Of more relevance to any comparisons between Natal and Gauteng though is the way McIntosh has managed to find players seemingly from nowhere when he has needed them. Winger Shaun Payne is a case in point. He came into Super 12 as a raw youngster and has emerged into the Currie Cup season as a player of real thrust.
Gauteng have had more than their share of injuries not least of them to skipper Kobus Wiese but there has been an amazing lack of depth apparent in several key positions.
But if Gauteng have battled, the Blue Bulls have all but withered under the fire directed at them this season. A player strike at the beginning of the year and some less-than-savoury manoeuvring of coaching staff, which included manipulating Kitch Christie in and out of the Loftus Versfeld hotseat, could not have helped.
But you get the distinct feeling that Northerns have never really recovered from Bothas retirement. In Clyde de Marigny, they have a player who has started to get the winning pattern of old going again, using his booming left boot to telling effect. But he has yet to find the confidence and consistency which made the Naas factor such a major part of the Blue Bulls of old.
Northerns have also had their problems on the field in terms of lost players through injury and the defection of a large slice of their back-up staff to the South Western Districts Eagles.
They have surrendered virtually any chance of making it, though with maximum points from their four remaining games they have an outside arithmetical shot of making the play-offs.
The first of those games this Friday is against a North West line-up which, while they have had only two victories in their campaign, have played some positive rugby and refused to lie down to any of the top sides.
Then Northerns face Griquas in Kimberley, a game that is anything but a sure thing on current form. Griquas have, ironically, used the dictum that the late Brigadier Buurman van Zyl installed at Loftus as something approaching writ, stick to the basics, keep the ball in hand and among the forwards, and only let your backs loose when the sweat is really dripping off the opponents.
Griquas are one of three sides the others are the superbly-drilled Boland under the guiding hand of Nick Mallet and Free State who look destined to fight it out for the chance to play Natal and Western Province for a slot in the final.
The weeks ahead promise to be four very interesting ones indeed.