Chris McGreal in Nairobi
It was all so familiar to more sceptical Kenyans. Under pressure from a disgruntled electorate at home and suspicious governments abroad, President Daniel arap Moi appeared to give away the store by agreeing to sweeping reforms before this years general election.
The government talked of a great moment in Kenyas history. Nairobis leading opposition newspaper heralded the concessions as promising a bright new future for the country.
Yet it is dawning on many Kenyans that after nearly 20 years in power, Moi is just as likely to remain their president as he ever was. This says you can have any reforms as long as they dont ensure free elections, said Gibson Kamau Kuria, a constitutional lawyer and leading campaigner for reform.
In practice, Moi has cut the ground from under Kenyas badly divided opposition by sacrificing long-term advantage for immediate political gain which will help perpetuate his power, just as he did before the last ballot five years ago.
The government has yet to set a date for presidential and parliamentary elections which must be held before the years end. But Kenyas opposition parties long ago realised that they were too divided to launch an effective campaign to unseat Moi.
A coalition of civic, religious and political interests took up the baton under the umbrella of the National Convention Executive Council. Recognising that Moi was likely to win the election, the council focused on constitutional reform in an attempt to limit his powers.
Kenyans swung their support behind the campaign, taking to the streets in sometimes bloody confrontations with the police. As the drive gained momentum, Moi was forced to act. He refused to deal with the council, but the ruling party agreed to talks with the parliamentary opposition. Last week, Moi promised to sweep away archaic colonial sedition laws which have been used for the 34 years since independence to detain without trial, ban meetings and break up protests.
Opposition parties are to have equal access to state radio and television. Banned political parties most notably Richard Leakeys Safina are to be legalised, probably by the end of next week.
Opposition nominees are also to be included on Kenyas electoral commission, which was widely considered to have ensured Moi got the necessary spread of votes to win the 1992 general election. Moi also opened the door to including opposition politicians in his Cabinet.
Parliament is expected to approve the reforms next month. Mois Deputy President, George Saitoti, was effusive. This is a reform package, a package owned by all political parties. We will be remembered for this in history, he said.
Yet on reflection, Moi appears to have given little ground. Most of the promised reforms will make little difference to the outcome of this years election. Crucially, he has so far staved off pressure to concede on the single issue on which he is most vulnerable.
The council is pressing for an amendment to election laws to ensure that the winning candidate garners at least half the vote. Moi won in 1992 with little more than one- third of the ballot. Opposition leaders want a run-off election between the two candidates who perform best. It could spell disaster for Moi if he were to face a single opponent. Leakey believes it is the one issue on which the Kenyan president will not concede.
Moi himself believes that reforms are purely a means of getting him out. Three years ago he told me that he would not agree to reforms because it is a way of getting rid of him. He will only go along with reforms to buy time, Leakey said.
The council dismissed the promised reforms as superficial and said it will press ahead with a general strike next month. Four prominent opposition leaders said they will continue their campaign to disrupt the elections. We shall make this country ungovernable in order to achieve the resignation of Moi, so that the appropriate and due reforms can be put in place, they said in a statement.
Opposition leaders such as James Orengo are sceptical that the promised reforms will be implemented. Moi is good at intervening when hes almost been pushed to the wall and coming out with some commitments which, in the end, remain unfulfilled, he said.
Others point out that it is one thing to change the law, another to respect it. The Kenyan government is regularly accused by critics at home and abroad of human rights abuses, particularly torture by the police. But other opposition leaders realise they have probably been outmanoeuvred.
MP Farah Maalim conceded that it will not be easy for the opposition to discredit the reforms and still carry public opinion. I think we have to be cautious at this point because if we say the changes are rubbish everyone will think that we are insensitive and have lost our heads.
Whatever the oppositions view, Moi has also bought himself time with foreign donors. The British Foreign Office welcomed the promised reforms. They will also help Moi in his wrangle with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) which cut off a 130- million loan in July because of continued corruption and bad governance. The World Bank followed suit by withholding its funds.
Although Moi was initially dismissive, saying the IMF loans did not amount to much, he was forced to respond when the value of the Kenyan currency slipped sharply and his economic advisers warned that the central bank may not be able to meet payments on Kenyas 4-billion foreign debt.
The back-slapping by foreign governments should strengthen Mois hand with the IMF. However, whatever the significance of the promised reforms, they are of scant comfort to those ordinary Kenyans who have fallen victim to an upsurge of politically inspired violence on the coast where more than 60 people have been killed and 100 000 fled their homes.
Kenyas Episcopal Conference has joined victims in accusing the government of a hand in the violence to drive opposition supporters from their homes. Talk of elections when many are leaving their work, homes and places where they registered to vote, leaves us thinking that these clashes are indeed the evil fruit of sadistic politicians.