LOCAL weather experts have spoken out against reports on Tuesday quoting a fertiliser company boss who claimed that the El Niño phenomenon is on the wane.
Neville Cross of Omnia Holdings said the effect of the El Niño phenomenon has been exaggerated and is already weakening. He said it disappeared entirely for about eight days in November, then returned in a much weaker form.
However, local weather experts dispute this, saying El Niño is on course to unleash a very hot and dry summer over Southern Africa.
Said Alec Joubert, director of the climatology research group at Wits University: “The general pattern is that the El Niño phenomenon is still very strong. In fact, at the moment it is the second strongest event we have ever seen.”
Meanwhile, Willem Landman, a specialist scientist at the South African Weather Bureau, said all of the bureau’s forecasting models point to a summer of “less rain and more heat”.
Landman dismissed Cross’s claims, saying it is impossible for El Niño to suddenly change into La Niña and then back again within a week. He said the phenomenon is affecting the entire African continent and has raised the temperature of the southern Pacific by four degrees celsius.
“The amount of energy involved in an El Niño is immense. For this thing to dissipate and get to the opposite (La Niña) phase normally takes months. The life cycle of an El Niño event is usually 12 to 18 months,” he said.
El Niño is expected to peak over South Africa early next year, cutting rainfall to well below normal levels in January and February. It is expected to disperse from March.