Mukoni T Ratshitanga
The National Party lost three municipal by-elections to the Democratic Party this week, indicating that the party’s support base among white South Africans is crumbling and raising questions about its future.
The NP polled 22,3% in its traditional stronghold of Bergvliet in the Western Cape – 48 hours after Gerald Morkel was sworn in as new provincial premier.
The DP scored 53% of the votes in the by-election, followed by 24% for the United Democratic Movement – an impressive showing which had the African National Congress in the Western Cape almost as excited as the UDM.
“The NP is a spent force, both nationally and provincially,” the ANC said. “Its defeat by both the DP and the UDM indicates that it governs this province with ever-decreasing legitimacy. It is simply a matter of time before the NP disintegrates completely.”
In a municipal by-election in Brakpan on the East Rand this week, the NP scored the lowest number of votes cast, with the DP scoring an easy victory.
But NP National Assembly MP Sheila Camerer disputed that the Brakpan victory was the DP’s. “A handful of AWB [Afrikaner Weerstandsbeweging] supporters were seen lining up to vote for the DP. Now surely, the DP does not have any significant support base outside the white community. We have that support,” she claimed.
Camerer called in a black NP organiser to confirm her claim. “I recognised these people were from the AWB because they were wearing khakis and, when I asked them to vote for the NP, they said they were voting for the DP because the NP is a dying party,” said Sabelo Zondo, an NP East Rand organiser.
DP federal council representative Douglas Gibson said the party’s victory signalled a dramatic swing from the 1995 local government election, when the DP won just 7% of the vote in Brakpan.
By Thursday morning, Camerer was not convinced her party would win a by-election in Rosettenville – her constituency. “Judging by the other results, we are not over- optimistic. We have also had a problem of low turn-out at the polls. The results are very disappointing,” she said.
Professor Robert Schrire of the University of Cape Town’s political science department warned against early conclusions being made based on the by-election results.
“One cannot read irrevocable trends from by-elections of this nature. Personalities matter in such elections, and we must remember people don’t vote the same way in the local elections as they do in the national elections,” he said.
But Schrire added this did not detract from the NP’s loss. “It is good news for the DP, but the real victors are the UDM, because they seem to have made some significant inroads in too short a time. Of all the opposition parties, they seem to be the only non- racial party.
“The bottom line is that white politics is a sideshow to the important political dynamics in the country. Until the UDM makes inroads into those communities, it will remain a sideshow.”
The UDM’s national press secretary, Annelize van Wyk, said her party’s peformance sent a clear message it was a serious contender in next year’s general elections.