FRIDAY, 6.30PM:
A MARKINOR poll released on Friday has revealed that the Democratic Party, Inkatha Freedom Party and United Democratic Movement stand neck-and-neck behind a declining National Party in their current levels of support.
The United Democratic Movement is the only party with the potential to usurp the National Party as official opposition to the African National Congress — despite the DP’s recent gains over the NP, only the UDM is likely to gain the essential black support needed to challenge the NP’s position.
Opposition politics are currently in considerable flux, with the NP having lost several key by-elections in the last couple of weeks and with its first MP defecting on Friday to the DP.
At present the UDM, NP and IFP each have a potential 5% of the vote.
The ANC, meanwhile, has lost 4% of its support since last November, dropping from 58% to 54%. The NP’s support has dropped from 12% to 10% over the same period. Undecided voters have increased from 12% to 14%, though it is expected that most will revert to their prior preferences when voting.
Growth rates for the UDM and DP over the same period were 1% and 2% respectively.
The Pan Africanist Congress increased its support from 2% to 3%. Azapo, which had had 1% in November, now seems to have no support.
Analysts believe that with its support at current levels, the IFP might well lose its dominant position in KwaZulu-Natal.
The DP is naturally upbeat about the poll results, saying it believes it is on track to become the official opposition. The party claims that it is more black than the Markinor results suggest, having at least 20% black supporters. More importantly, it claims to have shed its elitist image.
The National Party said the results raised the possibility of more provinces falling under the control of the opposition after the next election.
Only 40% of the NP’s support is white according to Markinor. The ANC, IFP and UDM all have black support in excess of 70%.