/ 26 June 1998

Currency regulation and the tooth fairy

Tony Twine

A tailpiece to a news bulletin a few years ago reported that a young child had lost his first milk tooth and had been instructed on how to liquidate his asset via the tooth fairy market.

Much to his delight, the tooth disappeared overnight, to be replaced by a shining R5 coin it was clearly a boom period on the tooth exchange.

So far, nothing wrong, but that was where the childs entrepreneurial spirit became a little too cynical his mother found him armed with a pair of his fathers pliers, ready to liquidate his entire portfolio.

Presenters Chris Gibbons and Michael Coulson had a chuckle over the item, one of them labelling it as coming from the Neil Kinnock school of economics. For economists, it does offer a warning that concepts like utility, exchange and value exist only in the mind.

Your mind, like your milk teeth, belongs to you alone. The values that we place on items are individually driven by our experience and expectations, or what we imagine either or both of those to be.

Our perceptions of value are little more than smoke and mirrors ephemeral at best, illusory at worst.

Anybody who has worked in a retail environment must have stopped to wonder why some customers spend so much on certain things; would-be authors wonder why publishers treat their gems as less than semi-precious.

Because we are all endowed with different mixes of assets, and needs which change from time to time, we trade assets whenever we need something and another party can be found who attributes the same value to an item that we do.

When millions of items of a similar kind are traded, we call it a market.

The prices at which transactions take place in markets are driven largely by herd instinct, which may account for terms like a bull market, which occur when the herd collectively believes that certain assets, often shares, are worth more today than they were yesterday, simply because they will be worth even more tomorrow.

This is particularly true in markets for intangibles and items where perceived values and intrinsic values are far apart, such as in the market for money.

Internationally, the herd has to place values on the currencies of other parts of the herd.

Two very unreliable factors enter into the value estimation process.

The first is a general inability to predict the future accurately, coupled with a fear of not having the right mix of instruments in reserve at some point in that uncertain future.

The instinct behind the herd as a whole will be to sacrifice assets denominated in less liquid currencies in order to hold more internationally tradeable assets.

Stoke up the flames of uncertainty regarding the future, and the rate of gravitation towards currency bases of least perceived risk will accelerate more rands and roubles per dollar, pound, mark and yen.

Like the kid with the loose teeth, the potential for monetary wealth generation sometimes makes the herd accept some socially questionable opportunity costs.

Speculative activities in markets may undermine legitimate processes aimed at wealth creation.

Some would argue that these costs are grounds for state regulation. But, while mom can confiscate the pliers, the promise of accelerating cash flows will keep little fingers busy.

Whatever is to be done, it is probably not worth cutting the kids hands off at the wrists to slow the process down.

Re-introducing foreign exchange controls would deter foreign investment, slowing long-term economic growth.

Where one would like to have some regulatory control is to prevent other kids exploiting a supply of loose teeth not belonging to themselves. Worse still would be the promotion of tooth-loosening.

Some might equate the latter to the activities of speculators against the rand and other currencies.

The question will always be how to identify genuine herd-like migration to safer currency pastures, as opposed to some fast work around the gums.

If you cannot differentiate clearly, regulations, particularly in the form of fences which discourage foreign capital inflows as much as they reduce vulnerability to exploitative speculation, will be as much a hindrance to legitimate monetary flows as a help in times of crisis.

Tony Twine is a director of the independent consultancy Econometri

@x Why its better together

Wally Lambert

If youre single and like to travel, youll have realised by now that lone travellers usually get the worst deals from the travel industry a situation which seems unlikely to change for South Africans in the near future.

Single supplement charges are common on holiday packages and can become grossly unfair when accompanied by the fact that at some destinations those travelling alone tend to get lumbered with the worst rooms.

A package tour to the Maldives, for example, will cost R4 790 per person if youre travelling with a partner. However, the same destination Kuredu, in this instance will cost the single person an extra R1 000.

Hoteliers argue that single people are less inclined to spend than those travelling as partners, with their restaurant and bar bills unlikely to match those of a couple.

Its the same rationale that causes those disapproving looks from restaurant staff when a diner requests a table for one the tip for the waiter is bound to be smaller than it would have been if a larger group had taken up the same table, or so they think.

What these hoteliers forget is that single travellers, while incurring the same overhead charges as those travelling in groups or as families, are unlikely to use as much hot water or linen and will eat only one breakfast.

Hotel accommodation without the tour element inevitably also works out to be more expensive for the lone traveller.

A typical nights accommodation in London will cost 100 per room, regardless of whether youre travelling alone or with a partner.

This means the single person pays double what a person travelling in partnership would pay!

South Africa appears to be a little behind the times when it comes to single travel, since trends in the United Kingdom suggest that growing demand from lone holiday-makers is persuading many operators to do away with the heavy single supplement.

But there are some ways to try and limit the single travel penalty.

The easiest, as far as tours are concerned, is to volunteer to share with another person, says travel agent Zack Bosman.

While this might not be ideal, it is likely to result in hefty savings in the case of the trip to Kuredu in the Maldives you can cut as much as 20% off the cost price by sharing.

Bosman concedes that there is very little to be done to save on holidays that are not tour related, with the accommodation surcharge difficult to avoid unless you can arrange ahead of time to travel with a companion.

While there is a Single Travellers Action Group active in the UK this was founded by Jean Jewell, who became outraged by the discriminatory service received as a sole traveller no such organisation exists in South Africa.

Not every tour operator or hotel will insist on a supplement or higher room charge for singles versus those travelling in groups, and a thorough search can lead to savings.

Bosman says there are few tour packages designed for the single traveller, and most of those that are available are of the swinging variety.

However, youth-oriented packages for solo travellers under a certain age are available for a number of destinations around the globe, with Contiki Tours offering a number of options in this regard.

South African Student Travel Services also has a good knowledge of special packages and flights available to young travellers and students, and can bring you up to speed with any specials that might be available at a given time.

Similarly, there are a number of package tours available for the over-50s, offering good deals for those travelling alone.

Also a good idea, if you can handle the pressure of last-minute departures, is to book at the last minute especially when it comes to accommodation.

Most hotel operators would rather have a room occupied by one person than see it stand empty, and late bookings can be a great way of avoiding single-person supplements.

Travelling off peak season is also advised for single travellers, who may then be able to cash in on lower prices for accommodation and air tickets, while avoiding the supplements.

Some operators offer low prices during periods that no one else might find attractive.

Visiting cities during their off season can translate into tremendous savings, excluding the benefits of lower accommodation charges, as retailers remove their tourist price lists.

There is no better way to avoid unnecessary discrimination as a sole traveller than shopping around for the best deal and that might mean abandoning the travel agent for some own research.

Who knows, you may even feel inclined to setting up a South African branch of the Single Travellers Action Group.