Donna Block : Share World
Not too long ago, Latin America’s stock markets were like the Brazilian carnival dancers: sexy with a whole lot of shaking going on.
From 1986 to 1996 no emerging markets were hotter than the Latinos. But the region once described as the emerging-market poster child has grown warts and facial hair.
These days investment gurus are quick to point out every flaw: low commodity prices in Chile and Venezuela, political uncertainty in Argentina, the possibly unstable currency in Brazil, bad weather in Peru, a money-laundering bank scandal in Mexico and disappointing earnings throughout the region.
The rags-to-riches-to-rags story has been nicknamed the “tequila effect”, after the Mexican economy which, following years of heavy foreign investment, had little to show for it but a nasty hangover.
Mexico is the third-largest country in Latin America. Its stock market, the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores (BMV), has the second- largest market cap after Brazil. It is heavily influenced, if not controlled, by Wall Street, and the leading source of investment is through American depository receipts (ADRs). These are shares of foreign companies held by United States banks, which issue the ADRs to be traded like stocks.
The BMV has a good track record but has been kicked around a bit since the country’s currency crisis in 1994. Still, there are bright spots and the star performer on the Mexican exchange is Grupo Modelo, the brewers of Corona beer, which overtook Heineken as the leading import to the US last year.
The largest country in the Latin quarter is Brazil, where there are two major exchanges, the Bolsa de Valores in Rio de Janeiro and the larger Bovespa in Sao Paulo, as well as seven regional exchanges. In all, more than 1 000 companies are listed, dominated by telecommunications, banks, energy and mining.
Brazilian markets have fared better than most. They responded quickly to market concerns by cutting their budget and putting privatisation programmes on fast- forward.
Argentina is one of Latin America’s most important markets and the region’s oldest. The country’s primary bourse is the Bolsa de Comercio de Buenos Aires. Economic reforms in the late 1980s and a privatisation programme in the early 1990s created a demand for Argentine stocks.
There are 10 other exchanges in Argentina, but Buenos Aires is by far the most active, with about 150 listings. The country had been recovering from a recession set off by the Mexican currency crisis when the Asian contagion struck – a double whammy.
Chile is said to be the “jewel of Latin America”. Its stock market, the Bolsa Comercio de Santiago, has had its ups and downs with the uncertain political climate. Chile’s market index is down 13% this year, mostly because 30% of its trade is with Asia and 30% of its exports are copper.
Columbian politicians seem always to be involved in scandal, usually related to the drug trade. But prospects are said to be good, despite political uncertainty and some concern about the economic effect the “assumed” demise of the drug trade will have.
Columbia has three exchanges, the Bolsa de Bogota, the Medellin Stock Exchange, and the Bolsa de Occidente in Cali. Between then they have more than 100 listings.
Venezuela is one of the region’s most volatile markets. Political upheaval has brought the economy to the brink and a stringent reform package has brought it back.
The country has two stock exchanges: the Caracas Stock Exchange, accounting for 90% of market volume, and the Maracaibo Stock Exchange. In 1996 the former was one of the best-performing bourses. This year it has been one of the worst, losing more than 30%.
But there may be a light at the end of the tunnel. The Madrid Stock Exchange and six Latin American stock markets are putting together a trans-Atlantic alliance that will provide Latin America’s largest companies with a direct link to European investors.
Next week: Eastern Europe