OWN CORRESPONDENT, Johannesburg | Friday 9.00PM
THE majority of the African National Congress’ majority will drop in the 1999 general election, according to a survey conducted in July. Survey company MarkData said on Friday the that poll indicated that 57% of voters would favour the ANC/SA Communist Party alliance — a 5,5% drop from the 62,5% polled by the ANC in 1994.
The National Party, expected to win only 10,7% of the vote in next year’s election, will be seriously challenged by the Democratic Party, at 10%, for the berth of official opposition, followed by the Inkatha Freedom Party (8,4%) and the United Democratic Movement (6,5%).
The figure of 10,7% for the NP represents a loss of about 50% of the party’s voter support.
The racial breakdown indicates that the ANC is by far the most popular party among black people with 72,9%, followed by the IFP (10,5%), the UDM (7%) and then the PAC and NP at roughly the same level of support (4,1% and 3,5% respectively).
The NP has the most support among coloured voters with 42,4%, followed by the ANC with 29,6%, the DP with 17,7% and the UDM with 4,4%.
Among Indians, support for the DP and NP is at 32,4% and 31,4% respectively. Both are clearly ahead of the ANC with 19,4% and the UDM with 10,1%.
Among whites, the DP has established a dominant position at 46%, eclipsing the formerly dominant NP (24,6%) by a substantial margin. The Freedom Front at 10,7% is in third position, ahead of the UDM (4,9%) and the ANC (2,6%).
Voter patterns by province indicates that the ANC still dominates the Eastern Cape, Free State, Mpumalanga, Northern Province and North-West, averaging 75%, but this is a clear decline compared with the average of well over 80% achieved in the same provinces in 1994. This is apparently due to inroads made into ANC support by the UDM, MarkData says.