Donna Block : Share World
For the past few weeks, my four-year-old son, an addict of British satellite television stations, has been driving me crazy, jumping off the sofa and the walls singing a jingle from a United Kingdom toy advert.
In a loud, off-key voice he proclaims over and over how, “It’s a great age for Fisher Price toys.”
The ditty became so implanted in my brain that last week, when I heard South African banks had dropped their prime rates, I suddenly imagined a bunch of businesspeople and bankers with runny noses and chocolate- stained suits waving deposit slips about while singing, “It’s a great age for interest rate cuts.”
Without trying to be facetious, the fact of the matter is that it really is a great age for interest rates cuts, not just in South Africa, but all over the world.
Much of the improvement in the world’s markets over the past few months is in fact due to a change in monetary policy, not only by the United States Federal Reserve Bank but also by central banks around the world.
Since the Fed first cut the discount rate (the borrowing rate for banks) on September 27, central banks all over the globe have followed suit.
It looks like every European politician wants his central bank to follow the Fed’s lead. Italy, the UK and Spain have already cut their rates, and in less than two months, the new European Central Bank will take over as the new rate-setting authority, bringing other European countries into line.
Lower interest rates are almost always good news for stocks because they mean reduced borrowing costs for the consumer and increased potential for higher profit margins for corporations.
There is now a relative calm in the markets, but there is also a fear that if another rate cut does not happen, markets could bounce off the walls again. The day of reckoning is November 17 when the chair of the Fed, Alan Greenspan, meets his fellow gatekeepers at a board of governors meeting to decide if another cut is on the cards.
If they do cut rates, it will be the third cut in seven weeks – the two recent cuts have propelled financial markets to recover substantially.
But, according to one New York analyst, even with another rate cut the crisis is by no means over.
Fed officials privately warned that the strong stock market recovery is based mainly on the expectation that corporate profits are on the rise.
This scenario may be untenable and impossible to maintain, since economies worldwide are slowing and sooner or later that will put a dent in corporate earnings.
Fed officials are also worried that private lenders have yet to regain the appetite for risk they lost during the turmoil in emerging markets. Even top-notch borrowers are struggling to get credit.
Painting the picture of a world economy that is far from out of the woods yet, Alice Rivlin, vice-chair of the Fed, said the beginnings of a recovery in Asia – where the global financial crisis started last year – were still tenuous.
She noted that Japan, the world’s number- two economy, was stuck in a recession while Russia remained “in terrible shape”.
“The basic situation around the world is still difficult, and I guess the best you can say realistically is that it’s not getting worse,” she said.
Most think this will bode well for further interest rate cuts. One US economist said “the trend is to lower rates, but whether he’ll [Greenspan] do it is another story. He may just wait and see how the market handles no cuts. The real key is going to be the all-American consumer.”
Spend, spend and spend some more. Mr and Mrs Average American’s attitude since the crisis hit seems to be “when the going gets tough, the tough go shopping”.
So far, their spree seems to be driving the US economy’s growth. In theory, if the Fed cuts rates again, consumers and companies would borrow more and spend more and this would stimulate the economy more. But if Americans smell a real recession looming, they may shelve those credit cards, and growth will slow dramatically.
A big problem facing manufacturers in both the US and Europe is that while shoppers are buying more, they are looking to pay lower prices. This bargain-hunter mentality has led to an upsurge in the purchase of foreign goods, mostly from Asia, whose cheap currencies have given USconsumers some real bargains.
While the price of Asia goods continues to drop, imports from Asia and Japan are on the rise, creating possible trade balance problems.
But lower interest rates alone won’t fill the shopping malls of the US. Interest rate cuts don’t put money in your pocket, it just makes it easier to use that fantastic plastic.
And those advocating another rate cut say that if share prices slide again, consumers will feel poorer, spend less and, heavens, they may even start to save again.
Sooner or later something has got to give. As the end of the year approaches, many businesses are looking at a combination of weak profits and slower growth. Budgets will be leaner and with that will come rising unemployment.
The growth of household income will weaken at a time when the wealth effect is waning and the consumer saving rate is virtually nil. That will increase the incentive to save instead of splurge.
The other side of the coin is that if interest rates keep coming down, consumers may not be deterred from carrying large amounts of debt.
Come to think of it, now may be the best time to get my son one of those Fisher Price toys to stop him from driving me nuts.