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Howard Barrell
Heavy pressure from Democratic Republic of Congo President Laurent Kabila’s military allies lies behind his statement on Wednesday that he is ready to open peace talks and sign a ceasefire with rebels. But security analysts and the rebels remain doubtful about Kabila’s seriousness in the search for peace in the war-ravaged Central African state.
Kabila’s declared commitment to peace came after a meeting with Chadian President Idriss Deby in N’djamena. Chad has 1 000 troops in the north-east of Congo supporting Kabila. The Chadians have recently suffered serious reverses in battles with a small rebel group, headed by Jean-Pierre Bemba, once loyal to Mobutu Sese Seko, Congo’s deceased former leader.
Kabila said in N’djamena that he was ready to open peace talks at home or abroad with the rebels and sign a ceasefire. His previous position had been that he would hold talks with the rebels only in Kinshasa, the Congolese capital – which he controls – and that he would sign a ceasefire only once all forces from Rwanda and Uganda, which have been backing the rebels, had been withdrawn from Congo.
The Chadian leader got Kabila to sign a joint communiqu in which Kabila also undertook to allow democratic activity in his country leading to fair elections. Kabila came under similar pressure on January 31 from Namibian President Sam Nujoma, whose country also has troops in Congo backing him.
Kabila’s other major African backers – Angola and Zimbabwe – also desperately need to withdraw their troops from Congo. The Angolan government is once again locked in a full-scale civil war with Unita. Zimbabwe is in the midst of its gravest economic crisis since independence and cannot afford its Congo intervention. President Robert Mugabe is also coming under domestic pressure to end his Congo adventure.
“Kabila’s got no choice,” said Jakkie Potgieter, West and Central African expert at the Institute of Security Studies at Midrand.
Kabila’s sincerity was, however, again called into question this week when he issued two decrees ostensibly allowing for free political activity in those areas of Congo under his control. His decrees require aspirant political parties to pay him large deposits and get permission from his government to hold public meetings, and provide for stiff penalties for non-compliance.
The prospects for peace in Congo were also not helped by the exclusion of the rebels from talks in the Zambian capital, Lusaka, this week dealing with a ceasefire and security guarantees for neighbouring Rwanda and Uganda.
The Rwandan representative to the Lusaka talks, the main backer of the largest rebel group, the Congolese Rally for Democracy, remarked: “We cannot discuss ceasefire modalities without the rebels. The rebels have never said they accepted [representation] by the proxy countries.”
South Africa, which made possible recent progress in the search for peace in Congo, is not represented at the Lusaka talks. Those attending the talks are Kabila’s regime, Angola, Namibia, Rwanda, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe.
Shortly before Christmas last year, South African Deputy President Thabo Mbeki brought Mugabe and Rwandan Vice-president Paul Kagame together for a secret meeting in Harare. That meeting made possible a conference in the Namibian capital, Windhoek, late last month of the main belligerents in the Congo conflict, except the Kabila government and rebels, at which those present agreed in principle to a ceasefire.
But a South African plan for peace in Congo, which was presented to Kagame and Mugabe at their December meeting and circulated among other African leaders, does not appear to form the basis of the latest moves to end the conflict.
Kabila’s communiqu on Wednesday spoke of the need for “the international community to support this peace initiative by sending peacekeeping forces under the aegis of the Organisation of African Unity and the United Nations”. The South African plan suggests a peacekeeping force made up of all the belligerents in Congo, including the rebels, under neutral foreign command.