the Congo
Howard Barrell
The Angolan government has withdrawn most of its forces from the Democratic Republic of Congo in recent weeks, because they are needed in the war against Unita. This leaves Congolese President Laurent Kabila’s regime dangerously exposed to a new rebel offensive.
Angola has pulled back troops, air support and logistics. This has also left Kabila’s other foreign military backers vulnerable, because they have depended largely on Angolan logistics to move their personnel and supplies around. It has prompted them to withdraw some of their own troops to safer locations.
Angolan government troops are under heavy pressure from Unita rebels on Angolan territory around M’banza Congo, which lies about 200km east of the important coastal oil-producing centre of Soyo, at Caxito, a few hundred kilometres east of Luanda in the central highlands of the country.
There are also indications that Unita may now be pushing towards Lobito-Benguela, the port and rail hub on the coast.
As the Angolans have withdrawn from the Congo, so anti-Kabila rebels have launched a three-pronged offensive there – in the direction of the city of Lubumbashi in the south-east of the country, against the diamond mining centre of Mbuji-Mayi in the east-central region, and towards Mbandaka, a major centre on the Congo River in the north- west.
The scale of the offensive is expected to increase as the rainy season is now nearing its close.
Zimbabwe is understood to have withdrawn most of its troops from Mbuji-Mayi, where they had begun to look isolated. These troops have now been moved right across the country towards the coast in the west.
There they are being redeployed at the river port of Matadi, which serves the capital, Kinshasa, and along the railway line between the two centres.
Regional security analysts believe the Zimbabweans may now be preparing for the final defence of Kinshasa.
Richard Cornwell of the Midrand-based Institute for Security Studies said there had been a marked change in the tone of statements being made by Kabila’s foreign military backers. “They are no longer saying: `We’ll smash you.’ Now the tone indicates something like: `We’ll settle for a draw.'”
Reports from Mbuji-Mayi suggest Kabila’s defence of the diamond-mining town is now largely in the hands of the former interahamwe forces responsible for the genocide in Rwanda and “a rather ragtag assortment”, in the words of one source.
The rebel assault on Mbandaka on the Congo River to the north of Kinshasa could be particularly significant. The town has a number of big barges that the rebels could commandeer to take them downriver to the capital, which is only a few days sailing away.