Chris Gordon
All the indicators suggest external backing for the war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is nearing an end, despite a flurry of hostilities in the last week.
A short summit meeting of the presidents of Zimbabwe, Angola, Namibia and Congolese Foreign Minister Abeloulage Ndombasi discussed the unilateral ceasefire declaration by Rwanda on June 2.
It was the second major breakthrough. In late May Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni signed a Libyan-brokered ceasefire with Congolese President Laurent Kabila in the Libyan town of Sirte. Ugandan troops have already began to pull out of Goma, Bukavu and Uvira.
But the rebels have been claiming military victories. This week they claimed to have captured the airport at Manono, Kabila’s home town.
Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe told the summit that he believes the war will end this year.
He added that the other allies backing Kabila – Angola and Nambia – will stay put for the time being. But he also accused Rwanda of violating its new ceasefire agreement by attacking Kabila’s allies near Lake Tanganyika in the last few days.
One of the most crucial factors in ending the war is that Uganda is no longer able to commit itself to such high defence expenditure. Uganda is reported to have spent 2,2% of its gross domestic product on defence and as a consequence the International Monetary Fund has delayed payment of $18-million.
It is clear there will be no winners. A further peace summit in Lusaka on June 26 may begin to produce real negotiations, if the rebels’ demands are taken seriously. This may leave the Unita rebels more exposed by the end of the year.