kick butt
Donna Block
October is upon us and it’s time to fasten those seat belts once again as the mood on Wall Street turns ugly.
It was little more than a month ago that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed at a record high of 11 326, up 23% since the beginning of the year and 32% from the same time last year.
But one month later and 1 000 points lower it appears that Goldilocks is about to get kicked out of bed as the three bears (declining dollar, rising interest rates and Y2K) take over the cottage once again.
But why are we surprised?
Even though the DJIA (which is made up of only 30 stocks) and other major indices have performed spectacularly, the majority of stocks have been declining for the past year. The raging bull market has actually been limited to a handful of shares.
According to one market analyst in New York, if the Dow 30 had followed the track of the broader market since the beginning of the year, it would be trading below 5 000. Moreover, only 38% of the stocks on the New York Stock Exchange are up on the year and only 24% of the Nasdaq shares have posted gains since December.
It seems that those sly bears have quietly been making their way back but nobody paid much attention. Until now.
The major stock indexes have been losing ground most recently on fears that a stumbling dollar might reignite inflation and dampen enthusiasm for United States equities among foreign investors. Money is starting to pour out of US stocks and bonds and into the surprisingly robust Japanese stock market. And without foreign capital, Wall Street will lose much-needed fuel.
Market watchers agree that in addition to the falling dollar the recent rise in interest rates and the continuing “fear of the Fed” have put a lid on the potential for market gains for the rest of this year. Traders fret that the continued strength of the US economy will prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates yet again when they meet early next week.
Then there’s Y2K, a problem which for most investors is more psychological than fundamental. The potential for a computer meltdown on January 1 is one worry too much for some investors. The logic: it’s safer to sit on the sidelines.
This has caused liquidity problems in the corporate bond market and put a lid on stocks. Moreover, as the US markets took one of their worst drubbings in history, they also lost their last bastion of strength, the semiconductor sector.
That segment tumbled a day after an earthquake hit Taiwan – a major production center for the chips and components used in computers.
To add insult to injury, Microsoft president Steve Ballmer sent the market reeling by telling reporters he believes technology stocks are too pricey.
“There is such an overvaluation of tech stocks that it’s absurd,” he said at a conference of the Society of American Business Editors and Writers. “I would put our company and I would put most companies in that category.”
Investors took Ballmer’s words to heart and started dumping shares. But shedding a portfolio of Internet and tech stocks is not as easy as it sounds. Because Internet stocks have performed so spectacularly their shares play a big role in the major stock indexes, and thus contributed greatly to rout in the markets.
Some investors are, however, unperturbed and view the battered markets as a wonderful opportunity for bargain-hunting.
Consumer products, drug and computer company giants are battered and waiting for an excuse to rally, remarked one broker. Combine that with expectations for stellar third- and fourth-quarter earnings, and there’s a strong chance stocks could rebound.
But what of the current volatility?
Economists feel this could be a blessing in disguise as the market’s decline could convince the Fed that an interest rate increase isn’t necessary. Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan has voiced concern over the lofty levels of the stock market, and said last month that the Fed would keep an eye on the market. Last week’s plunge, some analysts reason, could convince the Fed that the stock market, at least, has not reached inflationary levels.
However there is still reason to be cautious. As one trader said last week “there is very little optimism on the street” and that the warning lights had been flashing for some time. “This market really needs to correct – many stocks are overvalued and they need to get in line with their earnings,” he added.
Many analysts are taking a cautious stance and now agree that the Dow will close out the year well short of its August 25 high of 11 326. They are slightly more bullish about the forecast for 2000, with a Dow target of 12 000. Still that is only 700 points of upside potential over the highs.
One thing is certain, Goldilocks seems to have overstayed her welcome and the bears will be eating porridge for the next few months.