It’s still north versus south in this weekend’s World Cup quarter-finals, writes Andy Capostagno
The pecking order of world rugby will be decided this weekend in the four quarter-finals of the Rugby World Cup and there is a very clear demarcation line to be drawn. If the three teams that contest the Tri- Nations are among the four who will contest the semi-finals, the world game has not moved on in four years since the last World Cup. If one, two or three of the Sanzar nations are ejected, however, the world will have been turned upside down.
For as much as the International Rugby Board would have us believe that rugby is now a world game, the fact of the matter is that the World Cup has come down to a squabble between a handful of teams who know each other very well. The South Sea islanders came, saw and were conquered, ditto the European sides below the level of the Five Nations.
What is left, with the possible exception of Argentina, is very familiar territory and if the game is to be truly marketable as anything other than a north/south divide one or more of the northern teams has to do more than compete; it has to win.
The best chance lies with England in Paris, against a Springbok team bereft of ideas and unhappy with its own constituent parts. But England were roughed up fairly considerably by Fiji on Wednesday and that will count against their chances, as will having to play away from Twickenham, a ground that is worth 10 points to them against the best sides in the world.
With the best will in the world it is impossible to think that Scotland can hold New Zealand to a respec-table scoreline at Murrayfield. Without John Leslie for all but an hour of the World Cup the Scots have been revealed as something about as close to a one-man team as it is possible to be in a 15-man game.
With Leslie there may have been a chance for the midfield which worked wonders in the successful Five Nations campaign last year to expose the one glaring weakness in this All Black side. Without Leslie the glimmer of light at the end of an All Black tunnel might as well be an oncoming train.
But New Zealand are not unbeatable because of the mentioned weakness, which lies in the link between Andrew Mehrtens at fly-half and the outside backs. Alama Ieremia at inside centre is the main problem. His distribution of the ball seems to take second place to holding it up and making big hits on the odd occasion that the opposition are able to move the ball down their own back line.
This means that the whole point of playing the gifted Christian Cullen at outside centre is lost. It is, however, a crumb of comfort: if the All Blacks do find a way to put their outside backs away on a regular basis no team in the world will live with them, certainly not Scotland.
What the World Cup really needs is a minor miracle in Cardiff where Wales take on Australia. For one thing, this is the only quarter-final between two teams who knew who they would be playing as soon as the pool stages ended. They have had time to prepare, rest battered bodies and come to terms with the idea that defeat at the Millennium Stadium is not an option.
Australia will start as favourites because they have been there and done that. In the 1991 World Cup they thrashed Wales 38-3 at the old Cardiff Arms Park in their most impressive pool performance by far. Considering that the Wallabies struggled past Samoa 9-3 and Argentina 32-19, the Welsh could consider themselves somewhat hard-done-by.
But in those bad old days, Wales were done by everyone and considering their last performance ended in defeat to Samoa it might be assumed that optimists are in short supply in the principality about now. It is now or never for the host nation, however, and the knowledge that if they go out Cardiff will be home to foreigners for the last two weeks of the tournament should galvanise Wales.
They know they can compete in the scrums and that in Neil Jenkins they have a goal-kicker second to none. Where they will not prosper is in one-on-one situations against the Wallaby backs. The key to beating Australia has been the same for the last four years; bottle up George Gregan and they can’t play.
Unfortunately, Gregan has a habit of laughing in the faces of would-be assassins and giving good ball to his backs come what may. It will be up to his opposite number, Robert Howley, and the two flanks, Brett Sinkinson and Colin Charvis, to try and ruin his day, and hence ruin Australia’s. It’s a tall order, but with a passionate crowd behind them, Wales know how to win at the Millennium Stadium, as the Springboks will testify.
The most unpredictable of all the quarter-finals is that between France and Argentina at Lansdowne Road. In this tournament and, in fact, for the last 12 months, France have been appalling. Without two of the forwards who have pretensions to holding them together – Fabien Pelous and Christian Califano have both been banned for thuggery against Fiji – they are scarcely likely to raise their game against the Pumas.
In 1995 Argentina had the best pack at the World Cup and through a mixture of bad luck and poor options they managed to lose to England, Italy and Samoa by identical margins – seven points. This time around the famed “Bajada” scrum is a thing of the past.
But they have worked out a method, one that largely involves taking advantage of penalties conceded by the opposition through the unerring boot of Gonzalo Quesada. It may be considered a fairly dull and uninspiring method, but for those looking for champagne rugby, look elsewhere. This World Cup has reached its knockout stage and from now on it is not a question of how, but how many.
The SA Rugby Annual 1999, edited by M&G rugby writer Andy Colquhoun, has been published by MWP Media Sport. The authoritative rugby yearbook costs R49,99 and is on sale at major booksellers and rugby stadiums