Ivor Powell
A SECOND LOOK
As fighting flares up again in the war- torn Democratic Republic of Congo, and international diplomats engage in ever more frantic efforts to patch up the Lusaka ceasefire agreement, the question increasingly being asked is whether there actually was any ceasefire in the first place.
Speaking in Uganda this week, Jean- Pierre Bemba, leader of the Ugandan- backed Movement for the Liberation of Congo (MLC), one of three main rebel groups which control more than half of the sprawling and unruly country, put into public words what security analysts have been suggesting since July when the Lusaka agreement was concluded.
Declaring the Lusaka agreement signed by the various belligerents in July and August “null and void” after attacks by Laurent Kabila’s troops in the North Eastern Equatoria province, Bemba said: “Kabila signed the ceasefire to get a breathing gap to reorganise and rearm his troops.”
The strategy is one Kabila successfully employed during the first phase of the war, in 1997 – with his Angolan allies fighting decisive battles outside Kinshasa, while Kabila himself stalled peace talks on the SAS Outeniqua, moored off Pointe Noire in neighbouring Congo (Brazzaville).
The signals are that he has used the same sly diplomacy again. This week, after dallying for months with a group of some 40 United Nations representatives seeking to implement the terms of the Lusaka ceasefire agreement, Kabila abruptly ordered them out saying he could no longer guarantee their safety.
Meanwhile, the establishment of a joint military council – drawn from the ranks of the various belligerents and mandated in terms of the ceasefire agreement to oversee disarmament – has yet to move beyond the drawing board.
Only South Africa has so much as pledged funding – a modest R1-million – towards its implementation.
Kabila’s rearmament has been interpreted as a prelude to a full-scale renewal of war, aimed at breaking the fragile standoff which has left the Democratic Republic of Congo divided into four separate spheres of influence.
It has apparently also been planned to work in tandem with the Angolan government’s month-long offensive against the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (Unita) – as part of a regional shakedown which could see the balance of power dramatically affected.
As set out in a map presented by Congolese Rally for Democracy (RCD) Goma faction leader Emil Ilunga to a security seminar in Washington DC last month, the south-east of Congo currently falls under the control of his faction of the RCD – and accordingly within the economic as well as social purview of the Rwandan government.
As leading political researcher William Reno has noted, this state of affairs merely re-establishes traditional economic and social patterns. Even under Mobutu Sese Seko, more than 90% of the economy of the then eastern Zaire flowed eastwards into Rwanda and Uganda in defiance of colonial borders.
The central eastern region is controlled by the rival and Ugandan-backed RCD faction led by Ernest Wamba dia Wamba, while the north-east, held in stasis by the MLC, is effectively part of an extended Uganda. Only a relatively narrow western and south-western strip of Congo currently falls under the control of the supposed national government of Kabila.
But this could all change as the ceasefire fails. Bemba was joined this week in renouncing the ceasefire by Kisangani-based RCD leader Wamba dia Wamba.
Though the other branch of the divided RCD – that based in Goma – has not formally repudiated the ceasefire agreement, a representative for the group was quoted recently to the effect that “cannon will roar again because of Kabila”. He indicated that the RCD would resist in the event of any attack.
Meanwhile, evidence has come to light that the Kabila government has used the breather provided by the ceasefire to build up its arsenals.
Recent purchases include MiG jet fighters, largely from Eastern European suppliers. The MLC claims other weaponry has come from guns-for-minerals deals with China and North Korea.
The apparent build-up confirms recent reports by security analysts, notably the Marek Enterprise which last week warned that “the Kabila government has commenced implementation of its first major military offensive of the Congo war”.
According to London’s authoritative International Institute for Strategic Studies, the Kabila government has already spent $250-million on defence this year, and is believed to have about $150-million earmarked for warmaking in reserve.
With about 56 000 troops under arms, as compared to Uganda and Rwanda’s 30 000 to 40 000 each, Kabila still commands the largest army in the region.
Marek reports that Kabila’s planned offensive was to target, in particular, the Rwandan-backed faction of the RCD, based in Goma.
In what appears to have been an attempt to isolate the Rwandans – and exploit tensions in the strained alliance of two decades between Rwandan strongman and Vice-President Paul Kagame and Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni – Kabila dispatched emissaries last week to Kampala with a message of conciliation, and possibly the offer of deals.
But it appears that Kabila was not successful, for the time being.
Statements released after discussions between Ugandan and Rwandan leaders reaffirmed the old alliance – as well as the commitment of both backing countries to the Lusaka ceasefire.
However, it remains to be seen whether the Ugandans would indeed intervene on behalf of Rwandan-backed rebels – against whom, confusingly, they fought a war- within-a-war in the middle of the year – if the Kabila offensive were to be launched in earnest.
While the ceasefire seemed still to be holding, other regional dynamics have been unfolding. As the Mail & Guardian reported last week, the Angolan government’s offensive against rebel leader Jonas Savimbi’s Unita has spilled over the country’s borders into alleged attempts to destabilise neighbouring Zambia.
This week, intelligence agencies continued to keep a close watch on developments after the killing of Zambian opposition politician Major Wezi Kaunda deflected attention away from a rumoured coup plot against Zambian President Frederick Chiluba.
Zambia has been identified as the one country in the region which continues to keep open logistical and military supply routes in defiance of tightening UN sanctions.
Angolan troops have also reportedly moved into position inside the south-eastern parts of Congo, supposedly in pursuit of Unita guerrillas operating from bases inside Congolese territory.
In addition to these, it is uncertain whether any of the estimated 4 000 Angolan troops guaranteeing the area around the diamond capital of Mbuji Mayi were in fact withdrawn, as the ceasefire stipulated.
Moreover, recent reports indicate that, far from withdrawing his troops from Congo (as earlier promised), Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe has since sent in some 2 000 reinforcements.
This is on top of about 10 000 troops, as well as armoured vehicles and aircraft, already stationed inside Congo, according to official Zimbabwean figures.
Though the Zimbabwean government claims it pays out only $3-million per month on the war effort, leaked department of finance documents reveal a cost of nearly 10 times that amount – $27,7-million a month.