Howard Barrell and Barry Streek
New National Party leader Marthinus van Schalkwyk may be the ultimate victor as the African National Congress’s desperate bid to exploit the firing of maverick Western Cape MEC Peter Marais fizzled out this week.
A plot to give Van Schalkwyk a seat of power – the premiership of the Western Cape – has been developed among senior NNP members, particularly among the experienced and wily former party organisers who wield considerable influence in the party, and especially in the Western Cape.
It is felt that both the NNP and Van Schalkwyk have been marginalised since the Democratic Party became the official opposition in Parliament, and the more charismatic Tony Leon began capturing the headlines.
However, to avoid a messy squabble and remove an ambitious pretender to the NNP throne, the rebellious and unpredictable Marais had to be removed from the scene.
The technical grounds for suspending the social services and poverty relief MEC were provided by Marais himself.
Although he had pledged loyalty to Premier Gerald Morkel after losing the party election for the Western Cape leadership, Marais has regularly challenged the NNP leadership, first by publicly attacking members of his own caucus for not voting for him, and then by publicly suggesting the party’s future lay with linking to the ANC.
Marais, who has been low-key since his demotion from the local government portfolio in the provincial cabinet after the June 1999 election, has also been sidelined within the party, despite his public claims that Van Schalkwyk supported his approach.
The ANC’s Western Cape leader Ebrahim Rassool claimed this week that five NNP provincial legislators would vote for the ANC only if there was a secret ballot – hardly evidence that Marais has much support in the NNP’s provincial caucus.
With declining support and morale, as well as indications that the ANC could do better in the local government elections in the Western Cape – and particularly in the Cape Town megacity – in November, the NNP leadership knew it had to take action.
The first stage was the removal of Marais on grounds of his indiscipline and challenges to the provincial leadership. Initially, it was felt that it was preferable to have him inside the party tent and pissing outside, rather than the reverse, but that has changed, particularly once it was decided that the party’s best option was to appoint Van Schalkwyk as provincial premier.
It is not clear at this stage how deeply Morkel is involved in the plot, but insiders feel he may well have been part of the plans.
The Western Cape premier is well-liked and respected within the party, but he knows, as does the rest of the party leadership, that the November 1 local government elections may well be the NNP’s last chance of remaining a serious political player. Apart from some small rural district councils in the Western and Northern Cape, the NNP could be dealt a death blow if it loses the Cape Town metro elections.
With high voter registration among African voters and low registration among white and coloured voters, clearly declining popularity and a resurgent DP, it has its back against the wall.
So a dramatic gesture – making Van Schalkwyk provincial premier and rewarding Morkel for his loyalty, perhaps by giving him Van Schalkwyk’s position in Parliament – is seen in influential quarters as the NNP’s best option.