Barry Streek Although Cape Town has grown significantly faster than other metropolitan areas during the 1990s, the scale and seriousness of the challenges facing it represented “a loud wake-up call” to all its citizens and stakeholders, the local unicity commission has said. A bleak scenario for the unified Cape Town, to be formed later this year out of six local councils and a metropolitan council, could unfold if current social, economic and ecological trends continued. The Western Cape had the highest rate of
crime in murder, attempted murder, common assault, residential and business housebreaking and motor vehicle theft, the commission said in a discussion document, Developing the future City of Cape Town. HIV/Aids and tuberculosis loomed as a major threat to the youth of the city, which before 1996 had 39 local authorities and 19 sepa-rate administrations. “In just eight years’ time, HIV/Aids will become a bigger killer than all other causes of death combined. The spread of HIV/Aids threatens to increase the number of orphaned children at risk for crimi-nality, prostitution and other problems related to social breakdown.” The population growth would be concentrated among the poorer section of the population and the proportion of people below 25 years of age would increase. Already, close to 43% of the population was younger than 21. The significant growth of Cape Town’s economy was based on a relatively diverse range of sectors, with strong growth potential in the knowledge, information and service sectors, especially tourism. It also had strong IT, financial and communications infrastructure.
“At the same time, there are major negative trends that reinforce social divisions and inequality and act as a brake on the economy.”
This included a decline in traditional manufacturing sectors, such as the clothing sector, in the face of global competition; high unemployment; and a skills gap between the demands of the new growth sectors and the skills of the labour force. “In a global economy which is becoming increasingly knowledge based, only 15% of the people in Cape Town between 18 and 65 have more than a matric.” A result of these trends is that there is an increasing income inequality as well as the growth of a substantial informal economy, which currently consisted of about 18% of the economically active population. “Compared to many cities in South Africa, metropolitan Cape Town is in a favourable position in terms of service infrastructure levels. Indeed, it should be possible to address the historical backlogs and new demands within the foreseeable future and to achieve service equity within a framework of financial responsibility. “Ninety-one per cent of households have refuse disposal once a week. Ninety per cent make use of a flush or chemical toilet. Eighty-eight per cent of households use electricity for lighting and 80% for cooking. Ninety-eight per cent have access to piped water.” However, almost all households that lacked access to these services were black households and the city was marked by massive spatial inefficiency, inequality and growth patterns that reinforced urban sprawl and social division. The housing backlog stood at 221E200, with new household formation at 26 000 a year, of which close to 80% were for households with incomes of less than R2 500 a month. There was also an urgent need for safe, affordable and efficient public transport. “Our spectacular environment features and our unique floral and marine biodiversity make tourism in Cape Town a major growth sector.
However, this critical asset is also under pressure from pollution, lack of public awareness, population growth and urban sprawl.
“Taken together, these trends point to a negative future scenario unless we can effect major changes in our economic and social realities. “Our young fast-growing population will increasingly be outside of formal employment, will generally fail to achieve adequate education and skills qualifications, will easily be tempted by crime and will have a 50% likelihood of contracting HIV/Aids. “The scale and seriousness of the challenge
represents a loud wake-up call to all citizens and stakeholders,” the commission said.