The HIV-Aids epidemic has yet to make its full impact on the South African economy and productivity, according to the Medical Research Council’s (MRC) Dr Debbie Bradshaw.
Briefing the National Assembly’s arts, culture, science and technology committee on Tuesday, she said the number of people infected with HIV was projected to increase from the current six million to around seven to eight million by 2006.
Although new infections were then expected to decrease, it would not do so enough to disappear completely.
However, the number of people developing full-blown Aids was now beginning to increase and Aids deaths should peak around 2010.
Bradshaw said the majority of Aids deaths would be in the young, economically productive age groups, which would impact on the whole economy, and affect population age patterns.
Apart from the costs, such as to the country’s health services, business and industry would have to contend with increased absenteeism and the loss of skilled workers.
The education sector would also suffer, with teachers succumbing to the disease, and children leaving school to work or look after ill family members.
South Africa’s mid-1980s population growth of 2,5% to three percent would probably decline, but this would depend on migration, she said. – Sapa