This year will build on much that was done last year. David Shapshak examines innovations that will make news this year
What will be the new killer app? This is the perennial question that computer makers, the telecommunications sector and their associated industries are always asking about new applications. This year will be no different, nor will the hype for new products be any less vibrant. But if last year was all about introducing these new concepts and services, hopefully this year will see their widespread and mainstream implementation. Telecommunications both in the burgeoning cellphone market and wireless arenas will merge its offerings with the computer industry, as the stars of the 1990s the cellphone and the Internet increasingly converge. These are the trends to watch out for this year.
Wireless wonders
Wireless communication and connectivity is going to continue being the hot favourite as the next big thing. Last year promised many wonderful new technologies but this year is set to deliver them.
There have been upbeat projections for the current darling of the tech world: mobile and wireless networks. Yes, 50 years after families huddled around the “wireless” to hear the news or sports commentary, the wireless wonder of cellphones and the promise of the mobile Internet have users crowded over their phones.
Principally the cellphone is the main point of contact most users have with the worldwide telecommunications infrastructure. It’s usually on, is easier to use than a computer, cheaper per individual handset to use and can make calls.
The growth of the cellular industry in Africa, where terrestrial phone networks are expensive and prone to copper-cable theft, has been exponential. One analyst put the growth of the subscriber base at 50% last year. While pure voice communication is an unheralded boon for the continent, so is the expectation of mobile Internet access, anywhere, anytime.
Mobile payment systems, touted as part of the next wave of mobile commerce, show how the phone can be used as a means of verifying an online transaction.
“We want to have the phone as a trusted device,” says Kevin Burrows from British mobile services company SmartTrust. Demonstrating an application running on a Compaq server in Germany at last year’s ITU Telecoms Africa conference in Midrand, he used a computer’s Web browser to order a CD online. The payment request was then sent to his mobile for confirmation, where he keyed in a PIN and the transaction was processed.
Siemens showed a similar wireless payment gateway, which can use any interface from SMS, WAP, to Web browsers or the interactive voice response (IVR) systems used by cellphone service providers to choose from menus. “It’s completely easy to use and is secure,” says Siemens’s Dietmar Springer.
Such applications could have untold benefits in Africa, where cellphones often outnumber bank accounts and are devices, unlike other handheld computers, that are usually always on and always with its owner.
ACI, which makes software that runs 75% of the world’s ATMs, is running a pilot scheme in Spain where a payment request is sent to a person’s phone for confirmation using GSM technology. A scenario would involve a shopper giving their cell number instead of a credit card number. The request would be acknowledged with a PIN-coded SMS reply and the person’s account debited, be it their bank account, credit card, cellphone bill or pre-paid card.
“It doesn’t take much imagination to see a cellphone provider running banking services but partnering with banks. A big cellphone operator has more cellphones in people’s pockets than credit cards, and can create a business model for enabling payment devices,” says ACI technical consultant Ray Lockwood.
For corporate networks, the star is rapidly rising for the enigmatically named 802.11b, which is the standard for wireless networks. No more costly cable installations to redo if you change your floorplan.
For the home user, there is the promise of the personal area networks, small wireless networks for the home and a variety of handheld devices that will use a version of 802.11b and Bluetooth, the much-vaunted wire-replacement radio system that will do away with the endless cables connecting computer components, and let mini-computers like cellphones and personal digital assistants “talk” to each other.
One wireless hopeful is WorldSpace, which transmits digital radio, requiring a souped-up radio with a small satellite receiver. Not only is the signal clearer but the download facilities promise the ability to download websites or other data especially during the quieter, early-morning hours.
GPRS
General packet radio service (GPRS) is the present holy grail: a super-fast, always-on network that will allow much faster connections than current landline modems, enabling such things as sending pictures and even video conferencing. Motorola has already demonstrated a pilot project in South Africa that achieved lightning fast connections. This speed makes a mobile version of the Internet a distinct reality, although much work will need to be done on the appropriate kinds of services and how to bill consumers for them.
When GPRS will roll out in South Africa is still a matter of contention. The initial outlays for the networks are massive, which is why service providers are cautious. The services through super-fast data speeds made possible by the GPRS upgrade to existing GSM cellular networks are certainly impressive.
“Vodacom plans to roll out GPRS commercially sometime during the course of 2002,” says Joan Joffe, group executive for corporate affairs of Vodacom.
MTN say its will be going live sometime in the second half of the year, while Cell C expects it in the middle of the year, but notes that users will require a new GPRS-enabled phone and SIM-card upgrade. “The success of GPRS technology will depend on the development of appropriate applications that meet consumer expectations of data speed and value,” a Cell C spokesperson says.
Siemens demonstrated a system that monitors your home and lets you close or open blinds or any other electronically enabled device in a future wired home. If there is an intruder, the system will send you a message that someone is in your house, but knows not to “panic” if it’s just your cat. “It’s not possible yet to send video but it can send a picture,” said Regis Miqueu, an exhibitor at the ITU event.
DSL
Broadband is the equivalent leap in Internet-access terms from using a step ladder (a dial-up modem) to a skyscraper elevator (super-fast access by ISDN or DSL). Consumer level digital lines, known as DSL, have been available in the United States and Europe for many years, while once war-ravaged South Korea is the most wired country in the world because of its aggressive broadband uptake. Telkom says it will make an announcement next month about DSL and that it should be available in the first quarter.
How it can be made affordable is another problem, as some of the US services have proved either prohibitively expensive or undersubscribed.
Interactive television
The TV, no matter what gains cellphones and the Internet have made in the past decade, is still the centre of the home. Hence the rush of interest to soup up the platform. The most exciting offering is a range of video recorder/satellite decoders, known as personal video recorders (PVRs). These will allow you to record directly to a built-in hard-drive, “pause” live broadcasting events (especially sports) and resume watching where you left off and have a variety of other useful features. Multichoice is starting in a few months with a range of services in the interim step towards their PVR launch next year, including access to your e-mail, catalogue shopping and an extended electronic programme guide. All use a simple TV interface that remains the easiest-to-use service.
Games platform
While there are always many claimants for the next big thing, one of the most compelling is the gaming console. Sony has its market-dominating PS2 but Microsoft has weighed in with the Xbox, which has had rave reviews for its extremely life-like play. “It’s got great graphics. You can actually see the football players sweat,” said one geeky teenager who stayed awake all night so he could buy one of the first devices when they went on sale in New York.
Games alone are big money ask the other platform-maker Sega, which was forced to withdraw from the market after failing to curb PlayStation’s lead and concentrate on making games alone but there is the potential to turn the console into a home entertainment centre. Both play DVDs, but the Xbox needs an additional plug-in. Microsoft is so keen to erode Sony’s grip on the market that it is selling the Xbox for $100 less than it costs to make it.
Bill Gates claimed that 1,5-million of the devices were shipped in the six weeks before the end of the year, but PS2 is well entrenched in the market and has a loyal following.
The Internet
It was once called “the information superhighway” and spoken about in reverential tones. The global network of linked computers has certainly changed the world, certainly the communications industry.
While US academics tinker with the idea of a newer version of the Internet that will link about 140 universities and US government researchers at much higher speeds than the World Wide Web, it is being envisaged as the high-speed backbone necessary for business applications such as monitoring a production line in real time video transmission and other data-intensive applications. This may be some way off but the advances made in enabling everyday devices with an Internet presence have already arrived.
One of last year’s great developments was the emergence of Net-enabled devices from San Francisco buses with their own Web page courtesy of HP (that tell commuters exactly where they are and whether they are on time) to LG’s R80 000 Internet-accessing, e-mail-reading fridge. Forget to cook dinner? Well, just access your home website and instruct the microwave to defrost and cook the chicken dish you placed in it that morning; or start the washing machine; or use any of the other devices that can now have a Web presence.
Instant messaging has taken up the ease of rapid communication enabled by the original killer app, e-mail. The chat software that originally just let you type messages can now send an SMS or do video conferencing handy and (unlike e-mail, which is routed via a mail server) direct between the two computers.
Voiceover IP (Internet protocol) is certain to continue playing a role, as it allows for voice signals to be carried, very effectively, over the data lines of the Internet; but erodes the revenue streams of telecoms utilities like Telkom, who are dead set against it.