Mobile networks appear to be the most appropriate for the continent with faster roll-outs than fixed-lines and at a lower cost
David Shapshak
For years the statistic used to illustrate the low telephone penetration into Africa was to equate it with the number of phones in Manhattan. All 54 countries on an entire continent had fewer phone lines (estimated at some 200-million) than a single state in the United States.
But while that is probably still the case, it is dramatically different with cellphones.
Africa, like South Africa, has a thriving cellphone market and most countries boast impressive cellular coverage that has taken a fraction of the time to reach it compared with the years of fixed line operators’ business.
The International Telecommunications Union (ITU), the United Nations telecommunications regulatory body, announced this month that the number of cellphone users in Africa leapt to 30-million last year from just 2-million in 1997 a staggering growth by any standards.
The focus has moved from wiring up Africa which was a pet project of former minister of communications Jay Naidoo, who drove from Libya to Cape Town to publicise how the Internet could jump start Africa into the digital age to “the unwiring of a continent”, as the ITU puts it.
At its Telecoms Africa conference, held in Midrand last year, the ITU said that “as a result of the explosion of mobile, the number of African countries with more mobile than fixed telephone subscribers is growing”.
In its African telecommunication indicators for 2001, it said that by the end of 2000, 17 countries were in this group. “The rapidity by which this is happening is astounding in a number of countries within one year after the launch of a new mobile network.
“It is estimated that before the end of 2001, there will be more mobile than fixed subscribers on the whole African continent. Incredibly, one forecast estimates almost 100-million mobile users in Africa by 2005, or three times the number of fixed-Iine subscribers.”
Yoshio Utsumi, the ITU secretary general, referring to the reach of new mobile networks said: “Africa’s new voice can be heard in the streets, in the shops, on the beach, in cars and in trains. In short, Africa’s new voice can be heard in every place where there are Africans.”
Utsumi also considers 2000 to have been a milestone year for sub-Saharan Africa in terms of fixed-line growth. The region passed the 1% teledensity mark in that year with 1,2 fixed-line phones for every 100 people. The ITU considers 1% both a psychological line and a minimum point where telecommunications can start to contribute significantly to economic growth.
However, cellular growth is still a bigger factor than fixed-line and presents much more investment opportunities for operators and great payoffs for customers.
“Growth rates vary from country to country, but on average Africa has grown almost 50% a year in the past few years,” says Dobek Pater, an analyst from South African research firm BMI-TechKnowledge. “North Africa in particular has been exhibiting strong growth rates in the past year.
“With the growing liberalisation of African telecommunications markets, smaller operators are appearing on the scene, providing niche market services primarily in bigger urban centres, using almost exclusively wireless technology to quickly connect clients and exploit the huge pent-up demand for means of communication.”
He adds that other wireless deployment such as satellite transmission for Internet access as well as terrestrial wireless local area networks that can be rolled out at a lower cost and more quickly than cable/wire networks is also growing, although for niche markets.
The ITU is spot on when it says that “mobile networks are the most appropriate in the African context”.
“They are quick to install and the introduction of prepaid mobile cards is a big plus for a continent where incomes are low and cash upfront is generally the preferred means of payment. Prepaid reduces operator risk due to bad credit and allows many who would not normally qualify for a post-paid service to have mobile service. On the continent as a whole, four out of every five subscribers use prepaid almost twice the global average.”
Pater concurs, saying the advantages of cellular are manifold.
“It is mobile, for one, therefore a person is not tied to one spot. This is particularly suitable for a business environment, but also for many Africans who often are transient and have no permanent or formalised dwelling. Also mobile networks can be rolled out a lot faster than fixed-line at a lower cost.
“In sub-Saharan Africa mobile services are 90% to 95% prepaid, with the exception of SA, where the ratio is more like 66% prepaid and 34% post-paid.”
MTN was praised by the ITU as a pioneer who is “stringing together regional networks that are shattering the conventional wisdom that the problem with Africa is a lack of investment”.
Paul Edwards, group CEO of holding company M-Cell, says MTN has been “extremely successful” in Africa.
“For example, its operations in Swaziland, Uganda and Rwanda were all profitable within 18 months of their launch in 1998. Despite political and financial challenges, Africa is ultimately a rewarding market and one that MTN regards as an exciting growth market, particularly in communications.
“MTN believes this shows that contrary to popular belief (especially outside Africa), wireless technology is not an elitist luxury but has real and immediate benefits to citizens in emerging markets. Ghana, where M-Cell subsidiary Orbicom launched a wireless electronic banking network in October 2001, is a good example. Ghanaians can now use debit cards to perform many financial transactions online and citizens no longer have to carry bags of cash around to pay for daily activities.”
Indeed, there is a strong movement that believes the ever-present mobile phone could become something of a mobile wallet affecting what are termed micro-payments for small items, such as bus tickets or drinks from vending machines. As the cellphone bill is already itemised, it makes this easier to achieve.
This is just one of the advantages of cellular over fixed-lines. Data services made possible by the super-fast next generation of cellular networks, known as 3G (third generation), will make it possible to get Internet access via mobile phones.
“The total mobile market in Africa will grow to 200-million by 2010, a reasonable percentage of which will undoubtedly be 3G users,” said Dr Bernd Eylert, chairperson of the UMTS (universal mobile telecommunications systems) Forum, which represents the 3G technology.
The forum predicts 3G revenues on the continent will exceed $7-billion in 2010 and will be “vital in bridging Africa’s ‘digital divide’, offering a cost-effective route for operators to deliver Internet access to the region”.
First off, however, will be general packet radio services (GPRS), which is expected to be rolled out in South Africa in the course of the year.
“From a consumer perspective, wireless provides a new dimension of security, flexibility and availability,” says Edwards. “In addition, the benefits of these from a business perspective should be positive on productivity, [for example] sales people in the field can be contacted all day long and can do more business straight away without having a delay through returning to their offices, getting messages, returning calls.
“Cellular networks can immediately take advantage of advances in technology, [for example] VAS (Value Added Services). Other points to consider are that GSM [global system mobile the cellular network in South Africa] is more flexible and allows for a faster roll-out. It is also less susceptible to theft and vandalism and more cost-effective to roll out in rural or low-density areas.”
South Africa’s three cellular providers are ideally positioned to invest in Africa. MTN currently has operations in South Africa, Nigeria, Cameroon, Rwanda, Uganda and Swaziland.
Vodacom has invested in Lesotho, Tanzania and the Democratic Republic of Congo, and is “looking for other opportunities”, says Joan Joffe, the group executive for corporate affairs.
Cell C’s corporate communications executive Zeona Motshabi says: “As a new operator, of just over two months, the focus for Cell C is on South Africa. We have no plans to expand into Africa at this time.”
Pater says: “Investment in telecoms in Africa remains a viable option. The demand for services is still great and the amount people spend on communications as part of their income is significantly higher than in the developed world, therefore GDP per capita alone is certainly not an indicator of how much wealth exists in a country.
“Also, African informal economies (unreported) are often almost as big as formal economies. Africa, despite its periodic bouts of violence, is also considered as a safe haven in comparison to some of the developed parts of the world plagued by terrorism and frequent natural disasters.”
The scope of MTN’s investment demonstrates this viability of venturing into Africa.
“As of March 31 2001, MTN had invested about $390-million as equity into its African operations outside South Africa ranging from as little as $2,9-million for a 30% interest in MTN Swaziland to almost $280-million for its equity investment in MTN Nigeria,” says Edwards.
“All these operations have some debt financing on top of the equity investments. From a return perspective, a key criterion for investing in Africa is that projects exceed certain hurdle rates [and/or] internal rate of return relative to the risk profile of the country. However, these returns are achieved over the lifespan of a project.”
Pater says the financial worth varies. “In general, it normally takes a few (three to five) years to turn a profit from operations in a market. MTN in Uganda, for instance, turned a profit within three years of starting operations and considers this very good and fast.
“Vodacom’s profit margin is 17%, which is not all that great if one compares it to 30% to 50% profit that service providers in other service industries are often able to generate.”
South African markets are quickly becoming saturated both for providers of services and equipment vendors, he adds. “Expanding into Africa is essential for any company wanting to retain healthy growth over the medium to long term. Most big South African companies in the telecoms sector have either already taken this route or are preparing to do so.
“No wonder the ITU titled its 2001 mobile indicators ‘the unwiring of a continent’.”