Drew Forrest
President Thabo Mbeki is in a suffocatingly tight corner in the aftermath of a deeply flawed Zimbabwe presidential election, which returned Robert Mugabe for a fifth term by a 500 000-vote margin.
By late Thursday, more than 24 hours after the results had been announced, Mbeki had significantly not pronounced on whether the election reflected the will of Zimbabwe’s people. Western diplomats said his stance on the election could make or break the New Economic Partnership for Africa’s Development (Nepad), the African recovery plan he is driving.
The presidency said Mbeki was consulting world bodies and governments and had already been in touch with United Nations secretary general Kofi Annan and the United States government. He would not comment before receiving reports from the South African, regional, Organisation of African Unity and Commonwealth observer missions.
However, Mbeki appeared to rule out any punitive response by insisting South Africa had “an obligation to assist Zimbabwe irrespective of the outcome of the elections”.
His cautious stance was welcomed by Australian Prime Minister John Howard. The two men, together with Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, make up the “troika” of leaders charged with deciding the Commonwealth’s election stance on the strength of its observer team’s report.
The fear in Western diplomatic circles is that the troika will not be able to reach agreement despite the Commonwealth observer team’s finding, announced yesterday, that “conditions did not adequately allow for a free expression of will by the electors”.
The Nigerian observer group has endorsed the election and Obasanjo is reportedly planning to try to persuade Europe and the US to accept the result.
One set of pressures on Mbeki is domestic. The South African observer mission under Sam Motsuenyane endorsed the poll as “legitimate” and the African National Congress enthusiastically acclaimed Mugabe’s victory.
Arriving in Harare yesterday Deputy President Jacob Zuma restated South Africa’s satisfaction with the South African observers’ findings, saying that “those discrediting Zimbabwe’s electoral process should listen to what Africans are saying”.
Sources said the South African parliamentary observer team was expected to split along party lines, with ANC members endorsing the poll at a meeting of the team next week.
Mbeki will also be wary of breaking ranks in a context where the international response to the Zimbabwe poll has been largely polarised along racial and “north-south” lines.
The election result has been welcomed by the Kenyan, Zambian and Chinese governments, as well by Namibian, Nigerian and Organisation for African Unity observers. The only dissenting African voice has been the Southern African Development Community’s parliamentary observer team, which found that the election did not meet SADC standards.
In contrast, US Secretary of State Colin Powell said there was “overwhelming evidence the election was neither free nor fair”. The European Parliament was to hold an emergency debate yesterday on a motion calling for the international community to reject the poll, proposing “further measures” against the Zimbabwe government and urging Mbeki to show “real leadership” and take tough action.
British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw was expected to make what a diplomatic source described as “an extremely hard-hitting statement” in the House of Commons on Wednesday.
Mbeki is acutely conscious of the reactions of the G8 countries’ on which Nepad, and his personal attempts to rehabilitate Zimbabwe in world financial circles, critically depend.
The Nepad plan entails an expansion of Western aid and trade access in exchange for African self-policing on governance and democracy.
Western diplomats expressed “disappointment” with Africa’s response to the election yesterday, saying it seemed to be driven by racial solidarity and support for an African liberation icon, rather than concerns for good governance and democratic practice.
The United Kingdom’s deputy high commissioner in South Africa, Andy Sparks, would say only that the British government was “very interested” in how Mbeki would react. A Western diplomatic source, who asked not to be named, said: “Tony Blair is sympathetic to Nepad, but if Mbeki rolls over on Zimbabwe, British domestic opinion may leave him little room for manoeuvre.”
The diplomat said it was unrealistic to expect the developed world to separate Nepad and the Zimbabwe election, as urged by South Africa’s deputy foreign minister, Aziz Pahad.
He expected the US and many European countries, particularly Scandinavia and West Germany, also to view “Zimbabwe and the African response to it as an acid test of the continent’s commitment to democracy”.
It appears South Africa is still pinning its hopes on the formation of a government of national unity embracing the opposition Movement for Democratic Change. Indeed, government sources said a way out for Mbeki might be to accept the election, but press publicly for a unity government.
There was little sign of conciliation, or a softening of pre-election strong-arm tactics, by Zanu-PF or its supporters on Thursday. New land invasions were reported in Chinhoyi, Banket, Raffingora and Chegutu, with farmers being given an hour’s notice to vacate. The MDC complained that the house of one of its MPs, Bethel Makwembere, had been teargassed and raided by police.
The editor of the Zimbabwe Independent, Iden Wetherall, estimated that in Harare alone 350 000 of a potential 800 000 voters almost the margin of Mugabe’s victory had been denied the right to vote.
Of equal significance, Wetherall said, was Zanu’s improved showing in MDC strongholds in the 2000 parliamentary elections despite worsening economic conditions. “These are areas where Zanu militias had free rein. It reflects their success in delivering the peasant vote.”
Wetherall said there was deep frustration, particularly among the urban youth, over the poll. But the heavy security force presence in urban areas made large-scale civil commotion unlikely. “We have no tradition of peaceful protest in Zimbabwe, and the MDC has made it clear it will not go to the streets,” he said.
Observers in Zimbabwe are pessimistic about Mbeki’s response, pointing to the public statements of his senior ministers in Zimbabwe. Minister of Safety and Security Steve Tshwete said last Friday he was impressed with electoral arrangements. Commenting on the arrest of MDC secretary general Welshman Ncube, Minister of Labour Membathisi Mdladlana said he had very serious charges to answer and should cooperate with the police.
In its preliminary report the Commonwealth mission slammed the activities of Zanu-PF paramilitary youth groups, finding that they unleashed “a systematic campaign of intimidation and violence” against MDC supporters.
The observers also found police failed to probe reported cases of violence and intimidation, particularly against the opposition. Thousands of Zimbabweans were disenfranchised by the electoral registration process and the wide discretion of the registrar general.